Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Good news for Ukraine:

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1558069162873962496

There now seems to be more sources for Soviet artillery ammunition coming online. Over the long-term, Ukraine should be able to get more modern heavy weapons on a regular basis. This won't be an immediate benefit for Ukraine, but with the eventual mud season slowing down offensive operations, it could possibly put Ukraine in a better position for counter offensives in 2023. Absent a collapse among Russian forces, Ukraine will have to play the long game, unfortunately.

[Virginiá]

Funny enough, there is a not totally-insane theory that Ukraine didn't actually hit the Saky air base with long-range missiles, but rather someone (possibly partisans, special forces, etc) used a drone / loitering munition that caused a large fire on the dry brush/grass that eventually spread and caused those small fuel depots around the jets surrounded by berms to go kablooey. This damage was likely exacerbated by missiles and other munitions Russians have a tendency to leave laying around on air bases. It's not unlikely - Sevastopol's fleet HQ was hit by a Ukrainian loitering munition some month(s) ago. There was also clearly a large fire spreading before the two huge explosions we've seen in so many videos, which the scorch marks across the landscape confirm.

The US and UKR have denied ATACMS, which honestly seems truthful because Biden has been adamant about not giving it to Ukraine, at least so far. Another big reason is that based on the sat images, the main munition bunkers appear intact in the after images. There is no way Ukraine would not go after those if they managed to get long range missiles and fire them through protected airspace. They would arguably be the primary targets. Ukraine did recently take down some S-300/S-400 radars and launchers in Kherson days before but that air base had its own overlapping AD complexes in Crimea that out-ranged the anti-radiation missiles the US gave Ukraine.

If all this were an accurate depiction of what happened, it would have happened due to sloppy and negligent Russian supply procedures.

Just a thought.

[Virginiá]

This is a good article about why Russia continues to dominate so much with artillery:

https://kyivindependent.com/national/why-ukraine-struggles-to-combat-russias-artillery-superiority

Yet another wake-up call occurred on Aug. 2, just days after the Russian-led militants launched a massive offensive in the town of Pisky, a ruined suburb just northwest of occupied Donetsk next to the city’s destroyed airport.

[...]

Russian artillery methodically destroyed Ukrainian concrete defenses without facing any resistance from the Ukrainian side. Ukrainian counter-battery was not working at all, according to the message.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, serving Ukrainian artillery officers polled by the Kyiv Independent admitted that Ukrainian counter-battery activity remains largely problematic, mainly due to the lack of effective top-level organization.

From their perspective, all main components of counter-battery warfare, especially target acquisition via observation points, radar detection, drones, and sound ranging, need to be improved. And target acquisition must be better synchronized with artillery pieces reacting fast to destroy revealed Russian weapons.

And all components need to work as a system and in cooperation with infantry units that should be holding the important local high ground points for artillery, which is often not the case, as artillerists said.

In many cases, Russian successes were ensured not by its overwhelming advantage but by a problematic Ukrainian counter-artillery reaction.

“The infantry has paid for those flaws with its blood,” a Ukrainian artillery officer told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia still retains an artillery advantage, but often it seems Ukrainian forces are not properly responding, if they do at all. It's not necessarily that they don't have the resources (although at times it is), but that there isn't proper communication. As the article says, Ukraine doesn't have artillery brigades either. There is no organizational command of their artillery forces that would direct it to do counter-battery fire. That comes from other ground forces, but clearly it is not working. I've seen reports of very effective counter-battery against Russians, even from Russian sources, but I think this is probably an example of some units being effective and others not so much, and and availability of resources is also a factor (artillery itself, drones and mobile radar, which they need more).

Just worth noting that Ukrainian losses aren't happening purely because of ammo shortages or a lack of heavy weapons, but sometimes it's just a lack of proper training, organization and tactics. The upside here is that this is something they can mostly fix without huge amounts of foreign aid, aside from needing more & better communications equipment.

[Virginiá]

Russian Command moving to the left bank of the Dnieper. Possibly laying the groundwork for a fallback of Russian forces to more defensible ground.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1558478313701707778

[Virginiá]

Russians looting en masse, possibly indicative of their intent to leave the region, although this could just be a normal thing for them:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558875749725118467

Hard to see how they continue to defend this area, though, at least without significant losses.

[Virginiá]

This video was apparently taken of large store of Russian munitions and heavy weapons in Dzankhoy, Crimea, which later became the target of today's attack lol

https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1559465873429200903

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1559433800664453121

[Virginiá]

I think if Ukraine did get ATACMS missiles, we'll eventually find out one way or another. Looking at the list of publicly known operators, the US and Romania seems like the only plausible countries. IIRC, Romania would have to get permission from the US to transfer even one to Ukraine. They also only have around 50 missiles, so if it was them, these long range attacks are not likely to continue for very long.

The idea of partisans is intriguing to me, as you can see from the first tweet video of people passing by tons of munitions just laying out in the open by a train tracks - it wouldn't be too difficult for a determined individual to set off an uncontrollable chain of explosions there. Especially with cheap drones rigged with grenades or other explosives. My only question would be, why now? Why wasn't this happening months ago? So that makes it a bit harder for me to believe.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1559284386473955328

[Virginiá]

If and when Ukraine gets Kherson back in wonder if they’ll push for Crimea direct or turn toward Melitopol

There is Kherson the city and Kherson the Oblast/province. If Russia has really lost the entire oblast, then Crimea would be cut off from mainland Ukraine and it would be a pivotal strategic disaster for Russia.

All this is to say that I think Kherson will define the war, because Putin is going to throw everything he has at the AFU in order to keep them from liberating it. If that's not enough, then Russia has probably lost the war, unless Ukraine runs out of steam at the end of that campaign and both essentially have to sue for peace.

At any rate, Crimea would not be an easy campaign as it is a more defensible region, and it would make more sense to take back the mainland first.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1560719398536626176

America still dropping huge aid to Ukraine. Lots of good things here.

Europe's biggest 6 countries didn't make any new commitments in July, and overall aid has been slowing. My inner optimist tells me it'll pick back up, but if it doesn't, Putin's gamble that NATO won't have the will to keep supplying Ukraine long-term might end up being true unless America ups its own aid to fill in for Europe. In any case, I hope major EU nations consider this a wake-up call that they can't just sit around continuing to neglect their militaries less they find themselves ill-prepared to deal with hostilities in the future that may more directly affect their own interests. NATO doesn't mean much if most of the countries that make it up are incapable of fighting a war longer than a few weeks.

It's weird seeing myself so fixated on this because I was never really a hawk before, but I think I do agree with the signatories of that open letter urging the Biden administration to increase the amount and frequency of aid delivery, including more heavy weapons, aircraft, and long range munitions. Undoubtly heavily influenced by my extended family being in occupied Ukraine but also I think Russia winning this war will represent a continuing threat to peace in Europe and Central Asia, and defeating Russia now & diminishing their war machine will allow the US to focus more on its Asia in the future, and for Europe to be less on edge with the threat of continued Russian aggression looming over them.

[Virginiá]

somewhat unrelated but what are the X's and V's for?

No clue. Аndriу might have a better idea, although he hasn't been online in weeks.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1561412390524256257?s=20&t=UDuJHy4JwpC6b5kJA8YTjw

Re: tweet - I don't find it too weird. He is basically just saying Ukraine is so successful with existing weapons now that they don't need it (from America's perspective). In other words, they are doing well enough that the Biden admin. doesn't feel whatever risks they perceive here are worth taking given other weapons and tactics are accomplishing most of the same goals.

But yes, technically yea it's still a non-answer.

[Virginiá]

Well, any way you cut it, there is definitely a major operation going on:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1564348154132238337

[Virginiá]

And another update from the WSJ for those you either interested in and/or following the US weapons inventory issues and supplies of weaponry to Ukraine.

As someone who works in the MFG sector this certainly makes sense, that it can be difficult to easily and quickly expand mfg capacity to meet product demand, even if you have backup lines which can be relatively easily converted from one product to another to meet a dramatic increase in demand, or to cover contingencies if there are significant issues causes disruptions from "large scale MFG lines" based out of Asia-Pacific region, and convert hybrid R&D and MFG lines to full scale 24x7 production models.

[...]

True, but this quote kind of rings out as well, and I remember reading quotes from industry officials about this months ago:

“This was knowable. It was foreseeable. It was forewarned, including from industry leaders to the Pentagon. And it was easily fixable,” said Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington.

[...]

But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, industry officials have complained that the Pentagon hasn’t always communicated those requirements, which often change, creating delays, and leaving defense contractors unable to prepare for more production.

Honestly, the US should have started this at least 5 months ago. I feel like after a month of fighting, they should have had the foresight to quickly begin this process. US officials clearly knew early on that if the war wasn't quick, Ukraine was eventually going to need large quantities of 155mm artillery systems & ammunition. There also isn't a financial problem at hand given the amount of money flowing into this conflict from the US alone.

I won't speak to the intricacies of how quick the US could technically expand production if they threw lots of money at it, since I don't really know, but lines like this are quite frustrating:

Speaking on an earnings call July 19, Jim Taiclet, chief executive of Lockheed Martin Corp., said the Pentagon has yet to put the contracts in place or coordinate with industry to buy more supplies, a process that often takes two to three years.

We might never know what is possible because apparently the US has made little to no effort to get new contracts going, let alone "speed up" production. This sucks for Ukraine but quite honestly doesn't make the DoD look very competent.

Amazing!

[Virginiá]

In other Ukrainian news:

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1567120561603493889

[Virginiá]

Article describes US munition production efforts

US military working on analysis to shape and support Ukraine's military in long term

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/07/politics/us-military-ukraine-analysis/index.html

The Pentagon issued $364 million in contracts late last month to a variety of US and international suppliers. "This is a big deal," said William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told CNN. "I can't say the sources, but they are around the world."
The goal is to deliver 100,000 rounds in 90 days and 15,000 a month after that.

The longer-term goal is to deliver more than 30,000 rounds a month in the next two to three years. Separately, another defense official said a contract is expected from the Army in the coming days to begin to replenish US 155 mm ammunition stocks due to the high volume being sent to Ukraine.
Current US production is about 15,000 rounds a month at facilities in Pennsylvania but additional government funding is aimed at getting production up to more than 30,000 rounds a month.

To replenish US weapons stocks from the drawdown of inventory sent to Ukraine, the US has issued several critical contracts since May including: $624 million to Raytheon for Stinger missile systems; $352 million to Raytheon and Lockheed Martin for the Javelin anti-armor system; $33 million to Lockheed for HIMARS multiple rocket launcher, and $8 million to AeroVironment for smaller Switchblade drones. The Pentagon also hopes to more than double monthly HIMARS production to 12 launchers per month.

[Virginiá]

Reports were the original tank fist that broke through was around 15+ tanks, and since then after capturing 700 - 1000 sq km, Ukraine has captured a huge amount of Russian equipment - BTRs, APCs, tanks, command & control vehicles, supply trucks, self-propelled howitzers, air defense, huge stores of ammunition, etc

This is going to hurt even more when it is all turned against Russia in the near future, particularly considering that one of Ukraine's top issues right now is a lack of armored vehicles and tanks (hence why they are rushing enemy positions with armored Humvees and sometimes even pickup trucks)

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1568130343743414276

https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1567990273803698176

Just 2 days worth of captures and I count: 8 captured tanks (T-72/T-80), 10 captured BMPs / BMDs (+2 extra but damaged), 13 BTRs, dozens of other vehicles and heavy weapons like BM-21 Grad MLRS

And that is just visually documented captures. That's basically enough to outfit an entire tank company. Russia's problems in the east are going to grow exponentially if they keep losing ground en masse like this.

[Virginiá]

Regarding renewed pressure for tanks and other western weapon deliveries long held up for various reasons (seeing this a lot today on Twitter too), I'm tempted to say now that Ukraine doesn't need a quick infusion of western tanks right now, they could instead benefit more from NATO facilitating the transfer of Poland and Slovakia's MiGs to Ukrainian control ASAP, which is something both these countries have already offered before, provided they are compensated in some way (or traded F-16s, in PL's case). I believe Slovakia is already doing this, or at least discussing it, but anti-radiation missiles from the US have made close air support missions possible and relevant again for Ukraine, and the AFU has been organized enough to move air defense along with their offensive. NATO should find it in themselves to get over the idea of 'Russian escalation' at this point, because if Russia is able and willing to escalate, they are going to do so in the near future, given the collapse of the Northeastern front.

Russia is leaving so many heavy weapons and ammunition behind that Ukraine has that need temporarily met. What they aren't finding in previously-occupied territory is air fields full of fighter jets and helicopters. Delivery of the IRIS-T and NASAMS air defense systems DE/US promised would be optimal as fast as possible as well, since Russia is liable to continue long range strikes given their deteriorating situation on the battlefield.

[Virginiá]

Are the moderators just going to leave up a post where a poster fantasises about choking and f****** a woman then?

I will have to reprimand the mods and myself for not waking up every hour, on the hour, to check for inappropriate posts made after midnight.

[Virginiá]

Putin really does not want to knock the hornets' nest, does he? 

Putin just wants to "win," except he seems to still be unable to reconcile the idea of winning with the reality that he doesn't have nearly enough personnel to actually do so, let alone weapons, body armor and vehicles for them. Nor the competency and leadership from his military, but that's a whole other discussion. Maybe before he thought he could outlast Ukraine and let economic realities and waning military aid force Ukraine to sue for peace, but now it's clear the aid isn't going to stop and Ukraine actually is very capable of launching offensives of their own and quickly retaking land, and knows this, which means they won't give up.

[Virginiá]

Most of the unguided rockets that could serve as cheaper, shorter-range alternatives to GMLRS - perhaps against artillery - have been or are soon to be retired, but it would take months to equip them with alternative warheads (the vast majority used to be, or still are, cluster munitions, and are either inert or extremely unlikely to be sent, respectively).

IIRC, I also read that the MARS launchers' FCS won't allow launch of submunition rockets.

Mostly I agree that cluster bombs are a scourge to be avoided, but there are some limited situations where they would be useful, such as attacking staging areas, air bases, or really any large base or formation. Nonetheless, I'd be very surprised if those found their way to Ukraine.

Those M26s Germany has would be better off being converted to GMLRS if they chose to use them for Ukraine. Ukraine has Grads (even more launchers and ammo after Kharkiv) for unguided area targeting. Using M270s or HIMARS for that would be risky and not terribly useful, especially since M26s don't have the same range or accuracy as M30s and M31s.

[Virginiá]

So I just heard a rumour that the Russians are storing ammunition at a nuclear plant. That true?

They are storing weapons, vehicles, etc at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, and using it as cover to launch attacks on Ukrainian positions. They also seem to have shelled the plant itself in an absurd effort to try and convince everyone the Ukrainians are actually the ones risking a catastrophic accident, at one point going so far as to say to an IAEA inspector that the reason a shell appeared to have landed with a trajectory from occupied territory was because it was some special NATO round that stops and makes a 180° turn mid-air. Since then, the plant, still under Russian control, has been slowly disconnected from the Ukrainian grid and is being shut down.

[Virginiá]

Russia continues hitting Karachunivske dam with missiles to flood the Inhulets in an attempt to halt Ukrainian advance and re-supply of Kherson front

https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1570127675880271873

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1570718125112586240

[Virginiá]

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

The problem for the Russians is that these threats are going to lose some of their bite by the end of the year. Assuming there aren't any significant delays, Ukraine will have at least 2 NASAMS air defense systems, which can cover 150km each, within the next 2 months, and at least 2 IRIS-T air defense systems, which can cover roughly the same amount, if not more. 2023 will also see a rollout of even more systems as early as Spring.

Russia is going to find it very difficult to indiscriminately bomb critical infrastructure and major cities after that, assuming Ukraine places these systems strategically.

[Virginiá]

NASAMS is not reported to have a dedicated anti-ballistic missile capability (it is primarily meant to deal with aircraft and secondarily with cruise missiles) and IRIS-T seems unlikely to, either. Like Ukraine's Buk-M1 and old S-300P/S systems, they can probably do this but to a limited extent.

Ukraine is a massive country and it would take years of production for new-build systems to cover it. Medium-range NASAMS and IRIS-T are unlikely to be as immediately impactful as HIMARS/M270 - what they are useful for is halting or reversing the attrition of pre-existing Ukrainian air defences, especially the medium-range ones. The Ukrainian air defence network, pre-war, was one of the most extensive in Europe (not counting the use of fighter jets as air defence, of course). Its S-300Vs will remain most useful for intercepting ballistic missiles.

It doesn't need to cover everything, just a large portion of the targets Russia will want to hit. And as far as cruise missiles go, you don't need to blanket every square inch of the country with AD. Just where you expect the missile to come from. Each system can cover a fairly broad area as well, so once most of the NASAMS systems and the IRIS-T systems are in place (not just the 2 NASAMS and 2-3 IRIS-T systems expected by Dec/Jan), Ukraine could have significant coverage over population centers and critical infrastructure, at least if you consider that moving these systems in will free up Ukraine's existing AD to be re-positioned. Even just the 3 total systems expected within the next 60 days is going to notably complicate Russia's options in parts of the country.

Ukraine isn't going to be able to shoot down everything, and I don't think anyone ever expected that. It's just supposed to reduce the total physical damage done and change the cost/benefit ratio for Russia, where they will have to decide whether launching tens of millions of dollars of missiles at a single target is worth the money and the limited supply of missiles when there is no guarantee they will actually hit their target.