Trafalgar: Youngkin +2.3

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1455202942143897603

[Skill and Chance]

This will be interesting.  Youngkin is probably leading but nothing is backing up the Fox +5-10 lead, which is where I thought this would go in the final days.

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting. Arguably one of TMAC’s best polls in days. And makes the Fox poll look even weirder. Still Likely Youngkin but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.

[Woody]

Definitely helps that we got the gold standard on our side.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good poll for T-Mac.

[Xing]

>Decimals

[wbrocks67]

Well this poll does have one thing correct... if Black voters only account for 16.6% of the electorate, T-Mac IS likely losing lol.

Must be a blow out inside this poll with Independents, b/c it has a Dem +8 party participation.

[Matty]

Well, indies are going heavy youngkin in every poll so that’s not a surprise

Indies voted extremely dem during Trump years

Indies favor candidates offering fresh stuff

[wbrocks67]

Well, indies are going heavy youngkin in every poll so that’s not a surprise

Indies voted extremely dem during Trump years

Indies favor candidates offering fresh stuff

i get what you're saying, but i wouldn't exactly say Youngkin is offering something 'fresh'. It's always easier to be on offense than defense.

[Devils30]

Means TMac +4 with the usual 6 point bias.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Terry is a disaster of a candidate

[ElectionsGuy]

>Decimals

This stupid meme doesn't matter at all. Why would we not want more detail?

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar did not poll the 2020 race for VA, but in 2017 they had Northam +1. Take that as you will

[Chips]

Could be worse for McAuliffe.

[Senator Incitatus]

Sample is D+8. Youngkin is cleaning up with independents.

[wbrocks67]

Sample is D+8. Youngkin is cleaning up with independents.

Yep, will depend if he's winning them by single digits like some polls claim, or by nearly 20% as others suggest.

Gillepsie won them by 3, but Biden won them by double digits so they're very swingy.

[Xing]

>Decimals

This stupid meme doesn't matter at all. Why would we not want more detail?

Calm down, dude.

[2016]

Regardless if these Polls from Trafalgar & Insider Advantage are accurate Youngkin has the Momentum heading into E-Day and that counts for a lot. He is peaking at the right time.

[kwabbit]

Trafalgar's methodology changes when the GOP candidate is actually leading or close to it like Youngkin seems to be. If McAuliffe was up by 6 they'd have it tied. If it's tied they'd have it Youngkin +2. Their purpose is to always provide good news for the GOP, and if the GOP doesn't need as much good news, they adjust less.

[Skill and Chance]

Whether it's Youngkin +2 or Youngkin +6 is quite important even assuming he wins.  In the former case, Dems will likely hold onto at least something downballot, maybe even everything given the polling trends for McAuliffe vs. downballot Dems.  In the latter case, it's almost surely a GOP sweep.

[Pollster]

>Decimals

This stupid meme doesn't matter at all. Why would we not want more detail?

Decimals imply a level of accuracy/precision that polling is statistically not able to provide.

[Badger]

>Decimals

This stupid meme doesn't matter at all. Why would we not want more detail?

Decimals imply a level of accuracy/precision that polling is statistically not able to provide.

 All other things being equal, are result of say 48.5% I've percent to 47.4% is at least statistically more accurate than simply reporting it is is 49 to 47%.

Is anyway, I guess the one saving grace I have here is that this is the same firm that putIs Murphy up by less than 5 points. If they are hopefully as far off in this result as they are likely to be in New Jersey, Is T-Mac should squeak out a win

[ElectionsGuy]

>Decimals

This stupid meme doesn't matter at all. Why would we not want more detail?

Calm down, dude.

I'm fine, thank you. This has typically been used as a way to dismiss any poll and signal that it's "low quality". In reality, it has nothing to do with the quality of the poll and only how it's presented by the pollster.

>Decimals

This stupid meme doesn't matter at all. Why would we not want more detail?

Decimals imply a level of accuracy/precision that polling is statistically not able to provide.

As you know, if a poll comes out to say... 49.4 vs 46.6, rounding would make it +2, but it's closer to +3 in reality. That would be something worth knowing at times.

[Pollster]

All other things being equal, are result of say 48.5% I've percent to 47.4% is at least statistically more accurate than simply reporting it is is 49 to 47%.

Not even remotely close to true.

[Pollster]

As you know, if a poll comes out to say... 49.4 vs 46.6, rounding would make it +2, but it's closer to +3 in reality. That would be something worth knowing at times.

There is no statistically significant difference between a topline result of +2 and +3 until you reach a sample size of 20,000 or more.

"Statistical tie" is not a media buzzword (though they often use it as one). It does actually mean something that is real.