My list of the 10 most competitive Gubernatorial elections

[Chips]

#1. Michigan (Toss-up)
#2. Nevada (Toss-up)
#3. Wisconsin (Toss-up)
#4. Georgia (Toss-up)
#5. Arizona (Toss-up)
#6. Pennsylvania (Toss-up)
#7. Kansas (Lean R)
#8. Maryland (Lean D)
#9. Minnesota (Lean D)
#10. Maine (Lean D)

[SnowLabrador]

Hard not to see Michigan as anything other than Lean/Likely R in this environment. Ditto with Wisconsin.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Hard not to see Michigan as anything other than Lean/Likely R in this environment. Ditto with Wisconsin.

I don't agree with your perspective 100% on the state of the Dems, but Whitmer does seem uniquely in bad shape after Murphy nearly lost due to his Covid policies.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maryland is not going to be competitive.

[Rjjr77]

Man, Michigan has to Tilt R at the least right now...

[Chips]

Hard not to see Michigan as anything other than Lean/Likely R in this environment. Ditto with Wisconsin.

I'd definitely agree if the elections were held today. (In fact, I think the GOP would've made a clean sweep of the toss-ups I just mentioned if the elections were held last Tuesday)

It's still a year out though and anything can happen. Dems still have time to make a comeback.

[Real Texan Politics]

I can't see Maryland being competitive, especially with Hogan term-limited and his Lt. governor not running either. I'd replace it with New Mexico or possibly even Connecticut, though the latter may be a slightly longer shot.

Also New Hampshire could be added to the list assuming Sununu goes for senate instead.

[MT Treasurer]

I maintain that most users/pundits are overrating Whitmer while underestimating how likely GA is to flip in 2022 (it’s no worse than a Tossup for the GOP, but if any gubernatorial swing state seat defies the national trend in 2022, it will be this one). It’s really hard to see Kemp holding on on a night when Whitmer, Evers, and Sisolak all win their races (even if only narrowly).

Also, there’s no universe in which MD is more competitive than ME. Even putting KS three spots ahead of ME is being very generous to Democrats.

[S019]

I'm going to rank them in terms of likelihood to flip rather than picking margins, but here we go

1a. Vermont (if Scott retires, this is Safe D, it is Safe R with him)
1b. Maryland (Likely/Safe D)
2a. Massachusetts (If Baker retires, this is Likely D, it is Safe R with him)
2b. Kansas (Lean R)
3. Georgia (Lean D)
4. Wisconsin (Tilt R)
5. Nevada (Tossup)
6. Pennsylvania (Tossup)
7. Michigan (Tossup)
8a. New Hampshire (If Sununu retires, this is a Tossup, Likely R with him)
8b. Arizona (Tilt R)
9. Connecticut (Lean D)
10. Maine (Lean D)

[xavier110]

My guess as to what will be the closest races by margin — that’s how I’ll define competitive. Of the “tossup” D incumbents, so disregarding Kelly, Evers is 1000 percent first to fall IMO. There’s a part of me that thinks Sisolak just barely hangs on.

1. Maine (Flip)
2. Nevada
3. Connecticut
4. Pennsylvania (Flip)
5. Georgia
6. Michigan (Flip)
7. Arizona
8. Minnesota
9. Wisconsin (Flip)
10. New Hampshire

Aka a brutal night for Ds  

[CookieDamage]

I think the only Dem state that is fair to categorize as lean R right now is Kansas. Yes Dems are doing bad at the moment and Biden's approval rating is in the dumps, but the election is a year away.

On an unrealistically amazing night for Dems, they hold Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan and take Arizona and Georgia. Probably not happening.

On a good or decent night, they might limit their losses to just Kansas and/or Wisconsin, while holding Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maine. They also might pick up one of Georgia or Arizona.

On a crummy night, Kansas and Wisconsin clearly fall, with Dems only keeping one of Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada, or Michigan.

On an atrocious night, Dems get wiped out in Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Maine. They pick up no states and are at risk of losing one or two of Minnesota, New Mexico, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, and maybe even Colorado.

[CookieDamage]

I'm going to rank them in terms of likelihood to flip rather than picking margins, but here we go

1a. Vermont (if Scott retires, this is Safe D, it is Safe R with him)
1b. Maryland (Likely/Safe D)
2a. Massachusetts (If Baker retires, this is Likely D, it is Safe R with him)
2b. Kansas (Lean R)
3. Georgia (Lean D)
4. Wisconsin (Tilt R)
5. Nevada (Tossup)
6. Pennsylvania (Tossup)
7. Michigan (Tossup)
8a. New Hampshire (If Sununu retires, this is a Tossup, Likely R with him)
8b. Arizona (Tilt R)
9. Connecticut (Lean D)
10. Maine (Lean D)

I'd say NH is tilt/lean R if Sununu retires for Senate, and Safe R with him. It's just not gonna be attainable during a Biden midterm if the suburbanites shift as far right as they did in NJ and VA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are conflicting polls in KS, Clarity showed Kelly in KS leading and another poll showed her losing, she isn't DOA

[Flyersfan232]

Maryland is not going to be competitive.

Maybe if the lt governor reconsiders

[Figueira]

Massachusetts is a wild card. I feel like it will be either Safe D or Safe R by Election Day. Safe R with a popular Baker (thought not as big a win as 2018), Safe D with a disgraced Baker or a right-wing Republican. Someone like Karyn Polito might make it competitive (similar to 2014), but I don't see that happening.

[GregTheGreat657]

10. Florida (Likely R)
9. New Mexico (Lean/Likely D)
8. Minnesota (Lean D)
7. Wisconsin (Lean R)
6. Georgia (Lean D)
5. Pennsylvania (Lean R)
4. Maine (Lean D)
3. Nevada (Tilt R)
2. Michigan (Tilt R)
1. Arizona (Pure Tossup)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

#1. Michigan (Toss-up) - FLIP
#2. New Hampshire (Toss-up)
#3. Nevada (Toss-up)
#4. Georgia (Toss-up)
#5. Pennsylvania (Toss-up) - FLIP
#6. Wisconsin (Toss-up) - FLIP
#7. Arizona (Toss-up)
#8. Kansas (Lean R) - FLIP
#9. Maine (Lean D) - FLIP
#10. Connecticut (Lean D) - FLIP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My list

AK BILL WALKER WILL BE ELECTED
AZ Hobbs Fav
FL RODGER STONE IS THREATENING TO RUN AS A THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE
KS Kelly is FAV
ME GOLDEN ALWAYS OVERPERFORMS IF HE DOES Mills will get reelected
MI polls in this state are always junkie
NV SISOLAK narrowly wins
PA Josh Shapiro
WI Tony Evers

CA, CO, OH, NY, IL, HI, NH, NM, OR, CT, RI aren't gonna be competitive

[😥]

1. Michigan (Tossup)
2. Arizona (Tossup)
3. Georgia (Tossup)
4. Pennsylvania (Tossup/Tilt D)
5. Nevada (Tossup/Tilt R)
6. Wisconsin (Tossup/Tilt R)
7. Oregon (Lean D)
8. New Mexico (Lean D)
9. Maine (Lean D)
10. Kansas (Lean R)

If I had to guess MI and AZ go to the GOP, while Dems gain GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/roger-stone-said-hell-run-082536527.html
It's not over yet for FL Gov Syoje says he will rub for Gov if DeSANTIS doesn't meet his standard

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Maryland is not going to be competitive.

Maybe if the lt governor reconsiders

Even then, it'll be Likely D at best. Franchot is very strong.

[Calthrina950]

Maryland is not going to be competitive.

Maybe if the lt governor reconsiders

Even then, it'll be Likely D at best. Franchot is very strong.

Hogan is term-limited, I believe, so he cannot run again.

[One Term Floridian]

Could we still consider GA as Lean D with the unique GOP problems with Trump there, D trends and potential Warnock coattails? I'm still thinking that way honestly

[South Dakota Democrat]

Could we still consider GA as Lean D with the unique GOP problems with Trump there, D trends and potential Warnock coattails? I'm still thinking that way honestly

No.

[Chips]

Could we still consider GA as Lean D with the unique GOP problems with Trump there, D trends and potential Warnock coattails? I'm still thinking that way honestly

Keep in mind, the GOP is the incumbent party holding the governorship there. I honestly don't think it'll flip if the GOP is having a very good year nationwide which is very possible.