Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

Oh wow I didn’t know Big Abraham writes for the NYT?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Consider the plight of the Campists and “realists”. If Ukraine doesn’t take back its territory, they will have to talk about spheres of influence and draw false equivalencies. This is surely less comfortable than decrying “Western colonialism” in the unlikely event that Ukraine takes back its land. For their sake, Russia should withdraw on humanitarian grounds.

[Torie]

Oh, I can see a scenario where Ukraine gives up some territory in exchange for joining NATO or defense guarantees where Russia remains blacklisted and shunned, while Europe weans itself off of Russia for anything Russia could use to coerce it. So Russia getting more real estate will still be very costly to it, and will never be recognized, and thus by no means rewarded.

That said, I am not sure the NYT is as clairvoyant about what the future holds militarily or otherwise as it may think it is.

[pppolitics]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

[Virginiá]

https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1527606560041705473

After three months of thoughtful consideration, dilligently weighing all the pros against the cons, Gerhard Schröder has decided to quit his job at Rosneft.

What a brave, selfless hero!

[DaleCooper]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

Many countries (including Ukraine) are going to pursue nuclear programs. It's the only way to deter foreign invasions at this point.

[Person Man]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

Many countries (including Ukraine) are going to pursue nuclear programs. It's the only way to deter foreign invasions at this point.

Imagine a world with several dozen countries with at least 50 nuclear weapons.

[DaleCooper]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

Many countries (including Ukraine) are going to pursue nuclear programs. It's the only way to deter foreign invasions at this point.

Imagine a world with several dozen countries with at least 50 nuclear weapons.

It's disturbing but it's the only deterrent so we can probably expect it to happen at some point or another.

[Person Man]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

Many countries (including Ukraine) are going to pursue nuclear programs. It's the only way to deter foreign invasions at this point.

Imagine a world with several dozen countries with at least 50 nuclear weapons.

It's disturbing but it's the only deterrent so we can probably expect it to happen at some point or another.

I mean, it could work or if it doesn't just once, we can rest assured that it will not happen again in a 100 years. A small nuclear war might be the thing that cures the crazies.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

Many countries (including Ukraine) are going to pursue nuclear programs. It's the only way to deter foreign invasions at this point.

I fear you’re right, but multilateral defence agreements have credibility as long as their member states aren’t attacked (read: NATO, the EU, CSTO), and they - along with a Ukrainian “victory” - might be able to stop proliferation before any years-long nuclear programs culminate.

[Person Man]

Not only should Ukraine take back all of its territories, but the US should also install nukes all over Ukraine.

Giving Ukraine better security guarantees can provide the same benefits without invoking the wild risks that nukes would in a country that will likely be near the edge of conflict for some years after the war ends.

Besides, failing to live up the guarantees made to Ukraine that precipitated its original denuclearisation means there is a decent chance Ukraine pursues its own nuclear program in due course.

Many countries (including Ukraine) are going to pursue nuclear programs. It's the only way to deter foreign invasions at this point.

I fear you’re right, but multilateral defence agreements have credibility as long as their member states aren’t attacked (read: NATO, the EU, CSTO), and they - along with a Ukrainian “victory” - might be able to stop proliferation before any years-long nuclear programs culminate.

The war probably determines the next 40 years or even longer. A lot of butterflies are flapping their wings.

[2952-0-0]

RUB now has risen to 59.  RUB is now the strongest currency of 2022.  Part of this is because Russian imports from the EU have collapsed while its energy/food exports in USD/EUR terms have risen due to the rise in world energy/food prices but it is also about the Russian Central Bank acting in a way to prop up RUB.  I am not sure what is the point of pushing up RUB at this point.  My sense is Putin wants to deter the Russian upper class from shifting their asset abroad with the risk that the RUB will RISE after they convert their wealth from RUB to USD.  The problem with this strategy is that it is very short-sighted.  At some stage, RUB cannot go higher anymore and have to grow down, and then that is the point when the Russian upper class will try to shift their wealth making the fall of the RUB more difficult to control.  Putin is better off taking his thumb off the scale and allowing market forces to push RUB back down to 80-90 or something like that which will be much more sustainable for the Russian Central Bank to them defend.

The RUB rate is completely artificial, and bears no reality to prices on the street. It's as meaningful as the Soviets declaring the Ruble to be stronger than the US Dollar. Putin could announce one RUB to be worth $100 USD tomorrow, and it will be just as meaningful.

While it's true that the fall in imports of western consumer goods and high oil prices lead to real strength in the RUB, its official rate doesn't reflect reality, since non-state actors aren't free to buy and sell at that rate.

Consumer prices within Russia have not fallen back to pre-war levels. They remain at levels that imply an exchange rate that's still at record lows.

Foreign currency simply isn't available at the official rate, and Russians are going to the black market, just like in the old days.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/in-ussr-flashback-russians-are-hunting-for-black-market-dollars

While that’s allowed Putin to brag that the sanctions “Blitzkrieg” of the West has failed, ordinary Russians can’t take advantage of the currency’s strength. Oil flows and capital controls have warped the official rate, and the ruble is around 20% weaker at exchange points and on the black market -- reminding many Russians of its Soviet predecessor.

“It’s like trying to show the Soviet Union is beating America by waving a copy of the Izvestia newspaper in someone’s face in 1982 and saying: ‘Look, the dollar is worth only 64 kopecks!”’ said Sergey Khestanov, a Moscow-based professor of finance and banking and advisor to the chief of executive of the Otkritie brokerage. “I’d agree -- if anyone could actually buy a dollar for 64 kopecks.”

[The Dowager Mod]

  lol
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1527732387748233218

[President Johnson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1527606560041705473


After three months of thoughtful consideration, dilligently weighing all the pros against the cons, Gerhard Schröder has decided to quit his job at Rosneft.

Too little, too late.

Should just have kept the job and take Russian citizenship, Gas Gerd!

[Logical]

The number of prisoners recorded by Russia matches Ukraine's own accounts so it's probably true. The siege of Mariupol is over.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1527723981478014976

[Storr]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176?s=20&t=2kHJbe6odA-...

[Storr]

Based

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1527676191007813636?s=20&t=2kHJbe...

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/19/un-hopes-to-restore-ukraine-grain-exports-amid-global-food-crisis

"UN hopes to restore Ukraine grain exports amid global food crisis"

I can already see what is next demand from Putin:  "Grain for RUB"

[Logical]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176

https://archive.is/i88l1
This interview with the Ukrainian intelligence chief is far more illuminating. He shares what he believes Ukraine needs to win, outlines their war goals and reveals many interesting tidbits about Russian capabilities.

[jaichind]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

[Logical]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

Why is Transcarpathia like that?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

Somewhat, but expectations have shifted since the start of the war in a way that obscures the broader picture which will re-emerge once the conflict has finished. I would argue a decisive Russian victory would have included Kyiv at the outset of this war, leaving (at most) a western rump state around Lviv and Transcarpathia.

The pyrrhic categories should be wider for both sides. No amount of retaken land is going to bring back the dead Ukrainians or reverse the traumas visited upon the living, although a favourable outcome will provide a better basis for a long, slow and uncertain recovery which will require massive investment. Similarly, even the "landlocked" scenario would leave the war in Ukraine as unfinished business in the long term, and the gains against Ukraine wouldn't justify the losses against them and with the global community. In its harkening back to the empire of old, Russia has squandered young men as it once did - but they are now one of its most precious resources, and plenty of those who aren't dying are simply leaving.

The most likely scenario at this point, especially if it continues as a war of attrition, is that both parties lose. America (although not Europe) "wins", as do a sh**tload of arms dealers - and China, if it plays its cards right, gets a lot more power over Russia.

Edit: additionally, if Russia "wins" land by even more barbaric and dangerous tactics (i.e. nukes), it loses even more internationally. China, for instance, would not want Russia to suggest to Taiwan etc. that they must develop their own nuclear programs or get nuked, but this is what nuking Ukraine would do.

[AndyHogan14]

Seems like a fair win/lose categorization map

Why is Transcarpathia like that?

That and wouldn't the decisive Ukrainian victory include Crimea? I do think that retaking the pre-February 24 occupied Donbas is easier than taking Crimea, but if we are talking about a decisive victory, Crimea would be on the table. Other than that, the graphic makes sense. However, at this point, I would say that the split in half, decisive Russian victory is not possible and the landlocked Russian victory is extremely unlikely. All the others are all very possible.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Oh, I can see a scenario where Ukraine gives up some territory in exchange for joining NATO or defense guarantees where Russia remains blacklisted and shunned, while Europe weans itself off of Russia for anything Russia could use to coerce it. So Russia getting more real estate will still be very costly to it, and will never be recognized, and thus by no means rewarded.

That said, I am not sure the NYT is as clairvoyant about what the future holds militarily or otherwise as it may think it is.

Putin has already gotten away with an illegal aggressive war in 2014 against Ukraine. Ukraine has already lost the Crimea, parts of Luhansk and Donetsk before the war. If they give up any more territory in the peace treaty, Ukraine will become a rump state too weak to defend itself. Russia will invade again in 5-10 years.