Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 878138 times)
Storr
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« Reply #50 on: February 24, 2022, 02:29:46 AM »
« edited: February 24, 2022, 02:33:54 AM by Storr »
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on February 24, 2022, 02:14:58 AM



I agree, Russia wants a quick victory. The longer an invasion takes: the more NATO weapons/intelligence/technology flow east into Ukraine, the more civilian suffering is shared around the World, the more international opinion will turn against Russia, the more Ukrainian resistance will stiffen, the more Russian casualties will come home in coffins, the more the war will harm the Russian economy, the more likely of Russian public opinion turns against the war and current government.

You don't see governments promoting long protracted war for a reason.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #51 on: February 24, 2022, 02:40:51 AM »
Looks like the USAF is refueling somebody's planes near the Ukrainian border.

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #52 on: February 24, 2022, 03:18:19 AM »
Of course, take this report with a healthy dose of skepticism:

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #53 on: February 24, 2022, 03:21:09 AM »
Ummmm....does anyone want to tell them?
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: February 24, 2022, 04:07:50 AM »
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: February 24, 2022, 04:20:44 AM »
Quote from: Hnv1 on February 24, 2022, 04:16:01 AM
Why are the Ukrainians so badly spread at the northern border? no contact with Russian columns moving in
From Poland east to Luhansk, Ukraine's northern border with Belarus and Russia is 1,200 kilometers. That's nearly impossible to defend everywhere when you're also facing attack from the east and south as well.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: February 24, 2022, 04:33:16 AM »


If this is in Genichesk it means Russians have already crossed the bridge (unopposed?) that separates this part of Ukraine from Crimea. Tors aren't amphibious.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: February 24, 2022, 04:54:16 AM »
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Storr
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« Reply #58 on: February 24, 2022, 10:06:18 AM »
Quote from: Filuwaúrdjan on February 24, 2022, 09:56:29 AM
I would be very careful about believing everything you see online. There are a lot of false claims flying around and it is still very early: troop movements, even these days, are a lot slower than people think.
The fact there hasn't been reports of major oblast administrative center cities being occupied (especially Kharkiv which is 30 km from the Russian border) is a good sign, at least.
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Storr
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« Reply #59 on: February 24, 2022, 10:13:04 AM »
« Edited: February 24, 2022, 10:16:46 AM by Storr »
The key battle going on currently would seem to be the Russian airborne assault at Gostomel airport.

edit for Ukranian MOD tweet:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #60 on: February 24, 2022, 05:22:21 PM »
A thought I had at work: forget sanctions, how about a full embargo on trade with Russia?                  I know Europe won't entertain this idea in the slightest. But when it comes to the US, Russia's imports from the US are around 5% of total imports. Meanwhile the US has less than 1% of its imports come from the motherland. An American embargo on Russia would be easy for the US to weather, not so much for Russia.
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Storr
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« Reply #61 on: February 24, 2022, 05:25:39 PM »
Quote from: Statilius the Epicurean on February 24, 2022, 05:07:47 PM

Ballsy move by the Russians to not bother rolling up Kherson and pushing onto Odessa ASAP. Ukraine apparently trying to counterattack their rapid advance on the flanks.
Obviously huge grain of salt and whatnot:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: February 24, 2022, 05:36:59 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2022, 05:41:30 PM by Storr »
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on February 24, 2022, 05:29:26 PM
Ukraine seems so far to be putting up surprisingly strong resistance, and the Russian military is not performing impressively. Hats off to the brave defenders of Ukraine. Those of us in other countries should urge our governments to do everything we can to support them in defending themselves from unprovoked aggression.
Indeed, Kharkiv hasn't fallen (only 30 km from the border), Sumy may have or is still seeing fighting Huh, and the airborne attack at Homostel seems to have probably been a failure for the Russians. The most worrying area for Ukraine at the moment seems to be in the South. Russia has already claimed it has reopened the North Crimean Canal. So, if this report is correct it is good news:
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: February 24, 2022, 06:00:09 PM »
Checking up on flightradar24.com , there are now 4 USAF KC-135 Stratotankers circling near the Ukrainian border. All few out of US bases in Germany. Two are over southeastern Poland (above Tarnow) and two are over Northern Romania. There were only two last night when I went to bed (01:00-02:00 Eastern). I have no idea if they're actually refueling anything up there or are a show of force.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: February 24, 2022, 06:09:46 PM »
Quote from: Coldstream on February 24, 2022, 06:02:37 PM
The Ukrainians are going to bleed the Russians until they leave, and they are going to do so with (at least) the funding and diplomatic support of the Western World. The Russian army of 2021 isn’t the Red Army of 1941-45, bound together by ideology and fear of Nazi extermination, it’s cold and hungry and being sent to die in a foreign country for a madman’s vanity. The Russians may conquer Ukraine, but they will never hold it.
The the Russians have already sent in half of their forces at the border and they haven't even taken any major cities yet?
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #65 on: February 24, 2022, 06:45:04 PM »
Quote from: Frodo on February 24, 2022, 06:24:12 PM
if Kiev does eventually fall, the legitimate Ukrainian government should make Lviv its new capital, and fight on from there.  
If even Lviv falls, there's Mukachevo which is separated from the rest of the country by the Carpathian Mountains. All non-mountainous routes to reach the region are from friendly NATO allies to the west and south. If the Russians continue struggle this much to advance across flat territory, I don't see how they'll be able to make it across the entire width of a mountain range.
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Storr
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« Reply #66 on: February 24, 2022, 06:58:07 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2022, 07:02:11 PM by Storr »
Quote from: Cody 🇺🇲🇺🇦 on February 24, 2022, 06:46:21 PM
Quote from: Badger on February 24, 2022, 05:59:35 PM
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on February 24, 2022, 05:49:13 PM
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on February 24, 2022, 05:45:22 PM
Quote from: Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil on February 24, 2022, 05:37:34 PM
We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

No. Soldiers fight for their buddies in the unit and their lives. Plus rigorous training to act as indeed. Political unpopularity won't affect morale after significant time, not 24 hours in.

Not to mention I question how unpopular the war really is. The demonstrations are relatively sparse, and the average Russian, happily brainwashed by uncontridicted state media, probably tends to share the nationalist "Russia is surrounded by enemies and must attack in self defense" mentality.

Yeah, this. Everything we're seeing from news anchors who are saying "I talked to all my friends in Moscow and none of them support the war" or even "I walked around Moscow and everyone I talked to said they are against it", suffers from a biased sample. It's like going around diplomatic row on DC, asking people if they like Trump, and generalizing to the whole country based on that.
I saw a Euronews report this morning from Rostov and the reporter said they couldn't find a single person who disagreed with the official line that war is necessary to defend the country.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #67 on: February 24, 2022, 08:09:05 PM »
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #68 on: February 24, 2022, 08:31:58 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2022, 08:35:03 PM by Storr »
My immediate thought: "Jesus, they look so young."

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #69 on: February 24, 2022, 09:00:55 PM »
« Edited: February 24, 2022, 09:05:47 PM by Storr »
I have to agree with this. Russia's plan feels rushed and improvised. It seems like it was assumed Ukrainians would just give up because well....we're Russia. Putin even encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms in his declaration of war speech. Today, Russian officials also floated terms the Ukrainians would need to accept in exchange for a ceasefire. Why would Ukraine want a ceasefire when they haven't faced any kind of defeat yet?  
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #70 on: February 24, 2022, 09:22:58 PM »
Quote from: STAND WITH UKRAINE on February 24, 2022, 09:19:30 PM
Anyways I heard some unconfirmed talk of a major Russian breakthrough near Sumy, does anyone know anything about this?
I saw this on twitter, but you know twitter.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #71 on: February 24, 2022, 09:45:21 PM »


Something was intercepted over Kyiv.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #72 on: February 24, 2022, 10:10:24 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on February 24, 2022, 09:58:10 PM

Winter War 2?

I'm also seeing anecdotal reports that young Russian soldiers in particular are laying down their arms in decent numbers, saying they don't want to kill or die for Putin.

No morale, no economy, international pariah, military humiliations, unrest at home? If it all goes just right this may backfire way worse than Putin could ever have imagined. Fingers crossed...
I wouldn't put too much stock in this being Winter War 2 . Simply, Russia has the capability to overpower Ukraine (just as it did in Finland). It's just a matter of getting the manpower to Ukraine (Russia is huge after all) and making the decision on just how "all in" the Russian military will go. For example, evidently Russia has not used much of its communication disruption capabilities so far (for whatever reason). What we have seen so far could also simply be the first wave of Russian forces. But at least Ukraine is not simply throwing in the towel, which I feel Putin had hoped.
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Storr
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #73 on: February 24, 2022, 10:28:12 PM »
Quote from: Splash on February 24, 2022, 10:22:45 PM
After seeing this clip, there's no doubt it was an aircraft.

<tweet snip>
Unfortunately it crashed into an apartment block.

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Storr
Junior Chimp
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Moldova, Republic of


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« Reply #74 on: February 25, 2022, 04:11:06 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2022, 04:17:04 AM by Storr »
Giant Russian column on the road to Kherson:



Subtle, my dudes, subtle:

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