Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

The problem is, of course, that whilst that principle was adopted for overwhelmingly just and obvious reasons there are times when rigidly sticking to it come what may causes problems.

It remains a total nonsense that almost no states will recognise Somaliland, for instance.

[StateBoiler]

The problem is, of course, that whilst that principle was adopted for overwhelmingly just and obvious reasons there are times when rigidly sticking to it come what may causes problems.

It remains a total nonsense that almost no states will recognise Somaliland, for instance.

I agree, although that's not a war for a land grab as much as a splintering of a failed state such as Yugoslavia that everyone has approved of save Kosovo.

[jaichind]

The NATO and U.S. response to Russia was leaked to a Spanish newspaper, and the U.S. said it was real. Not much for the Russians in it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-nato-accuse-russia-provocative-troop-missile-deployments/

So what is this magical diplomacy answer the Ukrainians think will stop war? The Russians are not giving away anything and the Americans/NATO are not giving away anything.

Not so sure there is not much for Russians in it.  The key sentence is

"The United States continues to firmly support NATO's Open Door Policy, and believes that the NRC is the appropriate forum for discussions of that issue,"

Note the use of "continues" weakens this position since it implies it is a historical carryover versus a core belief.  Also " believes that the NRC is the appropriate forum for discussions of that issue" implies that this issue NATO expansion is a topic of future discussion and that the USA could be open to some sort of compromise. 

Clearly it is not the USA backing down but it does leave the door open for some give and take in future discussions.

[StateBoiler]

The NATO and U.S. response to Russia was leaked to a Spanish newspaper, and the U.S. said it was real. Not much for the Russians in it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/us-nato-accuse-russia-provocative-troop-missile-deployments/

So what is this magical diplomacy answer the Ukrainians think will stop war? The Russians are not giving away anything and the Americans/NATO are not giving away anything.

Not so sure there is not much for Russians in it.  The key sentence is

"The United States continues to firmly support NATO's Open Door Policy, and believes that the NRC is the appropriate forum for discussions of that issue,"

Note the use of "continues" weakens this position since it implies it is a historical carryover versus a core belief.  Also " believes that the NRC is the appropriate forum for discussions of that issue" implies that this issue NATO expansion is a topic of future discussion and that the USA could be open to some sort of compromise.  

Clearly it is not the USA backing down but it does leave the door open for some give and take in future discussions.

They did not concede anything in their reply. Their "we'll talk months from now" is the diplomatic equivalent of sending a bill about a current problem to committee where it is never heard from again. The U.S. know the Russians are not going to plant their deployed soldiers in place 6 months to see how an NRC forum discussion in August turns out.

I'm not saying they should concede, but neither side coming towards the other at all leads to 2 potential outcomes:

-Russians withdraw gaining nothing, which would incredibly lose Putin face and power and would be very Khrushchev post-Cuban Missile Crisis
-Russians go into Ukraine

If what everyone thinks of Putin is true, then he's only doing the 2nd of those options. Therefore, why aren't the Ukrainians prepared? What is the Ukrainian Foreign Minister's magical diplomatic solution to this that will remove Russian troops from the state's borders if they do not believe a Russian invasion into the country will happen in the near-term? I'm led to suspect they don't have much of a plan at all and expect the Russians to invade...for which they are intentionally not mobilizing their military further for, all the while having received these shiny defensive aids from the U.S. and European countries. Meanwhile Zelenskyy on Tuesday signed something increasing the size of the Ukrainian military by 100,000 over the next 3 years, which troops added in 2024 don't help you in February 2022.

Politico's National Security Daily from afternoon of 2/3:

The Biden administration alleges the Kremlin could create a pretext for a Ukraine invasion by distributing a fake video of Kyiv’s forces targeting Russian territory or Russian-speakers — thereby giving President VLADIMIR PUTIN what he needs to send troops rolling over the border.

A senior administration official told NatSec Daily that Moscow has already recruited people to be in the video and that Russian intelligence officials are “intimately involved” in the plot.

“This video likely will depict graphic scenes of a staged false explosion with corpses, actors depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations and military equipment,” the official said. “We believe that the military equipment used in this fabricated attack will be made to look like it is Ukrainian or from allied nations.” It’s also possible Russia will make it look like Ukraine used Turkish-made Bayraktar drones in the staged strike.

To be crystal clear: The administration isn’t saying that such a video has been made but rather that Russia is in the pre-production planning stage.

The official made clear that this is just one option among others at Putin’s disposal. “We are publicizing it in the hopes that it dissuades Russia from its intended course of action,” the official said.

“We don’t know definitively that this is the route they’re going to take,” deputy national security adviser JON FINER told MSNBC’s ANDREA MITCHELL today. Should Russia go ahead with this plan, though, Finer said making this information public would complicate the Kremlin’s efforts to spread disinformation about its reason for escalating the Ukraine war while keeping America’s allies and partners aligned.

Finer also reiterated that a Russian invasion “could happen at any time, that means it could happen immediately or it could happen over a longer period of time.”

Another option is that Putin could say he’s acting to protect a newly recognized nation composed of separatist territories within Ukraine, the senior administration official said.

There’s currently a recognition measure moving through Russia’s rubber-stamp Parliament to formally treat breakaway parts of Ukraine as independent. If passed and agreed to by Putin, the Kremlin boss could then claim his forces are simply backing this new nation against Kyiv’s aggressions.

“In line with its previous interventions, Russia would portray its actions as defending ethnic Russians and coming at the request of a sovereign government for assistance,” the senior administration official told us.

The U.S. shared the intel with NATO allies before releasing it, per an official of a European NATO country.

Since January, President JOE BIDEN’s team has said that Russia was working on a pretext plan but never provided concrete evidence of what that would entail. We still haven’t seen such evidence — officials aren’t releasing intelligence to safeguard sources and methods, they say.

Even so, the administration is right to note that the Kremlin has often used these playbooks in the past ahead of invasions, so it’s not as far-fetched as, say, claiming Iraq has yellowcake.

Releasing this information is another indicator that the U.S., along with its allies, is pessimistic about the prospects for a negotiated peace. While the administration still seeks a diplomatic resolution, it seems the Kremlin is making other plans.

Seriously, I think that's the end game, because no one is doing worthwhile diplomacy right now. And the Ukrainians are just sitting around. The Russians will invade a couple weeks, the Ukrainians are not well-prepared on purpose, they'll inflict some casualties but will ultimately have to withdraw from whatever the Russians want to take, and more Ukrainians will die than Russians will probably. I guess losing your territory as a foreign power kills your citizens is worth it to serve your geopolitical end goal of we're closer to Europe and have all this shiny new military equipment that we didn't use to its potential in the war we just lost.

There's I guess the possibility the Ukrainians are playing coy and smart and have this brilliant secret strategy planned out to prevent war and defeat the Russians, but if they were capable of such a thing, they would've never lost Crimea or Donbass to start with. Whatever, elect more competent political leadership next election I guess.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Looks like Russia has more or less finished its buildup of equipment and has begun large scale personnel movements to the front and is conducting its first readiness exercises. Continues to be in line with the predicted timetable of an invasion in ~1-2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1489269948279107590

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1489732150823989248

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1489759897885495298

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1489756520418095108

[Frodo]

I don't have any remaining doubts that there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The question is how big it will be, and how much Ukrainian territory will come under Russian occupation -hopefully not the whole country.  I just hope Russia is prepared for the likelihood of two new countries (Finland and Sweden) joining NATO as a direct result, and the movement of our bases (along with the infrastructure) in Germany and Italy to Poland and Romania, and further reinforcements heading to the Baltic states, and the overall reinvigoration of the NATO alliance. 

I thank Vladimir Putin for reminding everyone of the original purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the value it still holds.     

[All Along The Watchtower]

This is what happens when you constantly stoke the Kremlin's paranoia.

If the US and its NATO allies aren't prepared to send their own citizens over to defend Ukraine, then they should just shut up about "serious consequences" for Russia (more sanctions won't work). I'm tired of this chicken hawkery from geopolitical chess playing Blob suits who have never had to face anything remotely approaching war.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Looks like Russia has more or less finished its buildup of equipment and has begun large scale personnel movements to the front and is conducting its first readiness exercises. Continues to be in line with the predicted timetable of an invasion in ~1-2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1489269948279107590

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1489732150823989248

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1489759897885495298

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1489756520418095108

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1490060541745901572

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what happens when you constantly stoke the Kremlin's paranoia.

If the US and its NATO allies aren't prepared to send their own citizens over to defend Ukraine, then they should just shut up about "serious consequences" for Russia (more sanctions won't work). I'm tired of this chicken hawkery from geopolitical chess playing Blob suits who have never had to face anything remotely approaching war.

Sanctions are mere virtue signalling that make it harder for people across boundaries to interact as part of one global world order. Much like what the Cuba sanctions did.
The only real winner from round no. 3,532 of sanctions is China. That, and media aiming to use culture war against Russia for clicks and ratings.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

This is what happens when you constantly stoke the Kremlin's paranoia.

If the US and its NATO allies aren't prepared to send their own citizens over to defend Ukraine, then they should just shut up about "serious consequences" for Russia (more sanctions won't work). I'm tired of this chicken hawkery from geopolitical chess playing Blob suits who have never had to face anything remotely approaching war.

Sanctions are mere virtue signalling that make it harder for people across boundaries to interact as part of one global world order. Much like what the Cuba sanctions did.
The only real winner from round no. 3,532 of sanctions is China. That, and media aiming to use culture war against Russia for clicks and ratings.

Strange logic. Sanctions are to raise the costs for Russia deciding to invade a neighbouring country. Ukraine, Georgia, Finland and other third countries would be the winners. Of course sanctions lack the ability to deter on their own, economic pressure is supposed to be cumulative with arms shipments, troop deployments and diplomacy in order to ensure that Russia loses more than it gains from invading Ukraine.

[HisGrace]

I thank Vladimir Putin for reminding everyone of the original purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the value it still holds.     

This is one of those classic international relations dilemmas where it's unclear what Putin's intentions are so it's hard to read the situation. If he just wants to formally annex Crimea and keep Ukraine from joining NATO as you noted it could ultimately end up making NATO stronger in the region and put Russia in a worse geopolitical situation even with Ukraine out of NATO. But some people think his goal is to discredit the entire NATO alliance, in which case he's going to keep stepping over the line until he forces a confrontation, hoping that NATO and especially the US will back down, proving the agreement to be a bluff. Hopefully that's not the case, because it could put everyone in a very dangerous situation.

[Helsinkian]

Ben & Jerry's sides with the Kremlin.

https://twitter.com/KareemRifai/status/1490053373516730369

[StateBoiler]

This is what happens when you constantly stoke the Kremlin's paranoia.

If the US and its NATO allies aren't prepared to send their own citizens over to defend Ukraine, then they should just shut up about "serious consequences" for Russia (more sanctions won't work). I'm tired of this chicken hawkery from geopolitical chess playing Blob suits who have never had to face anything remotely approaching war.

Sanctions are mere virtue signalling that make it harder for people across boundaries to interact as part of one global world order. Much like what the Cuba sanctions did.
The only real winner from round no. 3,532 of sanctions is China. That, and media aiming to use culture war against Russia for clicks and ratings.

Strange logic. Sanctions are to raise the costs for Russia deciding to invade a neighbouring country.

That happened 7 years ago after Crimea. And here we are.

This is one of those classic international relations dilemmas where it's unclear what Putin's intentions are so it's hard to read the situation. If he just wants to formally annex Crimea and keep Ukraine from joining NATO as you noted it could ultimately end up making NATO stronger in the region and put Russia in a worse geopolitical situation even with Ukraine out of NATO. But some people think his goal is to discredit the entire NATO alliance, in which case he's going to keep stepping over the line until he forces a confrontation, hoping that NATO and especially the US will back down, proving the agreement to be a bluff. Hopefully that's not the case, because it could put everyone in a very dangerous situation.

If his goal is to prove the agreement a bluff, then game theory says he should take action that would cause the more dovish members to split from the more hawkish members on actions. This is all private discussions we don't know the details of, but that almost assuredly happened over Georgia 2008 considering the different public takes on the conflict. On Crimea I don't know what happened as far as the Obama administration's talks with Europe but they acted like they were united about it publicly unlike what happened with Georgia.

So Putin would need to cause an action that makes the U.S. want X while others, probably Germany being the easiest one to look at, say no. I can see certain eastern European members of NATO leaking to media any NATO leaders that decided to go dovish if the Russians invade Ukraine out of spite.

(German-wise, it's great timing, the country just changed control so the leader is new at the job and he's from the left-wing probably more anti-conflict party.)

All above is why I think we'll see a limited invasion. It allows Putin to save face with all the buildup, weaken Ukraine, stabilize their control of Crimea, stabilize the breakaway eastern regions, remove Ukraine further from Black Sea naval control and influence, but not overrun the whole country because the Russians don't want to deal with a guerilla insurgency. If they were going to overrun the whole country, I'd expect the Russian-supported Transnistrian forces to go into Ukraine from its west for purposes of diversion, opening another front to weaken Ukraine's overall military response. Is there any sign of Transnistrian mobilization?

Scholz is meeting Biden today at the White House. Macron is meeting Putin today in Moscow, before heading to Kiev.

[StateBoiler]

If the US and its NATO allies aren't prepared to send their own citizens over to defend Ukraine, then they should just shut up about "serious consequences" for Russia (more sanctions won't work). I'm tired of this chicken hawkery from geopolitical chess playing Blob suits who have never had to face anything remotely approaching war.

This post explains the failure of the West's engagement in the Syrian conflict in a nutshell.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Take all of these reports with a grain of salt, but it eerily comports with my read of Putin as an increasingly detached figure who is being overly optimistic in assessing the military and political consequences of a Ukraine invasion.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1490688185621528579

[PSOL]

If the US and its NATO allies aren't prepared to send their own citizens over to defend Ukraine, then they should just shut up about "serious consequences" for Russia (more sanctions won't work). I'm tired of this chicken hawkery from geopolitical chess playing Blob suits who have never had to face anything remotely approaching war.

This post explains the failure of the West's engagement in the Syrian conflict in a nutshell.

The rebels, YPG, and IS were deeply entrenched and were at a state of pushing out the Assad Regime up to the very point in late 2016 through mid-2017—that with some Iranian guidance—the Yemeni revolution brought a hostile state on Saudi borders and both Iran and Russia got deeply involved bringing a whole host of help to overwhelm the defunded TOW-delivery projects and Gulf money now diverted southward. It was through a coordinated effort of amping up the pressure regionally and bringing about discord in the systemic alliances and coordination of proxies that the Houthis have broken the GCC and the Assad regime has ended the Syrian Civil war with the inability to get Idlib back away from a Turkish colony.

If anyone is to blame outside of The US not enforcing a No-fly zone, it is the Gulf countries and Jordan not invading Syria and cutting the long stalemate there and rebellion in Yemen from the bud. They failed spectacularly also in not presenting a unified plan of action and instead let funds and other resources be distributed in a disorganized manner to Al-Qaeda’s numerous franchises and allied groupings, Ahrar Al-Sham, the Southern Front, and some rogue (and not so rogue) sheikhs funding the IS. Then the US should be blamed allowing the oil fields controlled by the YPG get complicated in continuing the flow by abandoning them so hard that they went begging to Russia.

What is happening in Ukraine is an insurmountable magnitude more incompetent than that, given they have an entire state to work with and for most militias to be well integrated into the state. What is concerning is the weapons transfers continuing as major sections of the US and it’s minor partners and national proxies outright say they won’t defend Ukraine and deny it membership as Russia pulls a master ruse to goad some of the oligarchs and militias to see reality for a brief moment. The political situation in Ukraine is heading towards not annexation, but inner collapse first as Ukrainian society is in free fall from Covid and a lack of FDI because of war-fearmongering that they repeatedly deny is happening.

All of this without the escalation in fighting, and yet Russia successfully exposed NATO, the EU, and the United States as paper tigers, pushovers, and disunited pansies.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine

Home» News»6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine
Russian Navy Ship Heading To Black Sea
Click to Enlarge. Russian Navy landing ship RFS Kaliningrad (102) seen passing through the Dardanelles on February 8th. Photograph copyright Yörük Işık, with permission.
6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine
Russia's military build-up around Ukraine is moving into a new phase. Emerging from under a veil of 'drills', 6 landing ships and a submarine are now sailing into the Black Sea. This brings them ever closer to potential operations in Ukraine.

H I Sutton 08 Feb 2022

The first part of a Russian Navy amphibious landing ship force, which can carry troops, tanks and supplies, has entered the Dardanelles, connecting the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. This is significant, representing a point of no return in their controversial voyage towards the Black Sea and Ukraine.

The narrow waterways running through Istanbul connects the Black Sea and Mediterranean. The first is the Dardanelles, followed by the famous Bosporus. Due to traffic regulation ships do not turn around. 6 amphibious warfare ships and a submarine are expected to pass north into the Black Sea over the next few days.

Entering these waterways removes any final ambiguity surrounding their mission. Their travel from the Baltic and Northern fleets are undeniably part of President Putin’s Ukraine build-up. These ships are, due to their amphibious warfare role, suitable for offensive troop landings. Or vital logistics support to land operations along the coast.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yesterday in News.

Before meeting Putin Macron mentioned Finlandiation of Ukraine.

Mr. Macron said he had coordinated closely with the Western allies, including the United States and Germany. But some supporters of Ukraine’s pro-Western course have criticized him for being too solicitous of Mr. Putin’s demands. Mr. Macron did nothing to assuage those concerns by telling reporters before his meeting with Mr. Putin that a “Finlandization” of Ukraine was “one of the models on the table.”

The term alludes to how Finland, facing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, was able to maintain independence from its powerful neighbor and survive as a democracy on condition of strict neutrality. A “Finlandization” of Ukraine would imply that it would never join NATO and that Russia would exercise considerable influence over its political options.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/europe/putin-macron-russia-france-ukraine.html

BBC so called journalist asked Blinken about US/Europe push for Minsk Agreement and whether it would be "disruptive" to Ukraine...

https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-european-union-high-representative-for-foreign-affairs-and-security-policy-and-vice-president-of-the-european-commission-josep-borrell-at-a-joint-press-availabilit/

MR PRICE:  We’ll now take two questions.  The first question goes to the BBC, Barbara Usher.

QUESTION:  Thank you.  Good afternoon.  A question about diplomacy for you, Mr. Blinken.  The U.S. and Europe are pushing Minsk as the solution while Ukraine is completely against it.  Do you still think a measure of autonomy for Donbas, the autonomy stipulated in the agreement, is the way to go?

And a question for you, Mr. Borrell.  You’re welcome to comment on that as well, but with regards to security does the EU agree with the U.S. assessment that a potential imminent invasion of Ukraine is in the cards?  If so, why isn’t the EU raising the same alarm as the Americans?  And if not, do you have a different assessment of the situation?

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  Thank you, Barbara.  I’m happy to start.

With regard to Minsk, the United States and Ukraine are united in believing that Minsk is the path forward to resolve the conflict in the Donbas that was created by Russia’s invasion in 2014, and the best way to restore Ukraine’s border, to restore its sovereignty, as well as to uphold the rights of Ukrainian citizens, including those living in the Donbas.

Repeatedly over the last years, Ukraine has sought to move forward with the implementation of Minsk.  The Normandy Format, as it’s called with France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia involved has been the principal vehicle for trying to advance that.  I think if you look back over the requirements established in the Minsk Agreements, three agreements over the course of several months, it is a fair assessment to say that Ukraine has sought to move forward on most if not all of them, while Russia has made good on virtually none of its obligations under Minsk.

But in all of my conversations with our Ukrainian counterparts, they remain committed to it.  There was recently a meeting of senior officials in the Normandy Format.  Ukraine continues to put forward good-faith ideas on how to move forward.  Minsk does not spell out some issues of sequencing when it comes to the steps that the parties need to take.  Ukraine has been approaching this in good faith.  We have not to date seen Russia do the same.

The agreements speak of special status for the Donbas, and I believe that with the appropriate sequencing, the Ukrainians would be prepared to move forward.  But again, the overall picture on Minsk since 2014 has been one in which Ukraine has sought to move forward on most of its requirements and commitments; Russia has not.  So if Russia is serious about implementing Minsk, I think it will find a strong partner in Ukraine, and France and Germany are helping to lead this effort.  There’s supposed to be another meeting of the – in the Normandy Format in the next couple of weeks.  I hope Russia will demonstrate a seriousness of purpose.  There are some near-term steps that could be taken to continue to build confidence in – toward the implementation of Minsk.  We have one of them that’s already more or less in place, which is a ceasefire that brings things back to the levels of 2020.  It hasn’t been perfect, but it’s definitely been an improvement over what we were seeing just a few weeks ago, so that’s encouraging.

The Ukrainians have also talked about having a release of prisoners on both sides, and making sure as well that across the line of contact people can move much more freely.  Unfortunately, that’s been blocked by those on the separatist side.  I think that would be a good way to show seriousness of purpose, and then to pursue the actual implementation of the accords.  But bottom line is Ukraine is committed to Minsk.  If Russia is too, then I believe there’s a way to move forward and resolve this conflict.

QUESTION:  Some in Ukraine are saying that the level of autonomy would be disruptive to your country.

SECRETARY BLINKEN:  This is all for discussion and in progress.  Again, the Minsk Agreements talk about special status, but there are myriad other requirements that go to security, that go to restoring Ukraine’s border, that go to steps that unfortunately continue to be taken primarily by the Russian and separatist side that need to be addressed.  And I believe that those are addressed and addressed pursuant to what was agreed in 2014.  There’s a way to resolve this through the Minsk Agreements.

[StateBoiler]

Reads like Macron got nothing in Moscow.

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/

[Storr]

Reads like Macron got nothing in Moscow.

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/

Yeah, it seems like Putin used it mostly as an opportunity to look tough in front of the cameras:

"Jabbing a finger in the air at a French reporter, [Putin] said that “Russia is a military superpower and a nuclear superpower” and warned: “There will be no winners and you will be drawn into this conflict against your own will.”"

"“I want to underscore once again even though I have already mentioned it — I’d really love if you really hear me and bring this point to your audience, that if Ukraine is in NATO and if they decided to take back Crimea using military means,” he said, “European countries will automatically be in a military conflict with Russia.”"

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I don't think it's a coincidence Scholz was in Washington the same day. The trip to Moscow was obviously choreographed with allies. That said it was always a desperate gamble by Macron considering the Russian line throughout the crisis has been that they only think direct negotiations with the United States is at all worthwhile (and even then). All it did was give a leg up for Putin in the narrative war with his relentless trolling to a foreign audience about NATO expansion.

But yeah the diplomatic lines have been drawn for weeks now. The US and NATO have agreed not to concede anything meaningful to Russia under military threat. So the ball's in Putin's court: drawdown or military action.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1490804393813450758

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1490804393813450758

“Germany is increasingly viewed more of a Russian ally than a western ally by many in  Eastern Europe and Kyiv.”

[jaichind]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

[LabourJersey]

I think the collective West is splitting into the Anglosphere (US UK) and the Carolingian Empire (Germany France Italy) on the Russia issue.  The Carolingian Empire will try to go for a deal.  It will be fun to see the Carolingian Empire does come up with a deal with Putin what the Anglosphere reaction will be.

Are France and Italy really as eager for a deal as the Germans? I haven't gotten that vibe from the way Macron is acting (and I haven't seen anything about Draghi)