Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GoTfan]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176?s=20&t=2kHJbe6odA-...

Putin will blow everyone up before he does that. They have to know that.

[HillGoose]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176?s=20&t=2kHJbe6odA-...

Putin will blow everyone up before he does that. They have to know that.

so should the world just pussy out and stop supporting Ukraine because it might hurt some demonic trillionaire prick's feelings?

[GoTfan]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176?s=20&t=2kHJbe6odA-...

Putin will blow everyone up before he does that. They have to know that.

so should the world just pussy out and stop supporting Ukraine because it might hurt some demonic trillionaire prick's feelings?

As much as you might want to, you can't just butterfly away Russia's nuclear arsenal.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1527607537041801216

Ukraine hit a Russian supply convoy of at least 10-12 trucks just outside of Pompasna

Attrite Attrite Attrite

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1527607537041801216

Ukraine hit a Russian supply convoy of at least 10-12 trucks just outside of Pompasna

Attrite Attrite Attrite

Snip, snip, snip, go the dermatologist's scissors on the skin-tag-shaped Russian salient there. Inshallah.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225951775506433https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527225956376657921

Things like this is what makes us look weak.

God dammit Joe

[GeneralMacArthur]

What's up with the ruble spiking up?

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1527806782554443776

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.6%        +2.6%       +2.7%      +3.7%       +4.4%         +1.9%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +19.8%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.6%

Economic projections for 2022 are getting worse across the board due to the impact of the war.
 PRC's GDP cut has to do with COVID-19 lockdowns and not fallout from the war with their projected CPI staying the same as the impact of the deflationary impact of the lockdown counteracted the imported inflationary impact.  Russia's inflation situation actually getting better.  The latest Russia MoM CPI seems to imply a long-term run rate of more like 7%-9%.  Of course, USA's lastest MoM CPI seems to imply a long-term run rate of 4%-5% so in many ways the inflationary surge has peaked from the shocks of March-April.  

The impact on Japan has been surprisingly high while the impact on the UK has not been as bad as many would have expected.  Eurozone GDP growth hit hard. Russia's GDP situation continues to get worse even as the inflation situation there is getting a bit better.

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

Why is Transcarpathia like that?

That and wouldn't the decisive Ukrainian victory include Crimea? I do think that retaking the pre-February 24 occupied Donbas is easier than taking Crimea, but if we are talking about a decisive victory, Crimea would be on the table. Other than that, the graphic makes sense. However, at this point, I would say that the split in half, decisive Russian victory is not possible and the landlocked Russian victory is extremely unlikely. All the others are all very possible.

Russia, deep down, cares about Crimea much more than the Donbass (and in this I mean the average "man in the street" as well as the country's elites) Even if they basically end up losing this war, there is a good chance they end up being offered some sort of concession there as a face saver.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527944356518322176
Ukraine has 700k in the field now according to Zelensky and added if the war continues into the fall they will hit a mil.

[jaichind]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-only-diplomacy-can-end-conflict-with-russia/

"Zelensky: Only diplomacy can end conflict with Russia"

Good.  Hopefully, talks resume ASAP to end this war.

[Storr]

Sure, Jan.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1527979338695680000?s=20&t=wwP-IWL0...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Sure, Jan.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1527979338695680000?s=20&t=wwP-IWL0...

Cope, Ritachka.

[DINGO Joe]

So this one is really fun.

Yesterday the Russian had a video of star "journalist" Sasha Kots showing the powerful and rare 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled heavy mortar (previously seen at Astoval) now firing from a position in what will turn out to be Rubizine.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1527752480045551617

Guess what the Ukrainians were able to take out today

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1528046140847198210

Good work Sasha!

Should be noted that maps posted here show that the Russians are in control of Rubizine but obviously control doesn't mean what it sounds like.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Sure, Jan.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1527979338695680000?s=20&t=wwP-IWL0...

Cope, Ritachka.

It’s not just copium, it’s pro-mobilisation rhetoric.

[Storr]

Possible established Ukrainian bridgehead found using satellite imagery on the eastern side of the Siverskyi Donets River, in the Izyum area. Further downstream, the river turns eastward before reaching the point of the infamous failed Russian crossing. Ukraine announced an offensive in the Izyum area last week, but little has been heard about it since. This could be evidence of said offensive achieving progress.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1527959253268430850?s=20&t=-lNKBD-ajpkHgY...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1527959259002155010?s=20&t=-lNKBD-ajpkHgY...

[Woody]

Russia has now destroyed the bridge between Lysychansk and Sieverodonetsk. Likely trying to stop a possible withdrawal/divide the defenders when they plan to siege the cities from both sides:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1528054495871115264

[Storr]

An interesting article from the Ukrainian perspective. Neither side really has any incentive to seek a ceasefire at the moment: Putin doesn't want to look like a loser. Ukraine doesn't want to give Russia time to regroup or rebuild.

"The Kyiv Independent: So why is this idea of “ceasefire at any price” dangerous?

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: First, Putin can make use of it to just recover. They would be just recovering and preparing for a new stage of the war..."

"The Kyiv Independent: Is Ukraine’s ultimate goal to take all the territories back, including Donbas and Crimea?

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Our country has carefully explained that. (The U.S. administration) understands that our ultimate goal is to reinstate control of all territories as of 1991, hold those responsible for war crimes accountable, and get reparations. But the first goal is to kick Russians back to where they were before Feb. 24. The U.S. administration sees and understands this as well.

There’s a window of opportunity now as Russia is in its weakest condition in its history. We need to take this chance and not miss it..."


https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1528099937321467905?s=20&t=PHwQ8-YM...

[jaichind]

Edit: additionally, if Russia "wins" land by even more barbaric and dangerous tactics (i.e. nukes), it loses even more internationally. China, for instance, would not want Russia to suggest to Taiwan etc. that they must develop their own nuclear programs or get nuked, but this is what nuking Ukraine would do.

That is already explicitly part of the PRC's red line on an all-out assault on ROC.   The PRC has been very public, clear, and explicit that ROC getting nuclear weapons or making consituatonal changes to the ROC Constitution that cuts territorial ties to Mainland China would automatically mean an all-out PLA assault on ROC.  

There was actually a secret ROC nuclear weapons program that got started in 1967 under Chiang Kai-Shek.  It was so secret that when ROC Prez Chiang Ching-Kuo's health deteriorated in the mid-1980s his stepmother Madame Chiang Kai-Shek stepped in as the head of an alternative chain of command to help move this nuclear weapon program along to make sure most of the military and political leadership is kept in the dark about it.   Had it progressed I think ROC would have had nuclear weapons by the early 1990s.  In 1987 this program was discovered by the CIA which pressured the ROC to terminate the program for fear that the PRC will find out soon and launch an all-out assault on ROC.  There was talk in the KMT administration in the 1990s of restarting it but it was decided that it was KMT policy to prioritize negotiations with CCP as the long-term solution to PRC-ROC problems.  A core DPP value is anti-nuclear power and DPP administrations have done everything to remove nuclear material from ROC including shutting down all nuclear power plants.  As a result, we can safely assume that a DPP or KMT administration would not have anything to do with nuclear weapons. 

PRC-ROC relation is a flashpoint for conflict but ROC getting nuclear weapons can be safely ruled out as a source of open conflict.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In a new series of counter-sanctions against the West, the Russian government has banned almost 1,000 Americans from entering the country. The list includes actor Morgan Freeman as well as the corpses of late senators John McCain and Orrin Hatch. Donald Trump was again exempted from the sanctions though.


https://mobile.twitter.com/axios/status/1528112776824111105

[Storr]

This was at a concert for the St. Petersburg based punk pop rock band Kis-Kis. The band's drummer, Alina Olesheva, has been publicly anti-war on her twitter account.

There have been previous reports of Russian police raiding and shutting down rock concerts. Maybe this one was simply too large to try shutting down?

Olesheva's twitter: https://twitter.com/Etopizdetc

https://twitter.com/MicheleBerdy/status/1528084525057974272?s=20&t=VL7hP3rfl...

[GoTfan]

In a new series of counter-sanctions against the West, the Russian government has banned almost 1,000 Americans from entering the country. The list includes actor Morgan Freeman as well as the corpses of late senators John McCain and Orrin Hatch. Donald Trump was again exempted from the sanctions though.


https://mobile.twitter.com/axios/status/1528112776824111105

Losing so badly that you need to literally ban corpses from entering you country.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527944356518322176
Ukraine has 700k in the field now according to Zelensky and added if the war continues into the fall they will hit a mil.

The Russian army is around 900 thousand. People assume that 900 thousand Russian soldiers are invading Ukraine, but is only 200 thousand. Ukraine has the numerical advantage, not Russia.

[rc18]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527944356518322176
Ukraine has 700k in the field now according to Zelensky and added if the war continues into the fall they will hit a mil.

The Russian army is around 900 thousand. People assume that 900 thousand Russian soldiers are invading Ukraine, but is only 200 thousand. Ukraine has the numerical advantage, not Russia.

Well, that is what the Russians claim. The severely understaffed battalions being sent to Ukraine suggest in reality this figure is inflated. In terms of Battalion Tactical Groups, what is in Ukraine is a significant chunk of their army.