Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DavidB.]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Stay safe, man. Praying for you and for Ukraine.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg news: Russian Stock Market Rout Wipes Out $250 Billion in Value

Russian equities down to where it was at the beginning of the pandemic. 

[Logical]

Russian Air Assault at a military airport close to Kyiv. 30+ helicopters. Going for the head.

[Cassius]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

So how are you going to get funds to ‘opposition groups’ if you also support draconian sanctions to cut the Russian economy off from the West? How will you prevent the Kremlin from impounding these funds? Most importantly, what ‘regime’ do you want to bring in in Moscow? Who will it be comprised of? Will the army be on board? The security services? How will you make it legitimate to those Russians who aren’t emigrés or living in the Petersburg/Moscow bubble?

I think this escalation by Putin may well be an overreach that brings harm to the Russian people as well as those of the Ukraine. Nonetheless, talk of the West attempting ‘regime’ change in Russia  is foolish and irresponsible, especially if it percolates up to people holding actual positions on power in western countries.

[President Johnson]

German News report that Russian forces are moving towards Kyiv. I think Putin's goal is to oust the entire Ukrainian government, which he views as pro-Western fascists, and install a pro-Russian puppet government.

If I had to guess: Zelensky and his government will soon be forced to go into exile (Poland, UK or Germany, I'd say) and there will be two Ukrainian governments, the official one in exile and a puppet regime in Kyiv. That's what it will come down to.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

So how are you going to get funds to ‘opposition groups’ if you also support draconian sanctions to cut the Russian economy off from the West? How will you prevent the Kremlin from impounding these funds? Most importantly, what ‘regime’ do you want to bring in in Moscow? Who will it be comprised of? Will the army be on board? The security services? How will you make it legitimate to those Russians who aren’t emigrés or living in the Petersburg/Moscow bubble?

I think this escalation by Putin may well be an overreach that brings harm to the Russian people as well as those of the Ukraine. Nonetheless, talk of the West attempting ‘regime’ change in Russia  is foolish and irresponsible, especially if it percolates up to people holding actual positions on power in western countries.

It's not foolish and irresponsible. It's what's necessary.

[jaichind]

At this stage hopefully this is a rerun of 2008 Georgia where the Russian military achieves limited Russian political goals and the fighting can stop and Russian forces can pull back.  Sadly, the talk from Moscow seems to indicate the political goals are not limited so this might drag out for some time. 

[CumbrianLefty]

It will be the end of Putin.

Well, many across the world will be hoping that you are right.

[T'Chenka]

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

Somebody else pointed out tonight that TECHNICALLY Russia was never appointed to the Security Council. The USSR was and then Russia wasn't kicked off the council after USSR became Russia. But by legal technicalities, Russia could be theoretically removed because it never went through the proper process or received approval of the UN to be on the council.

[jaichind]

Boris Johnson says there will be "massive package of economic sanctions".

The core question still will be "will Russia be able to sell energy to the collective West and get paid for it?" Yes or No.  If Yes then nothing is "massive"

[Helsinkian]

Would this be enough to spark a revolution to overthrow Putler? Or is there a mistranslation, or something?

https://twitter.com/lilygrutcher/status/1496594912665604101

[jaichind]

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

Somebody else pointed out tonight that TECHNICALLY Russia was never appointed to the Security Council. The USSR was and then Russia wasn't kicked off the council after USSR became Russia. But by legal technicalities, Russia could be theoretically removed because it never went through the proper process or received approval of the UN to be on the council.

If you can do that then by the same logic ROC was the founding member of the Security Council so I think ROC should get back the China seat that it lost in 1971.  BTW, the current UN Security Council seat PRC has is still called "the ROC seat" since ROC was a founding member of UN and Security Council.

[Helsinkian]

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

Somebody else pointed out tonight that TECHNICALLY Russia was never appointed to the Security Council. The USSR was and then Russia wasn't kicked off the council after USSR became Russia. But by legal technicalities, Russia could be theoretically removed because it never went through the proper process or received approval of the UN to be on the council.

If you can do that then by the same logic ROC was the founding member of the Security Council so I think ROC should get back the China seat that it lost in 1971.  BTW, the current UN Security Council seat PRC has is still called "the ROC seat" since ROC was a founding member of UN and Security Council.

The thing is, Putin himself has claimed that Russia is no longer bound by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on the grounds that, in his view, Ukraine of 1994 was a different country compared to Ukraine of today. Well, the Soviet Union of 1945 most certainly was a different country compared to Russia of today. (Well, there are some similarities...)

[KaiserDave]

It looks like Ukraine is fighting back

[Velasco]

Regime change in Moscow must now be the end goal. This requires stepping up cyber and information warfare efforts significantly, including the requisition of the services of all major social media companies. Clandestine funding of opposition groups in Russia with siginificant sums has become imperarative. Everything Russia has accused the West of in the past must now be done for real, and multiplied times ten.

Ah, and is there any way to suspend a country from the UN security council? I guess China could veto it, but that doesn't hinder all other countries to boycott Russia's attendence and meet in their absence.

So how are you going to get funds to ‘opposition groups’ if you also support draconian sanctions to cut the Russian economy off from the West? How will you prevent the Kremlin from impounding these funds? Most importantly, what ‘regime’ do you want to bring in in Moscow? Who will it be comprised of? Will the army be on board? The security services? How will you make it legitimate to those Russians who aren’t emigrés or living in the Petersburg/Moscow bubble?

I think this escalation by Putin may well be an overreach that brings harm to the Russian people as well as those of the Ukraine. Nonetheless, talk of the West attempting ‘regime’ change in Russia  is foolish and irresponsible, especially if it percolates up to people holding actual positions on power in western countries.

It's not foolish and irresponsible. It's what's necessary.

A regime change in Russia would be fantastic, providing the new regime is more democratic than the precedent. Sadly, and regardless of whether you deem it a neccessary or a foolish and irresponsible development, such a thing sounds utterly unrealistic

Anyway the future repercussions of these tragic events are completely unpredictable

[Skye]

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Stay safe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Fyodor Smolov, striker for Dynamo Moscow and member of the Russian national football team, has posted a black picture on Instagram with the comment "No to war" and an Ukrainian flag.


https://www.instagram.com/p/CaWrE-nMcyz/


Welcome to the resistance!

[MATTROSE94]

If you support Russia's attack, I do not want to hear from you. Silence.

Is there a single person here who does support it though? Didn't get that impression tbh

Maybe Vaccinated Russian Bear?

[Hnv1]

There are so little good factual reports on what's happening on the ground. It seems the Ukrainian are putting up a decent fight in the East but it's far from obvious what's happening in Kherson, Mariupol, Khrakov and the rest of the big cities

[Middle-aged Europe]

UEFA has decided to move the 2022 Champions Leage Final on May 28 away from the initially planned site of St. Petersburg.


https://www.spiegel.de/sport/fussball/uefa-entzieht-sankt-petersburg-das-champions-league-finale-a-faaa8281-b069-4e84-943b-51720cc161c2

(German source)

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/JoostBroekers/status/1496837546747502604

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

India is being cautiously quiet about these recent events.  I’d imagine they’re trying to walk that thin balance between being major trading partners with both Russia and Ukraine. 

An official denouncement would be nice, but I’m not holding my breath.

I must say that the situation is terrible. But so far I'm fine. At the moment, I am taking my family out of my city to the village where I have a house. Details will be announced later, if possible

Saying a prayer for you at my puja this morning, Andriy.  Please keep us posted, but do be sure that you and your family are safe first and foremost. 

[KaiserDave]

Question
1. Can we now say the amphibious assault on Odessa was Russian disinformation?
2. Was there a even a VDV attack on Kyiv, if so, was it in fact repelled?

[Person Man]

Question
1. Can we now say the amphibious assault on Odessa was Russian disinformation?
2. Was there a even a VDV attack on Kyiv, if so, was it in fact repelled?

Those Russian Twitterbutts are really good, aren't they? Eventually people catch on, though.