WI - Marquette Law: Evers underwater

[neostassenite31]

Tony Evers (D) - 40%
Someone Else^TM - 53%

Evers approval:
45% approve
46% disapprove

Evers favorability:
42% favorable
45% unfavorable

Oct. 26-31, 2021 (805 RV)
MoE: 3.9%

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1455948106667810821

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2021/11/03/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-poll-october-26-31-2021/

[ElectionsGuy]

Really? Did they not test him against Kleefisch?

[CookieDamage]

tilt/lean r

[neostassenite31]

More from this poll

Evers approval on handling of the pandemic:
53% approve
40% disapprove

Biden job approval (in WI):
43% approve
53% disapprove

[Xing]

-1% approval could be worse, but barring a sea change he probably loses, given how Wisconsin tends to go in Democratic midterms.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

I choose to take away 52% for "someone else" against Ron Johnson and ignore all the other stuff. #RunRonRun

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

tilt/lean r

Alright Solid let's not be too hasty it's a yr before an Election and Johnson Approvals are bad too

[Person Man]

I agree. If the election was today, the generic R would win by about 10 points as they won Virginia by 2 and lost New Jersey by 1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree. If the election was today, the generic R would win by about 10 points as they won Virginia by 2 and lost New Jersey by 1.

Johnson is below 50 percent To y Where would not lose by 10

[Progressive Pessimist]

Safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

Definitely Lean R. The environment probably won’t be quite as bad for Democrats next year as it is today, but he would need a more than atypical midterm to make it. In a wave he’s gone.

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R.

o
Overreaction to the Election results the race isn't for a ye

[S019]

Wisconsin was always going to be an incredibly tough hold, especially given Evers' very lackluster performance in 2018 history and the strength of the WIGOP, Tilt R is fair for now, but Evers was always going to have an uphill battle from the moment that Biden won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin was always going to be an incredibly tough hold, especially given Evers' very lackluster performance in 2018 history and the strength of the WIGOP, Tilt R is fair for now, but Evers was always going to have an uphill battle from the moment that Biden won.

Biden is leading in WI, by 4 pts and you still believe D's are gonna win FL after polls show D's down 12 and 19 pta

[wbrocks67]

I agree. If the election was today, the generic R would win by about 10 points as they won Virginia by 2 and lost New Jersey by 1.

People can't extrapolate the results to every state, though. The PA race was only R+1 this year. Youngkin did better than Brobson (R candidate) in VA than in PA...

Different races, but that's the point.

[Skill and Chance]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

News flash Johnson is below 50% and Biden is leading by 4 in WI, it's a 384 blue wall that includes WI, PA and MI, Rs haven't won WI for a generation they just won it during the Walker and Ryan generation, it's never gone

It has 12% Blk, IA is gone with 2% blk


You only pick out the R parts of polls you never pick out D parts and Johnson isn't at 50%, I noticed that about you

[wbrocks67]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

Again, people are extrapolating way too much from VA and NJ (esp given other circumstances in NJ).

PA and GA would suggest otherwise.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

News flash Johnson is below 50% and Biden is leading by 4 in WI, it's a 384 blue wall that includes WI, PA and MI, Rs haven't won WI for a generation they just won it during the Walker and Ryan generation, it's never gone

It has 12% Blk, IA is gone with 2% blk


You only pick out the R parts of polls you never pick out D parts and Johnson isn't at 50%, I noticed that about you

Dude, while I agree Wisconsin is a race that can be won (although hard to pull off) you act similar in races which have D incumbents and could be competitive, while again in a year a lot can change, and approval at this point say nothing.

I suspect more than a month ago, you also would bet your life that VA gubernational election couldn't be won by a Republican. Your takes are annoying, obnoxious, inconsistent, biased and most of all naive.

But I agree with you that likely R ratings for WI are stupid, even if Evers could indeed lose by 5 points, and Ron Johnson can easily win re-election perhaps, but that doesn't justify likely R at this point.

[Hope For A New Era]

Pretty much in line with what I've been expecting. The most likely D->R flips are Wisconsin and Nevada (and not Kansas).

[Minnesota Mike]

Polls that match a candidate against "someone else" are worthless. Of course Evers will trail Republican Jesus, try polling against a real candidate with flaws.

[lfromnj]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

Again, people are extrapolating way too much from VA and NJ (esp given other circumstances in NJ).

PA and GA would suggest otherwise.

Oh wow local races in Georgia are clearly a much better indicator of the midterms than VA.

[Sestak]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

Again, people are extrapolating way too much from VA and NJ (esp given other circumstances in NJ).

PA and GA would suggest otherwise.

Oh wow local races in Georgia are clearly a much better indicator of the midterms than VA.

I mean none of those states are actually particularly like Wisconsin. I know it’s semi in vogue on this forum to treat GA like its own microcosm and everything else as a unified bloc but assuming linearity between these two Governor elections (a year apart!) is a tad ridiculous.

[lfromnj]

Starting to wonder if every statewide election in a state that wasn't Biden by double digits in 2020 is gone in 2022?

Again, people are extrapolating way too much from VA and NJ (esp given other circumstances in NJ).

PA and GA would suggest otherwise.

Oh wow local races in Georgia are clearly a much better indicator of the midterms than VA.

I mean none of those states are actually particularly like Wisconsin. I know it’s semi in vogue on this forum to treat GA like its own microcosm and everything else as a unified bloc but assuming linearity between these two Governor elections (a year apart!) is a tad ridiculous.

I think Virginia mostly just confirmed other peoples priors about a bad year coming up for Democrats. Maybe just a mildly R leaning year but a wave is also possible. Its hard to see Evers survive either such event. Obviously this poll is bad due to no Kleefisch.  Its pretty sad when a user is bringing up local municipal races as proof of a nationwide indicator. At that point one might as well argue the year will be R+70 because Republicans won a race in Seattle.