Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looks like Hostomel airport has been recaptured by Ukraine, which is big. Means Russia will have to push to Kyiv overland now.

How recent is this news you are posting?
The recapture story has gone back and forth for the last couple of hours now.

Seems retracted again, sorry.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496948163797819394?s=20&t=Tqueb2TF...

[Silent Hunter]

Reports the An-225, the largest plane in the world, has been destroyed at Hostomel.

[StateBoiler]

Looks like Hostomel airport has been recaptured by Ukraine, which is big. Means Russia will have to push to Kyiv overland now.

How recent is this news you are posting?
The recapture story has gone back and forth for the last couple of hours now.

Seems retracted again, sorry.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496948163797819394?s=20&t=Tqueb2TF...

The story on control of the airport has gone back and forth a few times. We'll know in the morning.

[Hope For A New Era]

Looks like Hostomel airport has been recaptured by Ukraine, which is big. Means Russia will have to push to Kyiv overland now.

How recent is this news you are posting?
The recapture story has gone back and forth for the last couple of hours now.

Seems retracted again, sorry.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496948163797819394?s=20&t=Tqueb2TF...

Control of the airport has gone back and forth a few times. We'll know in the morning.

I am slowly losing my mind obsessing over this airport

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't completely trust what either side says about who has control over Hostomel until there's good evidence besides "he said, she said".
But it's simultaneously quite interesting to see the spin being put out by political figures here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Keystone XL wasn't even going to be operational for another decade and was not going to import additional oil.  It was just a shorter and more efficient route for Phase I which already exists, importing that same oil over a longer route.  Furthermore, even if you+Crenshaw weren't lying, that oil did not disappear.  It just remains in Canada, which is on our side in this conflict.  A pipeline just moves oil from place to place, it does not *produce* oil.  If we had 830,000 extra barrels of oil coming in from Canada every day, then that would be 830,000 barrels fewer that Canada has, and maybe they'd be the ones importing from Russia instead of us.

It's very tiresome that Republicans have seized on this as their way to undercut Biden in a moment when we should be having national unity, but also very frustrating because it's based on misinforming people.  And you ought to be better than getting behind these lazy Fox News cheap shots at a time like this.

Then impose tough  sanctions on Russian oil .

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

Good, if Ukraine can't win with official military forces, they should drag Putin into costly asymmetric warfare. Sooner or later this would hurt his standing on Russia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

Good, if Ukraine can't win with official military forces, they should drag Putin into costly asymmetric warfare. Sooner or later this would hurt his standing on Russia.

It's definitely fair game for Ukraine to use Russia's methods against it.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Dan Crenshaw doesn't understand how energy markets work. It's entirely irrelevant whether or not the US imports 0 barrels of Russian oil or 1 million barrels of oil if there is a global market in trade of a product: markets clear and prices regulate allocation of oil supplies from country to country. In the grand scheme of things, Keystone XL would have an utterly negligible effect on global oil production and this determines the price paid at the pump.

Also, ironically, Keystone XL would be, on net, bad for the very oil fields in Crenshaw's home state. Of course, he represents a city with a reputation for refining oil so his stance isn't incoherent but there is something strange about the idea of American oil and gas workers cheering for a pipeline that would primarily benefit Newfie migrants in Fort McMurray, Alberta...

[jojoju1998]

My Marine Corps Reserve Cousin says his unit " might " be deployed to Europe for " something ".

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

Good, if Ukraine can't win with official military forces, they should drag Putin into costly asymmetric warfare. Sooner or later this would hurt his standing on Russia.

Yup and in urban asymmetric warfare , tanks and air advantages no longer help you anywhere as much either .

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1496944661256097793?t=Tl0-GOlpOZeZ8VE2e...

Good, if Ukraine can't win with official military forces, they should drag Putin into costly asymmetric warfare. Sooner or later this would hurt his standing on Russia.

If Ukraine is conquered, it should be made a morgue for the invaders. I would also find it turning into a MMORPG of GoldenEye to be acceptable too. Always loved shooting those Russian soldiers in the dick.

[Bismarck]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

[Silent Hunter]

I am slowly losing my mind obsessing over this airport

I had never heard of it until today. Warfare teaches you geography, I've often found.

[Orwell]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

We know  all

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Fog of war is a real thing. We don't know much yet, but there certainly fighting going on.

[jaichind]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

[Person Man]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Fog of war is a real thing. We don't know much yet, but there certainly fighting going on.

Unless you disable it in the settings. But yeah. It's a real thing. You would think our eyes in the sky would make it less, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

Markets also give you a sense of how robust western economies are in the face of these sanctions, and thus how capable the western populations are of enduring their impact.  If you ask me, a 10% drop in our markets in exchange for a 50% drop in the Russian markets is something I'd happily accept.  But that's not the case for many people.  However, an 0.7% rise in markets?  Nobody's gonna complain about that lol

[StateBoiler]

I wouldn't completely trust what either side says about who has control over Hostomel until there's good evidence besides "he said, she said".
But it's simultaneously quite interesting to see the spin being put out by political figures here.

The thing is it's Ukrainian sources that are going back and forth. They could have lost initially and then are throwing fresh units at it I suppose.

[President Johnson]

International Atomic Energy Agency is concerned with Chernobyl, though German news sources report that apparently nothing was damaged at the site so far.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1496923111022804992

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't completely trust what either side says about who has control over Hostomel until there's good evidence besides "he said, she said".
But it's simultaneously quite interesting to see the spin being put out by political figures here.

The thing is it's Ukrainian sources that are going back and forth. They could have lost initially and then are throwing fresh units at it I suppose.

Interesting.
In that case we could reasonably assume, though not with total confidence, that  they have lost the airport, then tried to regain it over and over.

[compucomp]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

[Drew]

Also, the FAA is prohibiting U.S. flights from flying over Ukraine, Belarus, and much of western Russia.

https://twitter.com/thepointsguy/status/1496920099202252803?s=21

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

What does this have to do with the thread?

It matters because economic sanctions are a big part of the current struggle between Russia and collective west.  Financial markets be it equities FX energy etc etc gives you a glance with the likely economic impact of these sanctions are likely to have on the various economic players.

I was chatting with a colleague about the recovery in the market in the afternoon, and there's another possibility for it that this forum is not going to like: Ukraine collapses and surrenders very quickly, there is minimal destruction and bloodshed (because they lost so fast), and we're back to BAU before long.

Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info.
What does BAU stand for?