Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Helsinkian]

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

Already three years earlier Putin had killed over 300 Russians by blowing up their apartment buildings to create an excuse to kill thousands of Chechens.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Reminder: in 2002 Putin said regarding Ukraine's Nato membership that "the decision is to be taken by NATO & Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners".

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495423040909365249
https://twitter.com/ValoisDuBins/status/1495583736670613507

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

'The US made a horrific foreign policy decision 20 years ago' isn't a casus belli or a moral justification for starting your own war.

I didn't say any of that. I'm against war. But US gave Putin plausibility/talking points by setting a precedent.

[The Free North]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

The reason Putin did what he did in 2014/2015 with Donetsk and Luhansk was that he wanted Donetsk and Luhansk to influence Ukrainian foreign policy - in particular, to have an effective veto over Ukraine further integrating with the west, via a federal structure stemming from the Minsk agreeement. And since Donetsk and Luhansk are Russian puppet states, that would have meant that Putin in effect could veto that.

However, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to allow its policies to be vetoed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk/Luhansk "People's Republics." And the problem for Putin was also that Crimea and large parts of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts were out of Ukrainian control, meaning that those areas (the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine) no longer were sending representatives to the Ukrainian parliament etc and were no longer influencing Ukrainian policy. So the absence of Crimea especially made the part of Ukraine that was left more pro-western overall.

It would be as though you had Russia come in and annex Texas. That would make America more pro-democrats overall and shift the country to the left.

So this was not working for Putin, and in fact in some ways was making things worse for Russian influence over Ukranian policy. So the only way he can now reassert Russian influence over Ukranian policy is by some sort of regime change, which requires an invasion and war.

Interesting points, thank you.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

Already three years earlier Putin had killed over 300 Russians by blowing up their apartment buildings to create an excuse to kill thousands of Chechens.

Sure. As likely as 9/11 being false flag, too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

The reason Putin did what he did in 2014/2015 with Donetsk and Luhansk was that he wanted Donetsk and Luhansk to influence Ukrainian foreign policy - in particular, to have an effective veto over Ukraine further integrating with the west, via a federal structure stemming from the Minsk agreeement. And since Donetsk and Luhansk are Russian puppet states, that would have meant that Putin in effect could veto that.

However, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to allow its policies to be vetoed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk/Luhansk "People's Republics." And the problem for Putin was also that Crimea and large parts of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts were out of Ukrainian control, meaning that those areas (the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine) no longer were sending representatives to the Ukrainian parliament etc and were no longer influencing Ukrainian policy. So the absence of Crimea especially made the part of Ukraine that was left more pro-western overall.

It would be as though you had Russia come in and annex Texas. That would make America more pro-democrats overall and shift the country to the left.

So this was not working for Putin, and in fact in some ways was making things worse for Russian influence over Ukranian policy. So the only way he can now reassert Russian influence over Ukranian policy is by some sort of regime change, which requires an invasion and war.

Interesting points, thank you.

I would like to redouble this sentiment.
Only thing I'd add at the moment is that in 2010, iirc around 90% of pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukvych's winning margin came from Crimea.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

The reason Putin did what he did in 2014/2015 with Donetsk and Luhansk was that he wanted Donetsk and Luhansk to influence Ukrainian foreign policy - in particular, to have an effective veto over Ukraine further integrating with the west, via a federal structure stemming from the Minsk agreeement. And since Donetsk and Luhansk are Russian puppet states, that would have meant that Putin in effect could veto that.

However, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to allow its policies to be vetoed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk/Luhansk "People's Republics." And the problem for Putin was also that Crimea and large parts of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts were out of Ukrainian control, meaning that those areas (the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine) no longer were sending representatives to the Ukrainian parliament etc and were no longer influencing Ukrainian policy. So the absence of Crimea especially made the part of Ukraine that was left more pro-western overall.

It would be as though you had Russia come in and annex Texas. That would make America more pro-democrats overall and shift the country to the left.

So this was not working for Putin, and in fact in some ways was making things worse for Russian influence over Ukranian policy. So the only way he can now reassert Russian influence over Ukranian policy is by some sort of regime change, which requires an invasion and war.

Yeah. That's why denying Ukraine foreign policy by denying them NATO membership or forcing them to implement Minsk should be considered by Biden as the lesser evil.. It would be much better decision, than basically leaving them to Russia with clown sanctions...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1496619010842152960

He had a good speech just now. It might be a very sad day today...

Here is the translation of his speech:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496628727077380098

He addresses Russians in Russian.

"We are divided by a shared border of more than 2,000km. Almost 200,000 of your troops and thousands of military vehicles are standing alongside it. Your leadership has ordered them to move forward, onto another country's territory."

"This step could be the start of a big war on the European continent. The whole world is talking about what could happen any day now," says Zelensky. "Any provocation. Any flare-up – one that could burn everything."

"They're telling you that this flame will liberate the people of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian people are free. They remember their past and are building their future," Zelensky says. "Ukraine on your TV news and the real Ukraine are two totally different countries. Ours is real."

Zelensky talks about all the times he spent as an entertainer in the Donbas and how many friends he has with family from there.

"They told you I'm ordering an attack on Donbas, to open fire and bomb indiscriminately [...] to shoot at whom? to bomb whom?"

Zelensky remembers a lot of specific places in Donetsk and Luhansk oblast he's been. "I'm speaking Russian, but nobody in Russia understand what these places, streets, and events are. This is our land and our history. What are you fighting for? And with who?"

"Lots of you have relatives in Ukraine, you studied in Ukrainian universities, you have Ukrainian friends. You know our character, our principles, what matters to us. Listen to yourselves, to the voice of reason. The people of Ukraine want peace."

"The government of Ukraine wants peace. It's doing everything it can. We're not alone. That's true, lots of countries support Ukraine. Because this isn't about peace at any price. It's about peace, principles, justice, international law, the right to determine your own future."

"This is about society's right to be safe and people's rights to live without threats. This is all important for us and for the world. I know for sure that this is important for you too."

"We know for sure that we don't need war – neither cold, nor hot, nor hybrid. But if troops attack us and someone tries to take away our country, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, then we will defend ourselves."

"We will defend ourselves. When you attack, you will see our faces, not our backs. War is a great misfortune and it comes at a great price. People lose their money, reputation, freedom, living standards, and most importantly – they lose their loved ones nad themselves."

"Nothing's ever enough in a war, but there's more than enough pain, dirt, and death. Tens of thousands of deaths. They're telling you that Ukraine could be a threat for Russia. That never happened in the past, it's not not and won't in the future."

"You demand security guarantees from Nato. We demand guarantees of our security. The security of Ukraine. From you, Russia, and the other guarantors of the Budapest memorandum. We aren't in any defensive alliances. Ukraine's security is tied to our neighbors' security."

"Today we need to talk about the security of the whole of Europe. But our main goal is peace in Ukraine and the security of our citizens, Ukrainians. We will tell everyone, including you, in different formats, in any venue."

"War will take guarantees away from everyone. Nobody will have security guarantees anymore. Who will suffer most of all? People. Who doesn't want that to happen more than anyone? People. Who can stop that? People."

"These people are among you. I'm sure. Activists, journalists, musicians, actors, athletes, scientists, doctors, bloggers, stand-up comedians, TikTokers, and many others. Ordinary people, simple people, men, women, the old, the young, fathers, and most of all - mothers."

"Just like the people in Ukraine. Just like the government in Ukraine. However they try to convince you otherwise. I know that Russian TV won't show my speech. But citizens of Russia need to see it. They need to see the truth. The truth is you need to stop before it's too late."

"And if the leadership of Russia doesn't want, for the sake of peace, to sit at the table with us, maybe it'll sit at the table with you. Do the Russians want war? I'd love to answer that question. But the answer only depends on you – citizens of Russia."

The first two minutes of that speech were in Ukrainian. Zelensky updated the nation on the state of emergency and his contacts with Ukraine's western allies. "I thank everyone who supports Ukraine. We keep on working, he ended."

But the next nine minutes, in which Zelensky addressed Russians directly, were absolutely astonishing.

A powerful, dignified, mature, and heartfelt appeal for peace between Russians and Ukrainians that couldn't have been any more different from Putin's resentful rant.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1496634711992684548

Among them, Ukranian Council of Ministers website hacked, looks like this (do NOT go to any potenttially hacked websites yourself, they may have malware!):

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496636644455297026

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1496640116374347783

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cyber attacks reported on the Baltic states (NATO members):

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1496636609927823360

[emailking]

They won't be able to do anything because of Russia's veto.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Not being chicken little but just curious what others think lol

[Person Man]

I wonder what would happen if Borat made an appearance.

[jojoju1998]

It could. I hope it doesn.t

[Aurelius]

Doubt it. I give that a ~5% chance.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496643487395196928

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496643487395196928

Blinken says invasion tonight.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not immediately, but I think the big concern (aside from concern for Ukraine itself) is the potential for it to trigger the world's first major cyber war. If Russia does cyber attacks against The US and the West in response to sanctions, and the US responds with retaliatory cyber attacks against Russia in response, and Russia responds back etc, then we are in a brave new world, and it is hard to say how that will work out, because we have never had a major cyber war, and there are no "laws of war" or norms established for cyber war, since it has never happened before.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496643487395196928

Blinken says invasion tonight.

That is very, very specific. Let's all hope to God that he is wrong.

Sadly, that's looking less likely by the minute.

[ilikeverin]

No, I don't think so. The West will just let Ukraine go under rather than risk a nuclear war. The question is which country falls next.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Welcome to Russian shock and awe tactics - now they are being used online.
Please stay safe everyone.

[jojoju1998]

Am i allowed to laugh at the Conservatives who said war was not going to happen and the Far Leftists who say that the US and NATO are being the agresssors here ?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The Blinken statement might have been a misinterpretation, he might not have meant to specify tonight. Hopefully he did not mean US has specific intelligence that it is definitely happening tonight.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496646684222361609

[sting in the rafters]

Also suppose Russia conducts a full-fledged invasion. What's their plan a month from now when tens of thousands are dead, there's no end in sight to a Ukrainian insurgency, inflation increases as it always does with war, and there's thousands of people protesting outside the Kremlin?

1) They will use lots of artillery and bombs against any insurgency. If there is resistance in a city, they will bombard it until resistance stops. It won't be like American counter-insurgency efforts where they give fairly high priority to avoiding civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496614730064183298
2) There won't be people protesting outside the Kremlin because anyone who tries will get immediately arrested before they can even start.



Moscow police arrest lone anti-war protesters within minutes as Russia's propaganda machine ramps up

Muted protests in stark contrast to the Russian public response when the Kremlin annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014

Russian police have arrested several people who dared to publicly protest Moscow’s military escalation in Ukraine, bundling demonstrators in vans for holding up signs reading “No to War”.

While there is little or no public enthusiasm in Russia for active conflict with its neighbour, protests against a potential war have been muted after years of Kremlin crackdown on dissent. 

Wouldn't most (or at least a significant amount) Ukrainians choose death over Russian rule?
Urban warfare means high Russian casualties. Ukraine doesn't need to "win", they just need to up the body count to where enough Russian moms/wives get sick of seeing their boys come home in caskets.

 Read the subtext in the article you linked. There isn't the same fervor when they took Crimea in 2014. Young people are already lukewarm on the administration, fighting for the fantasies of septuagenarian elites looking to relive the USSR glory days they weren't alive for can't help much on that front. The Kremlin can't disappear them all. Mark my words, a botched invasion is one of the very few things which can jeopardize Putin's grip on power.