Did Youngkin over or underperform Trump with non-Whites?

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/realtonysm1th/status/1455683712453074951
I’m asking because certain exit polls somehow show Youngkin underperforming Trump and even Gillespie with minorities, yet he’s getting margins in places in Loudoun and PWC/Manassas that Trump or Republicans in 2017 could only dream of (and those areas have a heavy Hispanic/Asian pop, not just white suburbanites).


Which is it? I personally think that the exit polls are full of drivel, but who knows.

[THG]

Bumping this.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Manassas is known for having a lot of Latinos, not a lot of Asians... Let's wait until all the ballots have been counted.

Re: Predict the margin in Fairfax County

62-38, with the biggest swings coming in the wealthiest precincts. Big swings in Asian precincts as well.

Lol Fairfax is 64.4-35.0 with 99-100% of the vote in

[Orwell]

I'd assume about even, the suburbs winning towards him accounts for the turnout difference in the rurals

[Bootes Void]

He overperformed Trump by alot despite what the exits say

[THG]

Manassas is known for having a lot of Latinos, not a lot of Asians... Let's wait until all the ballots have been counted.

Re: Predict the margin in Fairfax County

62-38, with the biggest swings coming in the wealthiest precincts. Big swings in Asian precincts as well.

Lol Fairfax is 64.4-35.0 with 99-100% of the vote in

Manassas is fully in. Youngkin lost it by 10, Trump lost it more by 24. And Salvadorans are like the opposite of Cubans in many ways.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It was literally an identical swing everywhere. No single racial group disproportionately contributed. It was not caused by urban, suburban, or rural voters. It was not caused by wealthier or poorer voters. It was an almost mathematically perfect uniform swing statewide. Each group's "marginal voter" behaved essentially the same way.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/GiancarloSopo/status/1455740869437440003

I believe this about as much as the CNN exit polls. The real number is probably in the 40’s.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716
McAuliffe did better with Latinos, Asians, and Black voters... but absolutely collapsed with white voters.

Still waiting for someone to do/post precinct level analysis for Latinos and Asians in NoVA, but those numbers are probably off.

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236
Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018. Pollster said the polls pointing to a Youngkin victory specifically suggested a D underperformance with black voters, which kinda makes sense considering who the VA GOP ran for the other statewide offices?

https://twitter.com/IAmKrishanPatel/status/1455977427444797441
https://twitter.com/Xeynon/status/1455977588447498241
This makes more sense.

[THG]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1455980091893235716
McAuliffe did better with Latinos, Asians, and Black voters... but absolutely collapsed with white voters.

Still waiting for someone to do/post precinct level analysis for Latinos and Asians in NoVA, but those numbers are probably off.

https://twitter.com/rsgore/status/1455980117558239236?s=20
Black voters swinging R by more than Latino or Asian voters in a post-Trump election is what I would’ve expected back in 2017 or 2018. Pollster said the polls pointing to a Youngkin victory specifically suggested a D underperformance with black voters, which kinda makes sense considering who the VA GOP ran for the other statewide offices?

https://twitter.com/IAmKrishanPatel/status/1455977427444797441?s=20
https://twitter.com/Xeynon/status/1455977588447498241?s=20
This makes more sense.

You don’t get Manassas, Loudoun, or Prince William County within 14-15 or so without doing significantly better with Asians and Hispanics. NOVA isn’t solely white suburbanites. That being said he probably got 40-45% of Latinos and Asians.

I don’t think black voters moved that far to the right either. Black turnout was higher than many analysts predicted but still down.

[EastwoodS]

CNN needs to go and fix that eye sore of an exit poll. I don’t want people to see it and think Hispanics actually trended D when they didn’t..it’s also the most accessible exit poll so it’s easy for a lot of gullible people to see it