Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I second changing the thread title. I've edited this post's subject line to my suggestion, which corresponds with Wikipedia's terminology.

[nicholas.slaydon]

The most tragic part of all of this is that the west could have easily prevented this and chose not to. If there's any justice in history Biden will be remembered in the same breath as Chamberlain. We are hoping hard for the best.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/holmescnn/status/1496712564335599626

[Omega21]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

[Damocles]

The most tragic part of all of this is that the west could have easily prevented this and chose not to. If there's any justice in history Biden will be remembered in the same breath as Chamberlain. We are hoping hard for the best.

These situations are not at all comparable. There’s no analogue to the Munich Agreement, for one.

[TWTown]

I'm very skeptic on Moldova since it's not exactly a pro-NATO state. I'll wait for actual confirmation on that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/cristivlas/status/1496710102195314691

Hopefully this means Moldova is not in fact under attack!!!

That is just the Russian puppet state along the Ukraine border, so it doesn't sound like Moldova isn't losing any more territory since 1991. However, if Russia was going to invade 2 more former Soviet republics, it would be them and Georgia.

[Storr]

I'm very skeptic on Moldova since it's not exactly a pro-NATO state. I'll wait for actual confirmation on that.

Yeah, evidently it was a "misunderstanding".
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496712661395988485?s=20&t=tfO7oA3m0...

[The Free North]

Just hopped on snapchat (i know) and took a look at the map and as of 20 mins ago the seaside in Odesa looks calm and there are no troops/landings there. Take it FWIW.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The most tragic part of all of this is that the west could have easily prevented this and chose not to. If there's any justice in history Biden will be remembered in the same breath as Chamberlain. We are hoping hard for the best.

These situations are not at all comparable. There’s no analogue to the Munich Agreement, for one.

Active, violent territorial aggrandizement by a nuclear power is genuinely unusual for the postwar world. The Soviet Union's own borders after 1945 remained stable; they just intervened on behalf of allies and puppet governments. If a year ago you had told me that an acknowledged nuclear weapons state was going to do something like this, I would have guessed India or Pakistan.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

My understanding is that Russia in first place bombs Command and control infrastructure and military storage facilities...

[YE]

I second changing the thread title. I've edited this post's subject line to my suggestion, which corresponds with Wikipedia's terminology.

Done.

[TWTown]

I'm very skeptic on Moldova since it's not exactly a pro-NATO state. I'll wait for actual confirmation on that.

Yeah, evidently it was a "misunderstanding".
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496712661395988485?s=20&t=tfO7oA3m0...

Transninstria makes a lot more sense. There is a Russian presence there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operational_Group_of_Russian_Forces

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If they win, it will probably be as a result of a long term insurgency. However, the Ukrainian Army can do damage now in particular in any urban fighting. They will probably have a harder time if they try to fight out in the open, due to the Russian firepower/artillery/air/drone advantage.

[Storr]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

My understanding is that Russia in first place bombs Command and control infrastructure and military storage facilities...

You'd hope Ukraine would have bomb proof command centers (from the Soviet era, maybe?).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Just hopped on snapchat (i know) and took a look at the map and as of 20 mins ago the seaside in Odessa looks calm and there are no troops/landings there. Take it FWIW.

My understanding: only bombings so far, perhaps, with exception of Donbass/Luhansk border.

[pppolitics]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

It depends.

The Russians could decided that things have become so costly it is not worth it.

If the Russians are 100% commited though, not a chance.

[Omega21]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

If Russia fully commits, 0.1%. They can make it a costly victory tho, if their chain of command or supply lines don't get cut.

My understanding is that Russia in first place bombs Command and control infrastructure and military storage facilities...

Yeah, if those get sufficiently damaged and the leadership is cut off, it's going to be a total & swift capitulation.

Still low info though, so we'll see within a few hours what all the bombardment did on the ground.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The most tragic part of all of this is that the west could have easily prevented this and chose not to. If there's any justice in history Biden will be remembered in the same breath as Chamberlain. We are hoping hard for the best.

I mean, that is possible, but to say it could have been done "easily" is a strong claim which requires strong evidence going beyond speculation. And it is not as though alternative courses of possible action may not have had some vary obvious potential downsides and costs. It is not something that can be described as simple or easy, even if you want to argue that Biden's policy is wrong (which is a fair argument to make if you want).

[Hindsight was 2020]

US intel has reported that no ground troops have moved into Ukraine yet and is all bombings so any reports of cities falling is disinformation

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496636644455297026

This is why I incorrectly predicted that Putin was bluffing to extract concessions. He is showing a new and worrisome level of aggression that goes far beyond even his old playbook.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1496716481652043776

[pppolitics]

I wonder if the Ukranians are willing to do gurilla warfare to defend their homeland.

[Damocles]

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1496716481652043776

Based.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1496713694931300354