Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

As I said earlier:

If your phyco dad sent you to kill your next door neighbor and you've never agree with the plan in the first place, you are probably not going to try very hard.

[Coldstream]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

[GeneralMacArthur]

This isn't Iraq in 2003, that's for sure. The Iraqis weren't prepared to die for Saddam even if they weren't always fans of the US.

As an interesting data point, a poll taken in 2005 showed that 50% of Iraqis believed the country was better off then than it was under Saddam, with 27% missing Saddam and 23% not sure.  In 2019 the same poll was 47/35.

In spite of this:

However, polls soon indicated that 53% of respondents said the United States wanted to “occupy Iraq and plunder its wealth,” while 25% stated the United States wanted to fight Islam, 15% said the United States wanted to divide Iraq and 15% said the United States wanted to achieve democracy. By 2004, 84% of Iraqis participating in the survey said they considered the United States an “occupying force.”

Just shows how much Iraqis hated Saddam that they thought the country was better off being plundered by a crusader state than suffering under the Baath regime.

[Storr]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496975432519983107?s=20&t=z4E1xL77...

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1496978193617600514

There will be a bombardment of Kyiv in roughly two hours. I'd never thought there would be anyone I'd hate more than Trump, but Putin's up there.

[It’s so Joever]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496975432519983107?s=20&t=z4E1xL77...

I hope this is correct about the low morale.

[Badger]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496975432519983107?s=20&t=z4E1xL77...

I hope this is correct about the low morale.

 You and me both, but it frankly sounds like total propaganda.

[Frodo]

if Kiev does eventually fall, the legitimate Ukrainian government should make Lviv its new capital, and fight on from there.  

[Beet]

If this war doesn't go well for Russia, Putin is finished. Everything he has built up in the last 22-23 years will be gone. Ironically his career will have begun avenging one failed Russian intervention (Chechnya 1994-96) and ended with another one (Ukraine 2022-??).

The Russian armed forces have come a long way from the group that was beaten back from Grozny in 1996, but a country of 40 million people is not some podunk Caucasian wannabe republic.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496975432519983107?s=20&t=z4E1xL77...

I hope this is correct about the low morale.

 You and me both, but it frankly sounds like total propaganda.

"Low morale" can mean a lot of things. I'm sure most Russian soldiers do have lower morale than most Ukrainian soldiers, given that the Russian soldiers are ones who've been ordered to invade a culturally similar country based on BS historical axe-grinding and half-assed false flags, but that one desertion/surrender that was claimed earlier in the day seems unfortunately to have been an isolated case (so far).

[Dereich]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496975432519983107?s=20&t=z4E1xL77...

I hope this is correct about the low morale.

 You and me both, but it frankly sounds like total propaganda.

"As of 2021, all male Russian citizens aged 18–27 are subject to conscription for 1 year of active duty military service in armed forces, but the precise number of conscripts for each of the recruitment campaigns, which are usually held twice annually, is prescribed by particular Presidential Decree." If these Russian soldiers are mostly 1 year conscripts I wouldn't be surprised if they weren't super happy to be in battle. 

[Frodo]

And as a public service, here is a detailed map of Ukraine to help everyone keep track of where everything is as this conflict continues:

[Cassius]

I’m pretty sure these Russian troops who are currently engaged are the professionals (the Russian army is much less reliant on conscripts than it once was), which makes me highly sceptical of these reports of surrendering and low morale (especially since that’s obviously the kind of impression the Ukrainian government would want to create).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

And as a public service, here is a detailed map of Ukraine to help everyone keep track of where everything is as this conflict continues:

Thank you very much, good Sir.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I’m pretty sure these Russian troops who are currently engaged are the professionals (the Russian army is much less reliant on conscripts than it once was), which makes me highly sceptical of these reports of surrendering and low morale (especially since that’s obviously the kind of impression the Ukrainian government would want to create).

Not the first time I've said this, but it's important not to take the Ukrainian goverment's official line as unconditionally true at face value. No government should be treated that way.
If anyone remembers the Nagarno-Karabakh conflict, that had a lot of this stuff as well, but in time the fog of war cleared and the truth was revealed.
Modern wars are not fought just in the field, but also on the internet. Information, social media, narratives...these can be quite valuable things.

[Storr]

if Kiev does eventually fall, the legitimate Ukrainian government should make Lviv its new capital, and fight on from there.  

If even Lviv falls, there's Mukachevo which is separated from the rest of the country by the Carpathian Mountains. All non-mountainous routes to reach the region are from friendly NATO allies to the west and south. If the Russians continue struggle this much to advance across flat territory, I don't see how they'll be able to make it across the entire width of a mountain range.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I’m pretty sure these Russian troops who are currently engaged are the professionals (the Russian army is much less reliant on conscripts than it once was), which makes me highly sceptical of these reports of surrendering and low morale (especially since that’s obviously the kind of impression the Ukrainian government would want to create).

Per a podcast discussion among alleged experts last week, Russian conscripts mostly perform support functions while combat is undertaken by contract soldiers.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.

The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?

That would be roughly 1/6 to 1/3, given reports stated there were almost 200k. Though honestly from what we've seen so far I'd guess the real figure is closer to the smaller number.

The last claim I saw from the Ukrainians was 60,000.

Probably the best comparison in modern history is with the invasion of Iraq, though of course there are big differences. On the one hand, Russian bases surround Ukraine so they have much easier access to strike Ukrainian installations than the US did. They also have a much higher tolerance for casualties, though it certainly isn't limitless. But on the flipside the Ukrainians are much more motivated to fight than the Iraqis were and with MANPADS they can put up a strong resistance even if their fixed emplacements are cratered. In urban combat it isn't clear Russian forces could win without extremely heavy losses or Grozny style mass bombardment. Where the Ukrainian Army is concentrated they seem to have generally held their own, particularly in the government held portions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The biggest issue the Ukrainians have is that they can't afford to defend everything at once. Even if they manage to win a victory here or there they're highly vulnerable to having key lines of supply cut off from the north and south, negating the need to fight a protracted battle for Mariupol or other well defended cities.

[Aurelius]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

No. Soldiers fight for their buddies in the unit and their lives. Plus rigorous training to act as indeed. Political unpopularity won't affect morale after significant time, not 24 hours in.

Not to mention I question how unpopular the war really is. The demonstrations are relatively sparse, and the average Russian, happily brainwashed by uncontridicted state media, probably tends to share the nationalist "Russia is surrounded by enemies and must attack in self defense" mentality.

Yeah, this. Everything we're seeing from news anchors who are saying "I talked to all my friends in Moscow and none of them support the war" or even "I walked around Moscow and everyone I talked to said they are against it", suffers from a biased sample. It's like going around diplomatic row on DC, asking people if they like Trump, and generalizing to the whole country based on that.

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnonews/status/1496993097225547778?s=21

RIP Martyrs

[Omega21]

Not really the time for memes, but this is simply too perfect

[jaichind]

At Japan PM Kishida's press conference he was fairly evasive on what actions Japan will take.  All questions on what steps or changes in policies Japan will take beyond some very limited sanctions produced the same response from Kishida "It is a very serious situation that affects the international order including Asia. We must show our intention not to allow the change of the status quo by force." 

Of course back in 2014 Abe was eager to get Russia's help on the return of the Northern Islands so Japan did not join in the sanctions.  This time around there are some nominal sanctions.

[Storr]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

No. Soldiers fight for their buddies in the unit and their lives. Plus rigorous training to act as indeed. Political unpopularity won't affect morale after significant time, not 24 hours in.

Not to mention I question how unpopular the war really is. The demonstrations are relatively sparse, and the average Russian, happily brainwashed by uncontridicted state media, probably tends to share the nationalist "Russia is surrounded by enemies and must attack in self defense" mentality.

Yeah, this. Everything we're seeing from news anchors who are saying "I talked to all my friends in Moscow and none of them support the war" or even "I walked around Moscow and everyone I talked to said they are against it", suffers from a biased sample. It's like going around diplomatic row on DC, asking people if they like Trump, and generalizing to the whole country based on that.

I saw a Euronews report this morning from Rostov and the reporter said they couldn't find a single person who disagreed with the official line that war is necessary to defend the country.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At Japan PM Kishida's press conference he was fairly evasive on what actions Japan will take.  All questions on what steps or changes in policies Japan will take beyond some very limited sanctions produced the same response from Kishida "It is a very serious situation that affects the international order including Asia. We must show our intention not to allow the change of the status quo by force."  

Of course back in 2014 Abe was eager to get Russia's help on the return of the Northern Islands so Japan did not join in the sanctions.  This time around there are some nominal sanctions.

Japan's foreign policies are heavily influenced by its role as an American vassal state. In practice it's much like an Asian Germany in terms of its overall role in the region, and it falls under the American security umbrella for protection. This means that because there isn't a major issue standing in the way of Japan joining America's line on this topic, it is thus likely having to join in sanctions. It doesn't have to copy what America is doing, but it does end up having to take one or two steps in that direction.

Japan used to have Russia as its main opponent, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Self-Defense Forces have shifted their focus to China and countering its rise (as well as North Korea).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bnonews/status/1496993097225547778?s=21

RIP Martyrs

That makes me so incredibly sad and angry at the same time.