Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Ukraine was already experiencing significant demographic decline. In 1992 it's population peaked at 52 million. 30 years later it was down to 40-43 million (before the war), give or take Crimea and then occupied Luhansk/Donetsk.

Now it's catastrophic as millions have fled to Europe and Russia, it's young men are being killed on the frontlines due to numerous waves of mobilization.

[Torie]

Let's see what happens to Ukraine's demographic future after Putin is defeated and defenestrated. Be patient. But yeah, it is a reminder of the need to focus on effecting Putin's future with the maximum dispatch practicable.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/austria-zelensky-russia-ukraine-war-b2311579.html

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

They are more normally described as the FPO. And I doubt if it will worry Zelensky much.

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/austria-zelensky-russia-ukraine-war-b2311579.html

"Moment Austria’s pro-Russia lawmakers walk out of Zelensky’s speech to parliament"

Austria's PFO gives Zelensky the walk out treatment

They are more normally described as the FPO. And I doubt if it will worry Zelensky much.

Oops, typo by me.  I do think it is meaningful that the party in Austria that is currently polling as the largest party right now is not afraid of blowback in terms of public support by doing this.  I suspect this time last year they would be too intimidated to do this.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-hundreds-t90m-received-surge-production

Russian Army Has Received Hundreds of T-90M Tanks Under Surged Production - Reports

The Russian Army has reportedly recently several hundred T-90M tanks ready for frontline operations, according to an anonymous source cited by state media outlet Sputnik, with large numbers of new T-72B3M tanks having also been delivered. The announcement closely follows indications by Deputy Chairman Russian Security Council former president Dmitry Medvedev in the penultimate week of March that 1500 of the vehicles would be produced over the next year. "We will make 1,500 tanks alone this year. You can calculate how much our enemy will get, even according to the most optimistic calculations.”

As by far the most capable tank in Russian service, the T-90M completed testing in February 2020 and joined the Army in April that year, but was acquired on a very limited scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian War in February. Major losses among older tank classes, and strong demonstration of the new model’s advantages, were key factors spurring a production surge.

One of the T-90M’s most notable advantages over older tanks is its integration of the 2A46M-5 gun and Kalina fire control system, which allow it to deploy the wide range specialised munitions some of which began to be seen in Ukraine in early 2023. The new tank also integrates a communication and command suite and digital communications systems significantly ahead of those of other operational Russian tanks. Its survivability benefits from the integration of the Afghanit active protection system and Relikt explosive reactive armour as well as isolation of munitions from the remainder of the vehicle internally, the benefits of which have already been seen in Ukraine..."

The Russian Army has received multiple batches of T-90Ms of unknown size since its forces began major operations in Ukraine in February 2022, with the vehicles beginning to be seen in the theatre in late April that year. Russia already comfortably outproduced all other tank manufacturers in the world combined with its T-90 output, although the large majority of these previously went to foreign clients most notably India and Algeria. The industry’s massive surplus capacity inherited from the Soviet era is expected to be key to facilitating production on a much larger scale not seen since 1991 to meet the demands of ongoing war in Ukraine and standoff with NATO. Whether production for export will continue to supplement the 1500 tanks produced for domestic use in the next year remains uncertain, with Russia’s dominant position in global markets for armour having been hard won and remaining highly prized.

Yeah, totally bro. 1500 T-90M. Thousands more to come. Pay no attention to the trainloads of T-54s coming out of storage in Siberia, I'm sure they're bringing those rust traps out of retirement because they have so many modern, functional tanks.

With reliable sources like Russian state media and even Dmitry Medvedev himself, I'll be taking this report very seriously.

If "1500 Black Tanks of Putin" includes everything from new production tanks to ancient T-54s being taken out of storage, then it's a plausible figure. It's entirely possible that in the Internet game of telephone, "1500 tanks put in service" somehow became "1500 tanks produced", which in turn became "1500 T-90Ms produced"

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1641846801606008833
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1641847473382490141

[Woody]

Ukrainians have no positions near the Bakhmutka river anymore. Wagner has a beachhead & can assault properly from the east:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1641856746007191564

[Woody]

Wagner raises flag at the heart of Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1641856051224903690?cxt=HHwWlICwmabYhcktAAA...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1641851173408735240?s=20

[oldtimer]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1641833674910887937?cxt=HHwWgsCz1enB-8gtA...

[jaichind]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

[Storr]

Anti-tank gun introduced in 1961:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641697283510091776?s=20

[oldtimer]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Or as you would put it "russia is winning, just in the other direction" ?

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.

The one where they overestimated the strength of the Russian invasion force and predicted that Ukraine would collapse quickly (and if you don’t believe me you can search “US intelligence failure Ukraine” and read more about it). I wouldn’t consider the fact that they correctly predicted that there would be a Russian invasion to obviate the fact that they seemed to lack understanding of Russian strategy, the quality of the invasion force and, most bizarrely, the strength of Ukrainian resistance (given that the US has, you know, been cooperating closely with the Ukrainian military for years). That seems more relevant for assessing their competence in analysing the state of the Russian forces now than the fact that they successfully predicted that an invasion force would… invade.

[Woody]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Simple answer, they're not. Ukraine has had waves of mobilization, and yet they're still barely holding the line (witch cracks here and there) after Russia started with one wave of mobilization.

[oldtimer]

Anti-tank gun introduced in 1961:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641697283510091776?s=20

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised with BT-7 from the 1930's making a comeback.

Since tanks last so little in action before getting blown up, everyone needs the fastest cheapest thing available that can be mass produced, and doesn't trigger anti-tank mines from it's weight.

[oldtimer]

UN data on Ukrainian demographics for 2021 and 2023

Looks like the 20-35 age group have seen a steep decline.  For the males, it is battle deaths and immigration (although the immigration part must be limited due to Ukraine laws against able-bodied men from leaving) and for females, it must be all immigration.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsfKVRSXoAAxkP5?format=jpg&name=small

What was that one poster here wrote: "jairchild posts some meaningless statistic" ?

How do they get that number if no one is counting ?

And if those numbers where true the Ukrainian army would have already collapsed from lack of manpower, instead of being on the verge of victory.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine

Wikipedia has a similar chart for 2023 population pyramid

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Simple answer, they're not. Ukraine has had waves of mobilization, and yet they're still barely holding the line (witch cracks here and there) after Russia started with one wave of mobilization.

I speak frequent bullcr@p (pardon my expression), so allow me to translate your official P.R. statement:

It's complex, but they are. Russia had a mobilization, and yet Russia is still barely holding the line (which cracks here and there) after Ukraine started to mobilize.

[jaichind]

The statistics about manpower are only of the few that really matter in a war.
However the numbers don't agree with the battlefield, so someone is making them up.

If it was correct then why is Russia losing instead ?

Or as you would put it "russia is winning, just in the other direction" ?

I did not mean to infer anything about winning or losing other than  "It seems Ukraine either has a lot of manpower losses on the battlefield or have a lot of leakage in young men leaving the country"

Given the scale of fighting (several hundred K on both sides) while the Ukraine population pyramid does not look good given men in the 30s and 40s are able also able to fight on the front I do not foresee these numbers implying that Ukraine is running out of men or losing the war.

[Cassius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/wgdunlop/status/1641145262209892614
https://mobile.twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1641211884194897920

bawhat?  But General Woody has been suggesting Ukraine leave for months and obviously he knows more than DoD intelligence.

Given the poor track record of US intelligence (right up to and including massive failures in both Afghanistan and Ukraine within the last two years) down the decades he probably does.

What failure would that be in Ukraine?

US Intelligence said exactly what was going to happen happened, but Euros weren’t listening because lol Iraq.

The one where they overestimated the strength of the Russian invasion force and predicted that Ukraine would collapse quickly (and if you don’t believe me you can search “US intelligence failure Ukraine” and read more about it). I wouldn’t consider the fact that they correctly predicted that there would be a Russian invasion to obviate the fact that they seemed to lack understanding of Russian strategy, the quality of the invasion force and, most bizarrely, the strength of Ukrainian resistance (given that the US has, you know, been cooperating closely with the Ukrainian military for years). That seems more relevant for assessing their competence in analysing the state of the Russian forces now than the fact that they successfully predicted that an invasion force would… invade.

It’s a good meme, but “proper army” or no, taking a large, dense, defended urban area isn’t something that can realistically be done in three days. The only way you’d get that scenario is by assuming one side would collapse (which was apparently the view of most US intelligence sources on the Ukrainian military).

[Hindsight was 2020]

We’re entering April, Bakmut still hasn’t fallen, most on the ground assessments is it actually won’t fall after all, Russia has made practically no changes to the line since last year yet Woodbury says Ukraine is “barley holding the line”? 🙄

[Virginiá]

All but 500 million of this package is USAI funding, so those weapons will come from industry and thus will arrive on the battlefield down the road. This continues the trend of increased USAI funding to keep Ukraine supplied long-term, and possibly also suggesting the US is nearing the limits of what it can give from its own stocks with some types of weapons (a couple notable systems being Javelin and Stinger missiles)

https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1641898530041200640

[The Dowager Mod]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

[jaichind]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

Would not that logic also apply to sending Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine ?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I'm no military expert, but it seems to me if you are pulling 40 year old tanks out of storage you are not winning.

Would not that logic also apply to sending Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine ?

It might if Germany (or whoever else was sending some Leopard 1's) were at at war with Russia.

So, if Germany were at war with Russia, and all their Leopard 2's had been destroyed and they were forced to rely on pulling out old Leopard 1's, yes, that would be a sign that Germany might be losing.

But that's not what's happening here, is it?