Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[StateBoiler]

Markets down this morning on war fears but erased most of its losses when Russia’s Lavrov says Putin backs continuing talks with west

I can't think of a better signal that market buyers and sellers are reactionary idiots than that. One, the rampup to war has been going on since November. Two, that Lavrov's statement is taken by buyers as "oh, well that's truth then".

[StateBoiler]

Vague in first place and backtracked later, but diplomats usually don't improvise. Test balloon?

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1493116643572072451

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1493167291369984002

Appears like flinching to me, which tells me the Ukrainians are getting nervous this is actually going to happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well there is that, but its maybe also a signal that Russia isn't hell bent on war no matter what.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1493217886458028035
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1493218674802573315
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1493208779852296195

Valentine day! Love is in the air!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1493266743694868491

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1493243863858831365
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1493243867507924992
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1493243870896873480
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1493246019101937667

[AelroseB]

Zelensky suggesting he has received intelligence that Russia will invade.

Not quite the same as him saying, "Russia will invade on this date"...

https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1493296318080593921

And here is Zelensky saying this in his own words: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=257130379907084&extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing

[KaiserDave]

Zelensky suggesting he has received intelligence that Russia will invade.

Not quite the same as him saying, "Russia will invade on this date"...

https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1493296318080593921

And here is Zelensky saying this in his own words: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=257130379907084&extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing

This "Zelensky knows Putin won't attack" narrative needs to die

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Zelensky suggesting he has received intelligence that Russia will invade.

Not quite the same as him saying, "Russia will invade on this date"...

https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1493296318080593921
And here is Zelensky saying this in his own words: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=257130379907084&extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing

This "Zelensky knows Putin won't attack" narrative needs to die

LOL, no. It's just a bad translation (automated by Facebook LMAO). You, guys, have to stop quoting CNN.

They say != has been informed. Here "they" is impersonal like in: they say we can't do it - yes we can!

He literally says: [to us] they say the 16th will be the day of attack/invasion. Let's make it a Day of Uniting. Before that he says: they once again give the date of invasion and try to get us scared and sow panic.

This "Zelensky knows Putin won't attack" narrative needs to die

Hahaha, it's literally the opposite. He literally once again indirectly blames anglosaxones for spreading panic. Too bad, Andriy is not here. He could confirm (Ze speaks in Ukraine).

[jaichind]

I would also like the USA to present at the UN evidence they have that shows Russia will invade imminently.  They did it in the Cuban Missile Crisis, why not now ?   

[KaiserDave]

Zelensky suggesting he has received intelligence that Russia will invade.

Not quite the same as him saying, "Russia will invade on this date"...

https://twitter.com/kylieatwood/status/1493296318080593921
And here is Zelensky saying this in his own words: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=257130379907084&extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&ref=sharing

This "Zelensky knows Putin won't attack" narrative needs to die

LOL, no. It's just a bad translation (automated by Facebook LMAO). You, guys, have to stop quoting CNN.

They say != has been informed. Here "they" is impersonal like in: they say we can't do it - yes we can!

He literally says: [to us] they say the 16th will be the day of attack/invasion. Let's make it a Day of Uniting. Before that he says: they once again give the date of invasion and try to get us scared and sow panic.

This "Zelensky knows Putin won't attack" narrative needs to die

Hahaha, it's literally the opposite. He literally once again indirectly blames anglosaxones for spreading panic. Too bad, Andriy is not here. He could confirm (Ze speaks in Ukraine).

The narrative is idiotic regardless

[StateBoiler]

I would also like the USA to present at the UN evidence they have that shows Russia will invade imminently.  They did it in the Cuban Missile Crisis, why not now ?   

It's a lot easier to show pictures of static units in place than to show pictures of static units in place that may in the future move hundreds of kilometers.

[Orwell]

Hopefully there isn’t a war cause war is bad

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I would also like the USA to present at the UN evidence they have that shows Russia will invade imminently.  They did it in the Cuban Missile Crisis, why not now ?   

Either Russians will start shooting or publicly-available satellite imagery will confirms current Russian positions faster than a formal presentation to the UN could happen, I'd guess.

[StateBoiler]

Hopefully there isn’t a war cause war is bad

Astute analysis.

The U.S. are closing their embassy in Kiev and moving all remaining diplomatic personnel to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, which is so far west it's about 100km from Poland. New potential retreat capital for the Ukrainian government?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Bloomberg journo:
https://twitter.com/annmarie/status/1493308697115865088https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1493311203434807305

Yes. Everyone who speak Slavic language totally understand what Ze was saying (in Ukrainian).

The sheer incompetence of CNN/NBC etc journalists isn't surprising, though. But I wonder if CIA:s "intelligence" is much better 

[jaichind]

Zelensky should challenge Putin to a 1-on-1 KVN dual to settle this.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I would also like the USA to present at the UN evidence they have that shows Russia will invade imminently.  They did it in the Cuban Missile Crisis, why not now ?   

Either Russians will start shooting or publicly-available satellite imagery will confirms current Russian positions faster than a formal presentation to the UN could happen, I'd guess.

You always try to shift focus, lmao. It isn't about imagery. You don't even need this. There is TONS of (often firsthand, that is from soldiers themselves lmao) videos in Russian Tiktok/Twitter that shows how tanks/battalions are moving to Ukraine border etc etc.

There is no doubts about it, and the Russians have never even disputed it. It's the assessments about "imminent" invasion/taking Kiev/specific dates that need at least *some* evidence. It's one thing to say "Russia has enough military to take Kiev in 2 days" and "Russia is about/likely to invade Kiev any time soon". Btw, if we invade we'll take Kiev in 24 hours  - Russian Bear's assessment!

[jaichind]

There is no doubts about it, and the Russians have never even disputed it. It's the assessments about "imminent" invasion/taking Kiev/specific dates that need at least *some* evidence. It's one thing to say "Russia has enough military to take Kiev in 2 days" and "Russia is about/likely to invade Kiev any time soon". Btw, if we invade we'll take Kiev in 24 hours  - Russian Bear's assessment!

For Russia to take Kiev in 24 hours I think they have to attack from Belarus

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1493295395992227849

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1493295395992227849

Russia and Belarus are currently conducting exercises. I’d hope the CIA would be smart enough to figure out if troop movements are related likely to be related to exercises or actual positioning for an invasion of Ukraine.

 US warnings have been generally vague, moving to “attack positions” where? Belarus, the Donbass, Crimea, 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border? I understand that this is highly sensitive intelligence, but with how little meat there has been on the bones of what “US officials” have been publicly releasing, it gives some weight to Russian statements  about American “hysteria”.

[Flyersfan232]

https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1493295395992227849

What’s the false flag going to be y’all think

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/CBSWalsh/status/1493295395992227849

Russia and Belarus are currently conducting exercises. I’d hope the CIA would be smart enough to figure out if troop movements are related likely to be related to exercises or actual positioning for an invasion of Ukraine.

 US warnings have been generally vague, moving to “attack positions” where? Belarus, the Donbass, Crimea, 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border? I understand that this is highly sensitive intelligence, but with how little meat there has been on the bones of what “US officials” have been publicly releasing, it gives some weight to Russian statements  about American “hysteria”.

Videos show Russian units and missiles advancing towards Ukraine border

The build-up of Russian forces close to the Ukrainian border continues apace, with everything from submarines and amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea to short-range ballistic missiles, tanks and howitzers around Ukraine's northeastern edges.

CNN has geolocated and authenticated social media videos of these movements -- though there are likely many more that are not being observed.

CNN geolocated these videos at the village of Sereteno, about 15 miles (24 kilometers) from the border. They were uploaded on Sunday and show tanks moving through the area.

https://twitter.com/Michael1Sheldon/status/1493036503974486018

But maybe myself and many others are being too cynical about our fine Russian friends, and thishttps://twitter.com/hengenahm/status/1493332619597172744 along with  revitalizing a flagging NATO, convincing Sweden and Finland they ought to join NATO, calling into question EU-Russian energy commerce, and finally get NATO to arm Ukraine to the teeth, while spending more rubles than I can readily calculate on said military deployments are all part of Mr. Putin's Peaceful Plan to... do what, exactly? Make unserious demands about NATO abandoning its actual members, while whining that NATO has kept its promises about not threatening Russia for a quarter-century (while Russia has engaged in military action with multiple neighboring countries)?

That's the thing I keep coming back to. If it's not intended for a bona-fide criminal invasion of Ukraine, then its a great deal of trouble for no return other than a lot of media attention. And I can't help but think that Mr. Putin's government ought to be competent to come up with ways to get that without all the negatives (for Russian interests) attached to the current course of action. So, am I to conclude that the current Russian government in reasonably peaceful but really, really incompetent? Or that it is doing precisely what it looks like it's doing? I know what Occam's Shaving Device tells me.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

A grim prediction for the next 48 (if not 24) hours:

The Duma will vote to request that Putin recognize Donetsk and Luhansk. (Because that's what sham legislatures do. They say, "Pretty please Mr. Autocrat, haven't we recited our lines nicely today?")

In response, the abysmally idiotic government of Ukraine will launch a pointless attack there will be a false flag attack by "Ukraine" on Russians staged by the Russia government.

Which Putin will - with Sen. Collins-like levels of concern and regret - use as an excuse to launch an assault on Ukraine with the 70+ percent of Russia's military who by sheer coincidence just happened to be sitting right outside Ukraine's territory.

Meanwhile, our fine Russian posters, and their right-wing fellow travelers will post even more gaslighting garbage about events.  (It will be of some interest to see whether Fox News bothers to provide any remotely decent coverage of unfolding events, or if it will be content with creating soundbytes for RT while simultaneously conducting an in-depth investigation of immense journalistic concern into the exact font on the menu of the restaurant where Vice-President Harris and Secretary Clinton had lunch seven years ago.)

[jaichind]

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/15/ukraine-crisis-russian-mps-to-vote-on-recognising-separatist-held-areas-in-east-as-indepen

"Russian MPs urge Putin to recognise two separatist-held areas in eastern Ukraine as independen"

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/russia-returning-some-troops-to-base-after-drills-interfax-says

"Russia Says Some Troops Are Returning to Base After Drills"

US equity futures up 1.3% on this news.