Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Splash]

For what it's worth, I put relatively little stock into the short-and-medium term prognostications of the self-appointed foreign policy pundit class that have been so obviously wrong in predicting the end game of all of this. It is not clear at all that Putin simply stops at a quasi-occupation of the Donbass. Until/unless we start seeing the Russians re-consolidate some of their mechanized units, helicopters, and missile batteries that are presently hiding out in the forests and fields in the Belgorod Oblast and Belarus, I would be wary. That doesn't necessarily mean them returning to their permanent bases, but at least back to their forward operating 'bases' where some of them have been stationed for the better part of the past two months.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Having listened to Putin's speech, he is very clearly going to go beyond just the DNR and LNR. The three specific locations mentioned were Odessa (especially: there were violent clashes between pro- and anti-Russian demonstrators there in 2014 where ~30-40 pro-Russian demonstrators died, and the one specific promise made was "to bring the perpetrators to justice"), Poltava (where a monument to Alexander Suvorov was removed), and Ochakov (where Russian soldiers fought a decisive battle in 1788).

Hard to imagine this doesn't go at least to Odessa, which, uh, is not close to the Donbass.

Multiple references were made to the "Novorossiya" concept, which covers most of the southern/eastern half of contemporary Ukraine. Poltava is actually (barely) outside its borders as they were defined by the DNR and LNR in 2014, though.

Putin in the speech said that all of Ukraine is historically part of Russia, that the nation was created in 1917 by the Bolsheviks, and the current Ukrainian state is an illegitimate construct that has an American puppet government whose masters are dedicated to destroying Russia. They're also developing nuclear weapons to attack Russia with. The stuff about Donbas was tacked on at the end of the speech - which ended with "and if Ukraine continues to attack then they'll be responsible for all the bloodshed that follows." It was a forthright manifesto for annexation. If Putin believes even half the stuff he said in that speech and doesn't expand the war further then he's a NATO double agent.

[Zinneke]

And indeed the reaction of Russians from the Russians I know is not necessarily muted but certainly aknowledging that unlike Crimea this isn't devious , clever 4D chess Putin but genuinely unhinged, paranoid Putin...and that's scary for them too.

[WMS]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

[The Free North]

1) Putin's speech only provides more evidence that the once KGB agent now oversees a pseudo-fascist state.

2) The points about Lenin are *technically* not wrong, but if Russia wanted to grief Soviet era border malpractice, the time to do that was likely as the union was dissolving, not 30 years later when Ukraine has been a fully independent and fully sovereign state for far too long to make their actions look justifiable.

3) Regardless of if Ukraine was a Soviet invention or not, Russia in a political, economic, and religious sense was 'invented' by princes of the Kievan Rus' who conquered and settled the lands north of what is now the capital of Ukraine. So who really created who?

[WMS]

I imagine Syria, Nicaragua, and Venezuela will follow the Russians in short order on recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk.

I imagine so too! The interesting thing will be how many other governments will side with Russia either directly through said recognition or by other means. I expect vast, vast, hypocrisy and whataboutism in the days ahead!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I imagine Syria, Nicaragua, and Venezuela will follow the Russians in short order on recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk.

I imagine so too! The interesting thing will be how many other governments will side with Russia either directly through said recognition or by other means. I expect vast, vast, hypocrisy and whataboutism in the days ahead!

Syria and Venezuela already did. I don't know about the others, didn't hear about them so far. But the list of countries recognizing DNR/LNR will be both short and predictable.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/UN_Spokesperson/status/1495896419961556992


https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1495891540337696776

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1495919094608154625

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1495919095975448584

Putin moves in eastern Ukraine could be opening phase of possible large-scale invasion, multiple US and western officials say

(CNN) Russian President Vladimir Putin's move to recognize breakaway eastern Ukrainian territories as independent could be the opening phase of a larger potential military operation targeting Ukraine, nearly a dozen US and western officials told CNN.

"This is Potemkin politics," a senior administration official told reporters on Monday. "President Putin is accelerating the very conflict that he's created."

The US and western officials said Putin's decision to sign the decrees, which proclaim that the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) are independent territories, has given Putin the justification he wanted to send in Russian forces and potentially wage a broader assault on Ukraine in the name of protecting the separatist regions.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield called the announcement a pretext to an invasion. "Russia's announcement is nothing more than theater, apparently designed to create a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine," she said in a statement.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/gerrydogma/status/1495919546301141002

“CNN: The US is seeing preparations for a potential broad invasion of Ukraine, including loading amphibious ships and loading equipment for airborne units.“

[Not Me, Us]

https://twitter.com/UN_Spokesperson/status/1495896419961556992


https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1495891540337696776

Stop the presses everyone! The UN is concerned! It's over for Putin now that the might UN is on the case.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Switzerland is non-neutral


https://twitter.com/SwissMFA/status/1495882827208052742

[compucomp]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

[Storr]

Switzerland is non-neutral


https://twitter.com/SwissMFA/status/1495882827208052742

Switzerland voted in favor of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 which affirmed the UN's commitment to Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders" in 2014. It's still good for a famously neutral nation with a strong reputation internationally to publicly support Ukraine at this critical moment.

All of Europe (including Turkey and the Caucuses) voted for the resolution except for five. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia were absent (I guess their representatives were out for lunch, heh). The three others were Russia, Belarus, and Armenia which unsurprisingly voted against the resolution.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

America is hardly the white knight it claims itself to be, and NATO moving east is a real threat to Russia (right at a time when geographic armor makes for less than it used to be, and the only geographic armor Russia has is flat land on the North European Plain).
I've said it before but I'll say it again: Russia is refreshingly honest about how the game is actually played.

[NOVA Green]

Switzerland is non-neutral


https://twitter.com/SwissMFA/status/1495882827208052742

Switzerland voted in favor of United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 which affirmed the UN's commitment to Ukraine's "internationally recognized borders" in 2014. It's still good for a famously neutral nation with a strong reputation internationally to publicly support Ukraine at this critical moment.

All of Europe (including Turkey and the Caucuses) voted for the resolution except for five. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia were absent (I guess their representatives were out for lunch, heh). The three others were Russia, Belarus, and Armenia which unsurprisingly voted against the resolution.

Will Switzerland force financial institutions to seize assets linked to Russian individuals targeted by a hypothetical sanctions list?

Can't recall where or when I read about how senior Putin linked assets were considered to be targeted, but yet no financial assets were placed "on hold".

[nicholas.slaydon]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

America is hardly the white knight it claims itself to be, and NATO moving east is a real threat to Russia (right at a time when geographic armor makes for less than it used to be, and the only geographic armor Russia has is flat land on the North European Plain).
I've said it before but I'll say it again: Russia is refreshingly honest about how the game is actually played.

What threat is NATO to Russia? Does anyone realistically think that anyone in the NATO alliance would ever dream of an offensive attack against Russia? NATO is very clearly a defensive alliance, and Russia's actions in Georgia and Ukraine only continue to prove why the alliance is valid and necessary.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

America is hardly the white knight it claims itself to be, and NATO moving east is a real threat to Russia (right at a time when geographic armor makes for less than it used to be, and the only geographic armor Russia has is flat land on the North European Plain).
I've said it before but I'll say it again: Russia is refreshingly honest about how the game is actually played.

I don't see any necessary contradiction between recognizing that America is not some white knight that can never do any wrong and recognizing that Putin's actions at the moment are not justified. No necessary contradiction between condemning Putins actions and e.g. this analysis - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

America is hardly the white knight it claims itself to be, and NATO moving east is a real threat to Russia (right at a time when geographic armor makes for less than it used to be, and the only geographic armor Russia has is flat land on the North European Plain).
I've said it before but I'll say it again: Russia is refreshingly honest about how the game is actually played.

What threat is NATO to Russia? Does anyone realistically think that anyone in the NATO alliance would ever dream of an offensive attack against Russia? NATO is very clearly a defensive alliance, and Russia's actions in Georgia and Ukraine only continue to prove why the alliance is valid and necessary.

Russia and America both engage in sphere of influence politics. Only Russia admits that publicly. Maintaining a larger sphere tends to make the country richer and more influential, and America's sphere has grown at the expense of Russia's.
NATO moving east is absolutely not a benign thing. It's a dagger held at the Russian heartland, and in fact we've disrespected Russia for decades now. Now Russia is running to China, and it's mainly our fault.

[jaichind]

This has been such an useful thread in identifying the wretched posters on this site.

For a forum that is quite politically aware that pores over every intricacy and facet of US domestic issues, it's quite strange to me that the vast majority accept American "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth and refuses to even consider the notion that American actions paint a quite different picture than what they say, and that they're just a side in the great power competition, like one side of a football match where both sides try to game the system and cheat the rules to win.

America is hardly the white knight it claims itself to be, and NATO moving east is a real threat to Russia (right at a time when geographic armor makes for less than it used to be, and the only geographic armor Russia has is flat land on the North European Plain).
I've said it before but I'll say it again: Russia is refreshingly honest about how the game is actually played.

What threat is NATO to Russia? Does anyone realistically think that anyone in the NATO alliance would ever dream of an offensive attack against Russia? NATO is very clearly a defensive alliance, and Russia's actions in Georgia and Ukraine only continue to prove why the alliance is valid and necessary.

Things like USA interceptor rockets systems in Poland.  Yes, I agree that the intention is defensive and for the security of NATO allies  but as  Kissinger pointed out: “The desire of one power for absolute security means the absolute insecurity for all the others." 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't see any necessary contradiction between recognizing that America is not some white knight that can never do any wrong and recognizing that Putin's actions at the moment are not justified. No necessary contradiction between condemning Putins actions and e.g. this analysis - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

And to further clarify, I think that similarly there is no contradiction between condemning Hitler's actions and also recognizing that the Versailles Treaty and problems with how the post-WW1 order was set up were major factors contributing to the rise of Hitler and consequently to WW2. Recognizing that the Versailles Treaty was bad does not imply that Hitler was good or that his "solution" to it was good.

I also don't mean to imply a lazy Putin = Hitler analogy in other respects (e.g. appeasementt/sudetenland analogies), just using that here to illustrate the point that one thing on one level of analysis does not necessarily imply anything at all about something else on another level of analysis.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AshleyRParker/status/1495925054298894341
Wow! True, but WOW!

I wonder, if Biden will backtrack it, though, after the criticism of MSM.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Russia and America both engage in sphere of influence politics. Only Russia admits that publicly. Maintaining a larger sphere tends to make the country richer and more influential, and America's sphere has grown at the expense of Russia's.
NATO moving east is absolutely not a benign thing. It's a dagger held at the Russian heartland, and in fact we've disrespected Russia for decades now. Now Russia is running to China, and it's mainly our fault.

A crucial question here is, could Russia ever be a member of NATO? Putin himself mentioned this in his speech today (in his own particular way).

Personally I would say the question is clearly no while Russia is an autocratic dictatorship under Putin. But could it never, if it hypothetically became a democratic country similar to e.g. Latvia?

It is true that Russia may perceive NATO as a dagger held at the Russian heartland, and we should be willing to acknowledge that perception. But at the same time, need it necessarily be?

On the one hand, we should not be surprised that some people in Russia would have the perception of threat, but at the same time we should also be willing to acknowledge that this can be a manifestation of their own attitudes and paranoia.

It can be a chicken-and-the-egg issue, which is how I would think about it at any rate.

[Third Party]

Atlas discussion on Russia/Ukraine is dominated by two groups of people:

1. Random neo-liberals/Neocons that savagely hate Russia, but lack any kind of recent or ancestral ties to that part of the world.

2. A few Western Ukrainian nationalists that savagely hate Russia.

As someone with ancestral ties to the Odessa region, I am not sad at all about Russia's recognition of the Donbass republics. This is a great day for the entire southeastern Ukraine and an important step forward. The entire southeastern Ukraine should form a new federation together with the Donbass.

As for the first group I mentioned, I really do not care at all what you guys think about anything.

For group two, the Western Ukrainian nationalists, you are going to have to learn to live without the Donbass and probably the entire southeast as well, eventually. The best thing that the Ukrainian military could do is get out of the Donbass fast, before this turns into a much larger war. Unlike the Neocons here, I do not want to see large numbers of Ukrainian soldiers get needlessly killed. That is all I have to say to you.

A lot of people here/in western press totally misjudge the unpopularity of Donbas war and today's "annexation". Crimea was extremely popular, both among Russians and Crimeans. Donbas never was.

Just to clarify, Russia is not "annexing" the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics -- they are not being invited to join the Russian Federation like the Crimea was. Russia is simply recognizing their independence. Just last week the State Duma overwhelmingly voted in favor of a resolution on recognizing the Donbass republics. A Russian peacekeeping force is also going to be deployed into the DPR/LPR to stop Kiev's endless shelling of the people that live there. The most logical thing for the two republics to do is form a new country together.

That is all I have to say to Atlas on this matter, for now.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1495927139522252808

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1495932442682839042

Here comes the "oh no, the wicked Ukranians are attacking our peacekeepers, who could have foreseen such aggression by the aggressive Ukranians attacking our peaceful Russian soldiers" part.

To be followed thereafter by the "oh no, now we are forced to invade the rest of Ukraine (in self-defense, of course) with our 200,000 troops that we just happened to have, by sheer random chance, gathering at the borders of Ukraine for months for peaceful military exercises" part.