Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

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By some miracle, there were no casualties from this. But so much for Russia making an effort to avoid citizen casualties, "brother peoples" and all that.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497471317452509187?s=20&t=o5pnqlFRmMqhkV...

[Storr]

Russian born (he now has dual Russian/American citizenship) National Hockey League star Alexander Ovetchkin, who's already one of the greatest of all time and has always publicly shown support for Putin said "Please, no more war" last night.

""Well, he's my president. But, how I said, I'm not in politics. I'm an athlete," Ochevkin replied. "How I said, hope everything's going to be done soon. It's a hard situation right now for both sides. Everything, like how I said, everything I hope is going to be end, and I'm not in control of situation.""

""Please, no more war," he urged. "Doesn't matter who's in the war. Russia. Ukraine. Different countries. I think we live in a world like we have to live in peace and a great world.""

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1497307285067997184?s=20&t=joCt93LwSCDM...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/sport/ovechkin-nhl-war/index.html

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Vive la France.

https://twitter.com/MarineTraffic/status/1497531939443687428?s=20&t=E5wR9_tX...

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I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

yes, of course

I feel what's more likely is an invasion of Western Ukraine from the north. Brest is the closest large Belarussian city to the Ukranian-Belarussian border in the west.

[Storr]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

Turkey says it hasn't.
https://twitter.com/laurapitel/status/1497585905892274179?s=20&t=6yNw8gpTsrz...

[Storr]

Might be a ridiculous question, though it just crossed my mind whether there's any possibility that Mr. Putin will be indicted before the Den Haag International Criminal Court? Or whether it's somehow possible that an international arrest warrant for war crimes is issued? So he couldn't leave Russia or enter any country that would enforce such?

I could only see that happening if there are significant human rights violations occurring (like those in Yugoslavia, aka actual genocide or organized attacks on civilians). So far, not much of the campaign seems any worse when it comes to war crimes than the US invasion of Iraq. And Bush was never charged by the Hauge. Putin has an objective and is using his military to achieve it. From videos coming out of places overtaken by Russian forces, they seem to be trying to go out of their way not to retaliate against civilians (the video of the Ukrainian babushka berating what looked to be Russian Spetsnaz north of Crimea and the soldiers simply not reacting at all, comes to mind).

[Storr]

He probably got lost or something but this is very embarrassing.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1497603319526834183?t=ngKjVYRWIPcKWKPuived...

Tweet and documents say his name is Leonid Petrovich Shchetkin, born 1987. An analysis of Russian ground forces from March 2018 I found says the 35th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade is a "combat unit" based out of Aleisk, Altai Krai, part of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District, Novosibirsk (so it makes sense it would be one of the first units sent into war).

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Ground%20Forces%20OOB_ISW%20CTP_0.pdf

I also found a post on a website called informnapalm.com That has photos of the 35th reportedly stationed near Rostov (close to the Donetsk Oblast Ukrainian border) taken in September and October 2014.

https://informnapalm.org/en/btg-35th-motorized-rifle-brigade-russian-invasion-force/

[Storr]

Lol.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497616981016690692?s=20&t=u2OUaMaAhKfG4...

Yes...Ha Ha Ha...Yes!

[Storr]

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

What especially galls me is that the Ukrainian military could have easily stalled the Russians at the bottleneck north of Crimea too.  It wouldn't have taken many troops either.  

Not really. Open ground, perfect for airstrikes and artillery bombardment and close to Russian bases. Ukrainian forces have been effective in stopping the Russians in urban areas (like Kherson), but standing and fighting in open countryside would be suicide.

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

Do the Russians have more competent commanding officers in the south or is it more of a matter of where Ukraine's defenses are concentrated?

Not sure. Open terrain probably the biggest factor. Melitopol the only major city between Crimea and the east of the country.

Yeah, just looking at this topographic map of Ukraine you can see how the area between the Dnieper and Crimea is very flat and open, even by Ukrainian standards:

[Storr]

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

What especially galls me is that the Ukrainian military could have easily stalled the Russians at the bottleneck north of Crimea too.  It wouldn't have taken many troops either.  

Not really. Open ground, perfect for airstrikes and artillery bombardment and close to Russian bases. Ukrainian forces have been effective in stopping the Russians in urban areas (like Kherson), but standing and fighting in open countryside would be suicide.

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

Do the Russians have more competent commanding officers in the south or is it more of a matter of where Ukraine's defenses are concentrated?

Not sure. Open terrain probably the biggest factor. Melitopol the only major city between Crimea and the east of the country.

Yeah, just looking at this topographic map of Ukraine you can see how the area between the Dnieper and Crimea is very flat and open, even by Ukrainian standards:

Yes, I embarrassed myself.  That's my fault for casually looking at a map without also checking its topography.  

You're absolutely fine. I didn't realize just how flat it was until I just looked up a topo map of Ukraine (wikipedia ftw). I've been using google maps too keep track of all the reports of stuff going on, which doesn't give a great feel for topography.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1497582801289285642?s=20&t=go_cpGI_BH2...

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They abandoned a fully loaded Grad battery??

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1497590875794423810?s=20&t=GSpBLmLB4kL...

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Locals don't seem very happy to see Russian tanks rolling through their town: https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497623443512115207?s=20&t=GSpBLmLB4k...

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I'm not wanting to flood the thread, but I'll share this since it's incredibly based:
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497635170609893376?s=20&t=U9pjXw...

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Lol

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Based
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1497642216956780547?s=20&t=gSHxeAvOSmeEu...

[Storr]

A glimpse of what the Kremlin is reporting to the Russian people:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497616506737369088?s=20&t=m8Nl92RZh...

Edit: I watched a documentary on the first Chechen War last night, and it's been a worry for me the past few days that stiff Ukrainian resistance will convince the military that they have to go "all in" and pull a Grozny. Fortunately, (so far anyway) the Russians generally seem to be consciously avoiding using Chechnya like levels of force.

[Storr]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-chechen-leader-says-his-forces-deployed-ukraine-2022-02-26/?taid=621a48a73cade0000100f946&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Chechen deployment now confirmed. God help all Ukrainians, this will be ugly.

Already today there was a report that Ukrainian soldiers had killed a whole bunch of Chechens. Not surprising as Kadyrov’s thugs are more of a glorified police force than an army, so they should be no match for the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497657772980244483

RIP HP

[Storr]

If accurate, it seems like the Russians severely underestimated how many troops would be needed to successfully complete whatever the objectives of the "special military operation" are. This falls in line with the reported deployment of more Chechens and the odd Russian request for Kazakhstan to deploy troops to Ukraine.


At the beginning of the thread, it's claimed this came from a "senior US defense official".
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1497639459294261249?s=20&t=m8Nl92RZhF0v9W...

[Storr]

This would seem to be an attempt to get through to the Russian people that their sons and husbbands are the ones paying the price of this war. Of the documents claimed to be of those captured/killed, most were been born in the 70s and 80s. I'd guess that would be due to career pilots and soldiers which, would have the most experience, being sent in first (??).

The youngest was born on April 19, 1998. Another reminder of who suffers the most in war, the young.

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1497654058072649738?s=20&t=Rgk1tpBmQys7J2gnMHWAnw

[Storr]

I'd like to imagine all they had to tell the Russians was "we don't have any fuel".

(It sounds like more heated language was used than that, though.)
https://twitter.com/tanjamaier17/status/1497657141422968836?s=20&t=uHloRE0lN...

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A welcome sign set up for the Russians by a Ukrainian babushka:

https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1497670992876945408?s=20&t=Rgk1tp...

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Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

Almost need a meme for the Virgin Putin at this point.

There's the Classic Virgin Putin v. Chad Stalin meme:

[Storr]

Take this with a beach pail of salt, as coercing (or worse) POWs to say things for propaganda purposes has been around since the moving image became a thing:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497682179945553928?s=20&t=MMIfe_g2s...

[Storr]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1497508010926690312?s=20&t=cUwMMC...

[Storr]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

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Someone had too much vodka...

Evidently Putin is (likely?) planning to bring the Belarusian military into the war. Presumably its forces would be used for an attack on western Ukraine from Belarus. I can't imagine Belarusian morale is all that great currently. I'd get drunk too, to be honest.