Senate standings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Safe Democrat: CA, WA, HI, NM, ND, NE, MN, WI, MI, WV, PA, MD, FL, NY, MA
Likely Democrat: OH, RI
Lean Democrat: MT, NJ
Tossup: TN, MO
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: NV, UT, WY, TX, MS, IN, ME

Safe Indy: VT
Likely Indy: CT

[Tender Branson]

OH to lean and MO to Toss-Up

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

OH to lean and MO to Toss-Up

They're both kind of borderline.
After some thought I moved MO, but not OH.

[Gustaf]

I don't know what your definitions of the cateogories are, but I'd put Pennsylvania as Likely Democrat rather than Safe. A race that is within 10% is not safe to me. I mean, do you really think Pederson stands a better chance than Santorum? Other than that I guess it's ok, even though I'd be mroe catious in ranking some of the seats so highly for the Democrats.

[nini2287]

I'd move:

PA to Likely Dem
RI to Toss-Up/Lean Dem
MT to Likely Dem
NJ to Toss-Up (I think Menendez will win, but still very much a tossup)
AZ to Safe Republican (I think Maryland has a better chance of flipping)

[Conan]

I'd move:

PA to Likely Dem
RI to Toss-Up/Lean Dem
MT to Likely Dem
NJ to Toss-Up (I think Menendez will win, but still very much a tossup)
AZ to Safe Republican (I think Maryland has a better chance of flipping)

I agree with this except for PA and RI.

[adam]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI
Likely Democrat: OH, MT
Lean Democrat: RI, TN
Toss-Up: MO, NJ
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

[7,052,770]

MS should be Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican. 

[adam]

MS should be Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican. 

Isn't Trent Lott over 60%?

[7,052,770]

MS should be Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican. 

Isn't Trent Lott over 60%?

no, there hasn't been a poll since February (and that one was done before Lott even announced he was running), so it is utterly unknown where this race stands.

[adam]

MS should be Likely Republican rather than Safe Republican. 

Isn't Trent Lott over 60%?

no, there hasn't been a poll since February (and that one was done before Lott even announced he was running), so it is utterly unknown where this race stands.

If there hasn't been a poll since February, then there is most likely a logical reason why...perhaps it's not worth polling?

[ottermax]

Harry is right, if there hasn't been a poll since February it may have changed, but I do think that Lott is currently safe. We never can predict the future.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI, WA, ND, MN
Likely Democrat: OH, MT, PA
Lean Democrat: RI, TN
Toss-Up: MO, NJ
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS, IN

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

[Mike in Maryland]

Maryland safe Democratic?  No way.  I'd call it Leans, or maybe Likely if you want to be really generous.  From my perspective it looks good, but not in the bag.  And if we get overconfident or careless it could fall out of the bag.

And two others (Adam and NW OK Dem) forgot the state altogether.  (Just like an earlier thread/poll  on favorite potential Democratic senators left Cardin out.)  What gives?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Maryland safe Democratic?  No way.  I'd call it Leans, or maybe Likely if you want to be really generous.  From my perspective it looks good, but not in the bag.  And if we get overconfident or careless it could fall out of the bag.

And two others (Adam and NW OK Dem) forgot the state altogether.  (Just like an earlier thread/poll  on favorite potential Democratic senators left Cardin out.)  What gives?

Just a typo on my part, sorry.  Nothing intentional about missing Maryland, but yes, I would have put it high lean to low likely Dem.

[opebo]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI, WA, ND, MN
Likely Democrat: OH, PA
Lean Democrat: RI, NJ, MT
Toss-Up: MO, TN
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS, IN

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

[Joe Biden 2020]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI, WA, ND, MN
Likely Democrat: OH, PA
Lean Democrat: RI, NJ, MT
Toss-Up: MO, TN
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS, IN

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

Uh, where's Maryland?

[okstate]

Likely Dem: PA, MT, RI, WA, MI
Lean Dem: MD, NJ, OH
Tossup: MO, TN
Lean GOP: VA
Likely GOP: AZ

[MarkWarner08]

VA has to be in the tossup category. The last several polls show Webb gaining momentum, the DSCC has stepped up with $2M in negative ads, the climate seems to be worsening for the GOP and Allen hasn't gained much traction with his ads.

If Webb takes the lead in the next two weeks, it'll be hard for any of you naysayers to keep this race in the Leans GOP category.

[opebo]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI, WA, ND, MN
Likely Democrat: OH, PA
Lean Democrat: RI, NJ, MT
Toss-Up: MO, TN
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS, IN

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

Uh, where's Maryland?

OOPs, Maryland is Likely Democrat

[Joe Biden 2020]

Likely Dem: PA, MT, RI, WA, MI
Lean Dem: MD, NJ, OH
Tossup: MO, TN
Lean GOP: VA
Likely GOP: AZ

Hey, welcome to the forum.  Its good to have another Okie in the group.  We may be different parties, but thats not going to matter much.

[auburntiger]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI, WA, ND, MN
Likely Democrat: OH, MT, PA
Lean Democrat: RI, TN
Toss-Up: MO, NJ
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS, IN

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

TN is a tossup, buddy

[Alcon]

Here's how I see it:

Safe Democrat: CA, FL, HI, MA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, ND, WV, WI
Likely Democrat: OH, PA, WA
Lean Democrat: MD, MT, NJ, RI
Tossup: MO, TN
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: IN, ME, MS, NV, TX, UT, WY

Safe Indy: VT
Likely Indy: CT
Lean Indy: -

[Joe Biden 2020]

Safe Democrat: CA, HI, NM, WV, MA, NE, WI, FL, NY, MI, WA, ND, MN
Likely Democrat: OH, MT, PA
Lean Democrat: RI, TN
Toss-Up: MO, NJ
Lean Republican: VA
Likely Republican: AZ
Safe Republican: TX, WY, NV, UT, ME, MS, IN

Safe Independent: VT
Likely Independent: CT

TN is a tossup, buddy

Oops, thanks for catching that, I meant to put Tennessee toss-up.  You're right.  Corker and Ford are running neck and neck with Ford having a razor-thin edge.

I guess I was just being optimistic for the Democrats.

Thanks, auburntiger.

What I meant was to have MO, TN, and NJ in the toss-up categories.