Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

Won’t Sactions just cripple the lives of everyday Russians instead of actually ending the war?

They support Putin for two main reasons:

1. MRGA (Make Russia Great Again)

2. Raise their living standards

This is where sanctions can really bite, and why Putin made certain to get the economic support of China to at least mitigate their impact.  He knows those sanctions that the West have in mind could potentially endanger his regime's survival.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To wish for total annihilation of either side of this conflict in this conflict is barbaric. This ought to be short, as bloodless as possible, and with as minimal a toll as is feasible on human life.
Keep a level head, people. Jesus Christ.

[Aurelius]

I would sincerely like to know how the US intel got this so right and got Afghanistan so wrong... Is it different people? Did Biden clean house or something?

^^^
Big part of why I was so skeptical of the CIA reports here. Something big maybe changed internally?

[pppolitics]

Serious question:

Do the majority of the Russian speaking Ukranians actually like Putin?

[nicholas.slaydon]

May every Russian  Soldier who enters the Ukraine catch a bullet through the eye socket.  Every. God. Damned. One.

There, I said it.

nothing wrong with saying that

If you really want to wish death on someone, perhaps do it upon the leader who sent the young Russian soldiers into Ukraine, not on the young soldiers themselves who are not really the ones responsible for all this, remember that they are pawns in a larger machine.

However it is those pawns as a part of a larger machine that are making this war go on. Without the consent of the soldiers, this war would not be able to go on. The decisions of Vladimir Putin are evil, and so therefore those that uphold those orders and carry them out are likewise just as evil.

[TheReckoning]

Won’t Sactions just cripple the lives of everyday Russians instead of actually ending the war?

Hopefully it hurts their lives enough that they stop supporting Putin.

Russia isn’t a democracy. Short of violent revolution, 99% of Russia could despise Putin and it wouldn’t make a real difference.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496730367881269257?s=20&t=DyOwc1hZ7lk6ub...

Rest in peace.

Not seeing it on the Wall Street Journal (and I have a paid subscription).

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news

Unless it's on the podcast gig or hasn't been updated yet....

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1496734008905981961

[2952-0-0]

Russia isn’t a democracy. Short of violent revolution, 99% of Russia could despise Putin and it wouldn’t make a real difference.

But what if the oligarchs are angered that their wealth has been confiscated, and the generals are angered that the Ukraine war has become an unending insurgency? If I had to guess, this will be the long-term end game.

[T'Chenka]

Serious question:

Do the majority of the Russian speaking Ukranians actually like Putin?

According to Jack Crosbie, a journalist who's been on the ground in Ukraine for some time, the language a person speaks and their loyalties for/against Russia are not particularly correlated in (eastern) Ukraine.

SOURCE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvGsX-ocG90

[TheReckoning]

Russia isn’t a democracy. Short of violent revolution, 99% of Russia could despise Putin and it wouldn’t make a real difference.

But what if the oligarchs are angered that their wealth has been confiscated, and the generals are angered that the Ukraine war has become an unending insurgency? If I had to guess, this will be the long-term end game.

Indeed. But that’s not done with run-of-the-mill sanctions.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

May every Russian  Soldier who enters the Ukraine catch a bullet through the eye socket.  Every. God. Damned. One.

There, I said it.

nothing wrong with saying that

If you really want to wish death on someone, perhaps do it upon the leader who sent the young Russian soldiers into Ukraine, not on the young soldiers themselves who are not really the ones responsible for all this, remember that they are pawns in a larger machine.

However it is those pawns as a part of a larger machine that are making this war go on. Without the consent of the soldiers, this war would not be able to go on. The decisions of Vladimir Putin are evil, and so therefore those that uphold those orders and carry them out are likewise just as evil.

Until enough time has passed that most low-level Russian grunts have voluntarily joined up after this particular spate of overt post-imperialist aggression started, spare us the "Universal Soldier" victim-blaming.

[TWTown]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1496730367881269257?s=20&t=DyOwc1hZ7lk6ub...

Rest in peace.

Not seeing it on the Wall Street Journal (and I have a paid subscription).

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news

Unless it's on the podcast gig or hasn't been updated yet....

I trust BNO but just to be sure, I checked for a second source.
https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1496707939704483847?s=20&t=DBzEzmi...

[NOVA Green]

I would sincerely like to know how the US intel got this so right and got Afghanistan so wrong... Is it different people? Did Biden clean house or something?

^^^
Big part of why I was so skeptical of the CIA reports here. Something big maybe changed internally?

No... decades of US failures in Afghanistan (including Intel failures) have 0% correlation with Ukraine.

One could also make a strong argument about how various intelligence agencies reports about Iraqi military capabilities were manipulated so that "The Vulcans" could have their war and remodel the Post Cold War Middle East order....

I digress...

0% correlation with Ukraine is the correct answer for a $500 square on the board.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

However it is those pawns as a part of a larger machine that are making this war go on. Without the consent of the soldiers, this war would not be able to go on. The decisions of Vladimir Putin are evil, and so therefore those that uphold those orders and carry them out are likewise just as evil.

US soldiers (and soldiers of other countries, for posters from other countries) would do the same if given similar orders. If you would not, honestly, say the same thing in that case, then you are not being objective.

There is nothing special about Russian soldiers. You could say that what they are doing is morally or ethically wrong, but such is the nature of war.

Note however that I am not speaking about any soldiers that may commit war crimes, that is obviously another matter.

[Ferguson97]

Won’t Sactions just cripple the lives of everyday Russians instead of actually ending the war?

Hopefully it hurts their lives enough that they stop supporting Putin.

Russia isn’t a democracy. Short of violent revolution, 99% of Russia could despise Putin and it wouldn’t make a real difference.

There's a limit even in countries like Russia. At that level there would be a military coup and the oligarchs wouldn't back him.

He'd commit suicide with two shots in the back.

[Storr]

Won’t Sactions just cripple the lives of everyday Russians instead of actually ending the war?

Hopefully it hurts their lives enough that they stop supporting Putin.

Russia isn’t a democracy. Short of violent revolution, 99% of Russia could despise Putin and it wouldn’t make a real difference.

There's a limit even in countries like Russia. At that level there would be a military coup and the oligarchs wouldn't back him.

He'd commit suicide with two shots in the back.

Exactly, even in the Soviet Union a military coup was stopped by the public's will.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1496731416272457732

These are not accurate rockets, but they cause a lot of damage over a wide area.

[NOVA Green]

NYT: 5 Mins back live feed

Video verified by The Times shows smoke rising from Kherson International Airport on Thursday morning. The airport is situated in the south of Ukraine, in a region bordering Crimea where a build up of Russian forces was observed in recent weeks.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1496733164412313603

[2952-0-0]

Russia isn’t a democracy. Short of violent revolution, 99% of Russia could despise Putin and it wouldn’t make a real difference.

But what if the oligarchs are angered that their wealth has been confiscated, and the generals are angered that the Ukraine war has become an unending insurgency? If I had to guess, this will be the long-term end game.

Indeed. But that’s not done with run-of-the-mill sanctions.

Just now, South Korea has pledged it will join the sanctions on Russia if it had "no other choice", but didn't elaborate on what that meant.

https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1496731667045629953

The four rich western allies in East Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) have all pledged to restrict the export of semiconductors and other high-tech products to Russia in co-ordination with the US. These alone will cause serious damage to Russia's economy and even military-industrial complex, assuming this war grinds on. China has NOT been able to replace imported semiconductors for even its own needs despite its best efforts, so will not be able to help Russia in this regard.

[NOVA Green]

Washington Post:

In speech, Putin warns opponents of grave consequences
Return to menu
By Paul Sonne1:00 a.m.

Putin said Russia didn’t plan to occupy Ukrainian territory but made references to the right to self-determination by local peoples, suggesting that Moscow could be planning to organize referendums in areas of Ukraine after the military campaign.

The Russian leader made mention of the referendum that Russia held in Crimea in 2014, subsequently annexing the piece of Ukrainian territory located on the Black Sea.

Putin also directly addressed members of the Ukrainian armed forces, calling on them to lay down their arms and refuse to take orders from their superiors in Kyiv.

He also warned anyone considering interfering with Russia’s plans of grave consequences, appearing to threaten the use of nuclear weapons.

“Whoever tries to interfere with our actions should know that the Russian response will be immediate and will lead to the kind of consequences you have never experienced in your entire history,” Putin said. “We are ready for any scenario of events.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/23/russia-ukraine-updates/

[NOVA Green]

NYT:

Ukraine’s interior ministry says that the villages of Horodyshche and Milove in the Luhansk region were captured by Russian forces.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/24/world/russia-ukraine-putin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will Ukraine be able to use its supply of Turkish drones well?

[NOVA Green]

Will Ukraine be able to use its supply of Turkish drones well?

Likely depends upon where they are located...

If reports are correct and Russia has basically taken out all Ukranian Military Airports then where would the Command and Control centers be operating out of?

The Turkish drones are generally from my understanding more of anti-tank, APC, etc type hardware, so yeah if they are still operable might be able to slow down a potential Russian armored convoy from Belarus towards the Capital, but at the same time even if there are operational capabilities in various areas they would be a bit split between what is now an extremely large front against a much larger and developed military machine.