Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

It's kind of shocking how effective they are in these areas. Probably the best "value for money" armed, cyber & intelligence forces on the planet.

Goes to show the West shouldn't keep underestimating them as a capable regional/world Power just because their economy is 2nd class at best.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CNN says Russia is closing airspace near Ukraine until MAY 18

https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1496648430575398914

You don't do that just for shi8s and giggles

[It’s so Joever]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

It's kind of shocking how effective they are in these areas. Probably the best "value for money" armed, cyber & intelligence forces on the planet.

Goes to show the West shouldn't keep underestimating them as a capable regional/world Power just because their economy is 2nd class at best.

When it’s so cold outside, nothing better to do than a cyberattack from the warmth of the home.

[Omega21]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

It's kind of shocking how effective they are in these areas. Probably the best "value for money" armed, cyber & intelligence forces on the planet.

Goes to show the West shouldn't keep underestimating them as a capable regional/world Power just because their economy is 2nd class at best.

When it’s so cold outside, nothing better to do than a cyberattack from the warmth of the home.

You can say a lot of things about Russians in general, but being scared of the cold ain't one of them lol.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN says Russia is closing airspace near Ukraine until MAY 18

https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1496648430575398914
You don't do that just for shi8s and giggles

What is their source? Nothing about that in Russian media.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wouldn't most (or at least a significant amount) Ukrainians choose death over Russian rule?
Urban warfare means high Russian casualties. Ukraine doesn't need to "win", they just need to up the body count to where enough Russian moms/wives get sick of seeing their boys come home in caskets.

They will probably, at least at first, try to surround cities and simply cut off all water/electricity/food supply and starve them out, rather than assaulting the cities. The question is, is that enough to get the Ukranians to actually surrender? If so, a lot of the high casualties of urban combat might hypothetically be avoided.

Read the subtext in the article you linked. There isn't the same fervor when they took Crimea in 2014. Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

I agree that many people in Russia will not be happy about this, but the question is how much does that mater in a dictatorship that is willing to suppress dissent. To be sure, that willingness to suppress dissent will probably be tested at some point, to some degree though.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Also suppose Russia conducts a full-fledged invasion. What's their plan a month from now when tens of thousands are dead, there's no end in sight to a Ukrainian insurgency, inflation increases as it always does with war, and there's thousands of people protesting outside the Kremlin?

1) They will use lots of artillery and bombs against any insurgency. If there is resistance in a city, they will bombard it until resistance stops. It won't be like American counter-insurgency efforts where they give fairly high priority to avoiding civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496614730064183298
2) There won't be people protesting outside the Kremlin because anyone who tries will get immediately arrested before they can even start.



Moscow police arrest lone anti-war protesters within minutes as Russia's propaganda machine ramps up

Muted protests in stark contrast to the Russian public response when the Kremlin annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014

Russian police have arrested several people who dared to publicly protest Moscow’s military escalation in Ukraine, bundling demonstrators in vans for holding up signs reading “No to War”.

While there is little or no public enthusiasm in Russia for active conflict with its neighbour, protests against a potential war have been muted after years of Kremlin crackdown on dissent. 

Wouldn't most (or at least a significant amount) Ukrainians choose death over Russian rule?
Urban warfare means high Russian casualties. Ukraine doesn't need to "win", they just need to up the body count to where enough Russian moms/wives get sick of seeing their boys come home in caskets.

 Read the subtext in the article you linked. There isn't the same fervor when they took Crimea in 2014. Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

That's why I always believed, Putin wouldn't attack. It will likely be his end. But today's news are scary.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CNN says Russia is closing airspace near Ukraine until MAY 18

https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1496648430575398914
You don't do that just for shi8s and giggles

What is their source? Nothing about that in Russian media.

It is Erin Burnett, a prime-time anchor on CNN. If they are reporting it, they have sources for it.

Russian media is not necessarily going to report everything, for the obvious reason that the Russian government/military is going to want to maintain operational secrecy as much as they can, and also that Russian media presumably doesn't want Russia to look like the aggressor any more than has to be the case.

[jojoju1998]

Also suppose Russia conducts a full-fledged invasion. What's their plan a month from now when tens of thousands are dead, there's no end in sight to a Ukrainian insurgency, inflation increases as it always does with war, and there's thousands of people protesting outside the Kremlin?

1) They will use lots of artillery and bombs against any insurgency. If there is resistance in a city, they will bombard it until resistance stops. It won't be like American counter-insurgency efforts where they give fairly high priority to avoiding civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496614730064183298
2) There won't be people protesting outside the Kremlin because anyone who tries will get immediately arrested before they can even start.



Moscow police arrest lone anti-war protesters within minutes as Russia's propaganda machine ramps up

Muted protests in stark contrast to the Russian public response when the Kremlin annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014

Russian police have arrested several people who dared to publicly protest Moscow’s military escalation in Ukraine, bundling demonstrators in vans for holding up signs reading “No to War”.

While there is little or no public enthusiasm in Russia for active conflict with its neighbour, protests against a potential war have been muted after years of Kremlin crackdown on dissent. 

Wouldn't most (or at least a significant amount) Ukrainians choose death over Russian rule?
Urban warfare means high Russian casualties. Ukraine doesn't need to "win", they just need to up the body count to where enough Russian moms/wives get sick of seeing their boys come home in caskets.

 Read the subtext in the article you linked. There isn't the same fervor when they took Crimea in 2014. Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

That's why I always believed, Putin wouldn't attack. It will likely be his end. But today's news are scary.

If Putin was that sane, he would focus on getting the Russian economy back to health.

[Omega21]

That's why I always believed, Putin wouldn't attack. It will likely be his end. But today's news are scary.

Yeah, this makes literally 0 sense.

I thought he would maybe just incorporate the already occupied territory, bring back home a "win" to rally some support while only suffering minimal-moderate consequences in form of sanctions.

If he really does go all in, I don't see it ending well for him long-term, unless he only goes for the full Donetsk and Luhansk, and casualties are light.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Abnormally heavy traffic for 3 AM on the obvious invasion route (main road from Belgorod to Kharkiv):

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1496650993978724357

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1496640116374347783

If true, this meeting would be after the reported possible 04:00 invasion start time The Impartial Spectator shared from twitter, since 21:30 EST is 05:30 Moscow Time.  

Edit: I just realized 04:00 MSK was 15 minutes ago. So if it was zero hour, I guess we'll be hearing about it soon.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abnormally heavy traffic for 3 AM on the obvious invasion route (main road from Belgorod to Kharkiv):

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1496650993978724357

disposition.

This seems, uh, dispositive.

[Helsinkian]

  Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

They will try -- they will incinerate their own KIA soldiers on the battlefield to make sure there's no photos of caskets coming back to Russia:

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009

[It’s so Joever]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN says Russia is closing airspace near Ukraine until MAY 18

https://twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1496648430575398914
You don't do that just for shi8s and giggles

What is their source? Nothing about that in Russian media.

It is Erin Burnett, a prime-time anchor on CNN. If they are reporting it, they have sources for it.

Russian media is not necessarily going to report everything, for the obvious reason that the Russian government/military is going to want to maintain operational secrecy as much as they can, and also that Russian media presumably doesn't want Russia to look like the aggressor any more than has to be the case.

Either CNN has intel from CIA etc... or CNN misunderstood. I remember when NBC spooked market by going with Facebook auto-translate of Ze's speech... That's why I wondered about the source.

[jaichind]

If Putin was that sane, he would focus on getting the Russian economy back to health.

BTW, so far this crisis is an economic bonanza for Russia.  The surge in energy prices and the weakening of the RUB have been a massive boost for Russian finances.  Even if Russia does a full-scale invasion and takes some losses they will most likely make a financial profit on this entire affair.  Clearly, in the long run, you cannot devalue your way to prosperity and this economic bonanza will translate into higher inflation just like Spain discovered when it got all that gold and silver from the New World.  But in the short run as long as Russia has access to sell its energy this entire crisis is working out great for Russian finances and economy.

[YPestis25]

If Putin was that sane, he would focus on getting the Russian economy back to health.

BTW, so far this crisis is an economic bonanza for Russia.  The surge in energy prices and the weakening of the RUB have been a massive boost for Russian finances.  Even if Russia does a full-scale invasion and takes some losses they will most likely make a financial profit on this entire affair.  Clearly, in the long run, you cannot devalue your way to prosperity and this economic bonanza will translate into higher inflation just like Spain discovered when it got all that gold and silver from the New World.  But in the short run as long as Russia has access to sell its energy this entire crisis is working out great for Russian finances and economy.

This seems a bad take. Modern war is just not profitable pretty much ever.

[Omega21]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

 Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.

They will try -- they will incinerate their own KIA soldiers on the battlefield to make sure there's no photos of caskets coming back to Russia:

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1496585861110059009

LMAO, please stop it, we have internet, you know. There is like hundred of thousands of videos on tictoc that shows how different military reaching Ukraine's border.


https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin

This guy posts just tiny share of videos.

[nicholas.slaydon]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

[Omega21]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

[Helsinkian]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

And if Putin were to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, would there not be people trying to worm out of NATO's Article 5 commitments using that same argument?

[Omega21]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

And if Putin were to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, would there not be people trying to worm out of NATO's Article 5 commitments using that same argument?

As said in my above post, if Putin takes Ukraine, NATO/the West should flood Eastern Europe/the Baltics with troops, thereby fully eliminating that possibility and any further advance.

[jojoju1998]

We need to fight this. It won’t stop with Ukraine.

If you're ready to put on a helmet and take up an AK, go right ahead, but no sane Western power would risk sending boots on the ground to start WW3.

If he does go in, western troops will probably roll up en masse to the Baltics / Eastern Europe anyway, preventing further land grabs.

Isn't it the insane thing to do on the part of western nations to not intervene? Wouldn't the same thing be to defend the Ukrainians and their territorial sovereignty just as we claim? If we won't defend Ukrainian sovereignty like we say we support, then what is the word of a western nation worth?

I know what it isn't worth:

A WW3 with a country holding the #1 nuclear stockpile.

And if Putin were to invade Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, would there not be people trying to worm out of NATO's Article 5 commitments using that same argument?

Well then we're screwed in that case.

And what's not say other countries like Iran, China, North Korea, will take advantage and start to do crazy stuff on their own ?