Rate CT-Gov

[AGA]

This could be competitive, imo.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lean/Likely D

[Big Abraham]

Tilt D, but that’s a complete hunch.

[SN2903]

Toss up

[Fetterman my beloved]

Likely D for now unless some major Republican announces.

[Xing]

I guess it wasn't such a crazy idea to think that this could be competitive. Now, I think Lamont is currently more popular than Murphy, and Connecticut is a bit more Democratic than New Jersey, but the closeness of recent results in gubernatorial races here should give people pause. Likely D for now with Lamont, Tilt/Lean D with someone else.

[CookieDamage]

tilt/lean D. Could be a pickup for Rs in an even worse environment for Dems

[CascadianIndy]

Safe Connecticut for Lieberman

[TWTown]

I must say, it’s pretty surprising how Lamont seems to have turned the Governorship around for the CTDems. From winning narrowly on the back of an unpopular incumbent to being in the 60% range for approvals. We’ll have to see if it lasts but I’ll go with a tentative Likely D because this is Connecticut. If Lamont is losing, Democrats are having a bad night.

[Suburbia]

Likely D.

If Brian Cashman enters the race, it is Tossup.

[Schiff for Senate]

tilt/lean D. Could be a pickup for Rs in an even worse environment for Dems

Not going to be that close; this is CT we're talking about. I know you're reeling by what happened in your state and in VA, but that doesn't mean CT is competitive. Likely Democratic, I'd say.

[Suburbia]

It's a small rich state with less people than 20 years ago, it doesn't have much other than trust fund people

[Fuzzy Bear]

A lot of the rating here would depend on whether or not the issues that played in VA and on Long Island will apply to this very suburban state.  Democrats have a structural advantage in CT but if CT suburbanites are more concerned about quality of life issues and not national liberal issues, the race could get interesting.  CT may be a test as to whether the shift to the GOP on Long Island was a temporary glitch or the beginning of a greater suburban realignment.

[Duke of York]

A lot of the rating here would depend on whether or not the issues that played in VA and on Long Island will apply to this very suburban state.  Democrats have a structural advantage in CT but if CT suburbanites are more concerned about quality of life issues and not national liberal issues, the race could get interesting.  CT may be a test as to whether the shift to the GOP on Long Island was a temporary glitch or the beginning of a greater suburban realignment.

Why just long Island? Democrats did very well in Westchester. They only lost one seat.

[Fuzzy Bear]

A lot of the rating here would depend on whether or not the issues that played in VA and on Long Island will apply to this very suburban state.  Democrats have a structural advantage in CT but if CT suburbanites are more concerned about quality of life issues and not national liberal issues, the race could get interesting.  CT may be a test as to whether the shift to the GOP on Long Island was a temporary glitch or the beginning of a greater suburban realignment.

Why just long Island? Democrats did very well in Westchester. They only lost one seat.

Westchester is very different from Long Island; it is less working class and more upper class.  It also has more urbanized communities (Mount Vernon, Yonkers, White Plains) than Long Island.

[New England Fire Squad]

I find it unlikely that this race gets all that competitive unless the national environment is truly atrocious for the Dems. Lamont hasn't made people hate him the way Malloy did; he hasn't been overly heavy handed with Covid restrictions, and outside of attempting to reinstate tolls (which failed) he's offended no one.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

tilt/lean D. Could be a pickup for Rs in an even worse environment for Dems

Not going to be that close; this is CT we're talking about. I know you're reeling by what happened in your state and in VA, but that doesn't mean CT is competitive. Likely Democratic, I'd say.

Why, yes this is Connecticut that we're talking about. The same Connecticut that in a D+8.5 wave year saw the Democrats only won by 3.2, with a spoiler Republican in the race.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Connecticut_gubernatorial_election

[Schiff for Senate]

tilt/lean D. Could be a pickup for Rs in an even worse environment for Dems

Not going to be that close; this is CT we're talking about. I know you're reeling by what happened in your state and in VA, but that doesn't mean CT is competitive. Likely Democratic, I'd say.

Why, yes this is Connecticut that we're talking about. The same Connecticut that in a D+8.5 wave year saw the Democrats only won by 3.2, with a spoiler Republican in the race.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Connecticut_gubernatorial_election

All I'm going to do here is quote what a Republican FROM Connecticut has to say about the race. He knows CT politics better than either of us do, and he agrees that GOV 2022 most likely won't be competitive:

I find it unlikely that this race gets all that competitive unless the national environment is truly atrocious for the Dems. Lamont hasn't made people hate him the way Malloy did; he hasn't been overly heavy handed with Covid restrictions, and outside of attempting to reinstate tolls (which failed) he's offended no one.

[Senator Incitatus]

Lean D, closer to Likely.

[choclatechip45]

Safe D. Lamont is the most popular Governor in years in CT. If Republicans couldn't win in 2014 with Malloy being unpopular and one of the best years for Republicans it will be hard for them to win in 2022.

[kwabbit]

Lean D. Lamont is in a similar to position to what Murphy was in a year ago. Riding some COVID popularity, but when the election approaches the same factors that made the 2018 race close will make this one close too. He only won by 4 in a Dem wave year against a non-moderate R, it would be easy to see him get booted with a good challenger given the harsh environment.

[Suburbia]

Safe D. Lamont is the most popular Governor in years in CT. If Republicans couldn't win in 2014 with Malloy being unpopular and one of the best years for Republicans it will be hard for them to win in 2022.

Do you think if a big name like Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, a Republican, ran, he would make it competitive?

[junior chįmp]

Safe D. NED-mania has gripped Connecticut.

[New England Fire Squad]

I haven't changed my opinion, but if Lamont were to mandate a third vaccine I think he might get a bit vulnerable. We'll see.

[LAB-LIB]

Ned Lamont has gone from being one of the least popular governors in the country to one of the most. His approval rating has dropped a little bit from it's peak in 2020, but I think a poll came out this week with his approval rating above 60%. Now one year is a long time in politics and he could mess up, but I wouldn't count on it. I'm having it as Likely D right now because I'm very cautious, but I think Lamont's going to win, possibly rather handily.