My Election Day Vote Thresholds for McAuliffe and Youngkin

[Chips]

All of this is under the assumption that early voting is going about 60-40 for McAuliffe which sounds reasonable enough.

If McAuliffe is getting 60% of the early vote, I'd say he needs to hold Youngkin to around 60-40 in the election day vote to win. If the election day vote is closer to 70-30 Youngkin, I think Youngkin wins.

[Non Swing Voter]

All of this is under the assumption that early voting is going about 60-40 for McAuliffe which sounds reasonable enough.

If McAuliffe is getting 60% of the early vote, I'd say he needs to hold Youngkin to around 60-40 in the election day vote to win. If the election day vote is closer to 70-30 Youngkin, I think Youngkin wins.

70-30 is a tall lift.  There are still A LOT of votes out in NOVA and even though the GOP will do better on Election Day than early with them they won't win them.  Even if T-Mac only gets 55% of the NOVA Election Day vote that makes it fairly difficult for Youngkin to average it up to 70% statewide.

IIRC correctly, Biden won the Fairfax County Election Day vote even though Dems voted overwhelmingly before the election.  It should be more Dem in 2021 on Election Day because turnout wasn't as robust early.

[Chips]

All of this is under the assumption that early voting is going about 60-40 for McAuliffe which sounds reasonable enough.

If McAuliffe is getting 60% of the early vote, I'd say he needs to hold Youngkin to around 60-40 in the election day vote to win. If the election day vote is closer to 70-30 Youngkin, I think Youngkin wins.

70-30 is a tall lift.  There are still A LOT of votes out in NOVA and even though the GOP will do better on Election Day than early with them they won't win them.  Even if T-Mac only gets 55% of the NOVA Election Day vote that makes it fairly difficult for Youngkin to average it up to 70% statewide.

IIRC correctly, Biden won the Fairfax County Election Day vote even though Dems voted overwhelmingly before the election.  It should be more Dem in 2021 on Election Day because turnout wasn't as robust early.

I'd say the race will essentially be a dead heat if it's something like 65-35 Youngkin which is probably a tad more reasonable but this is all my opinion.

[Non Swing Voter]

All of this is under the assumption that early voting is going about 60-40 for McAuliffe which sounds reasonable enough.

If McAuliffe is getting 60% of the early vote, I'd say he needs to hold Youngkin to around 60-40 in the election day vote to win. If the election day vote is closer to 70-30 Youngkin, I think Youngkin wins.

70-30 is a tall lift.  There are still A LOT of votes out in NOVA and even though the GOP will do better on Election Day than early with them they won't win them.  Even if T-Mac only gets 55% of the NOVA Election Day vote that makes it fairly difficult for Youngkin to average it up to 70% statewide.

IIRC correctly, Biden won the Fairfax County Election Day vote even though Dems voted overwhelmingly before the election.  It should be more Dem in 2021 on Election Day because turnout wasn't as robust early.

I'd say the race will essentially be a dead heat if it's something like 65-35 Youngkin which is probably a tad more reasonable but this is all my opinion.

It would be a dead heat at those numbers but I still think that's a heavy lift.  NOVA turnout + black voters downstate who prefer to turn out on Election Day makes it difficult for the vote to be that skewed.  Hopefully we get into on turnout as the day progresses in the BIG 3 NOVA counties.  Some of them tend to post data on twitter.  But Fairfax has been slacking lately. 

[Chips]

All of this is under the assumption that early voting is going about 60-40 for McAuliffe which sounds reasonable enough.

If McAuliffe is getting 60% of the early vote, I'd say he needs to hold Youngkin to around 60-40 in the election day vote to win. If the election day vote is closer to 70-30 Youngkin, I think Youngkin wins.

70-30 is a tall lift.  There are still A LOT of votes out in NOVA and even though the GOP will do better on Election Day than early with them they won't win them.  Even if T-Mac only gets 55% of the NOVA Election Day vote that makes it fairly difficult for Youngkin to average it up to 70% statewide.

IIRC correctly, Biden won the Fairfax County Election Day vote even though Dems voted overwhelmingly before the election.  It should be more Dem in 2021 on Election Day because turnout wasn't as robust early.

I'd say the race will essentially be a dead heat if it's something like 65-35 Youngkin which is probably a tad more reasonable but this is all my opinion.

It would be a dead heat at those numbers but I still think that's a heavy lift.  NOVA turnout + black voters downstate who prefer to turn out on Election Day makes it difficult for the vote to be that skewed.  Hopefully we get into on turnout as the day progresses in the BIG 3 NOVA counties.  Some of them tend to post data on twitter.  But Fairfax has been slacking lately.  

True. I actually now have the race as a dead-heat myself so I'm speaking as someone who's conflicted on who I think will win.

[wbrocks67]

If there's still a ton of Dems that have to vote tomorrow, Youngkin 65-35 or something would seem like a really tall order.

However, if Dems have a total turnout collapse tomorrow then yeah

[Non Swing Voter]

If there's still a ton of Dems that have to vote tomorrow, Youngkin 65-35 or something would seem like a really tall order.

However, if Dems have a total turnout collapse tomorrow then yeah

There is still going to be big turnout in Fairfax.  I actually don't know anyone who has voted yet (including myself) and we all voted early last time.  The satellite sites weren't open as long this year and few people wanted to go to that gov. center that's 45 minutes away.