Could Youngkin carry Fairfax County, VA?

[tik 🪀✨]

As recently as 2015 another rich Rep won county-wide (Clerk of Courts)

[Roll Roons]

You're being sarcastic, right?

[tik 🪀✨]

That would be highly out of character.

[SnowLabrador]

Even if Youngkin wins by double digits, he won't come close to carrying Fairfax.

[TML]

Only if he's winning statewide by at least 30 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Oh, hi. Long time no see.
No, he doesn't have a chance.

[tik 🪀✨]

It's a little disingenuous to assert there's no way that this wouldn't be a major factor for voters in Fairfax.

[Roll Roons]

Even if Youngkin wins by double digits, he won't come close to carrying Fairfax.

Even if Youngkin wins, there's absolutely no way it'll be by double digits.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Youngkin has two chances to carry Fairfax County:

1. Slim

2. Fat

[Non Swing Voter]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

[jamestroll]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

Don't worry, it could be worse.
You could have people asking if Youngkin might win Richmond City or Norfolk.
Or even Charlottesville.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

Don't worry, it could be worse.
You could have people asking if Youngkin might win Richmond City or Norfolk.
Or even Charlottesville.

Don't worry, I am sure at least one of those is coming tomorrow.  And because they are actually being led to believe that Youngkin will win, when they are shocked on Election Day they will again declare the election rigged and that early voting was fake. 

[lfromnj]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

Fox Polls are usually pretty bad but this is an insane comment.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

Fox Polls are usually pretty bad but this is an insane comment.

Oh really?  Because Fox didn't spend the last 4 years coordinating with Trump on everything?

After calling AZ for Biden, Fox wouldn't call NV for him and push him over 270 because Trump was MAF...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

This is far from impossible.
I've been wondering if Dems will ultimately profit from the Fox poll. It helps you raise money if you can sell the race as one you lead, but that also helps turn out the other side, as suddenly the election is in doubt.
We saw a somewhat similar dynamic in TX-PRES 2020. Beto nearly winning led to R turnout increasing. Trump won 4.69 million votes in 2016 and 5.89 million in 2020.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

This is far from impossible.
I've been wondering if Dems will ultimately profit from the Fox poll. It helps you raise money if you can sell the race as one you lead, but that also helps turn out the other side, as suddenly the election is in doubt.
We saw a somewhat similar dynamic in TX-PRES 2020. Beto nearly winning led to R turnout increasing. Trump won 4.69 million votes in 2016 and 5.89 million in 2020.

It's too late to raise money I suppose but it will scare Dems into turning out, and given how Dem-leaning VA is all T-Mac needs is for Dems to turnout.

T-Mac should have been hammering home (i.e., scaring) women about the abortion issue and failed to.  This might solve the alleged complacency issue among Dems (even though there is no evidence Dems are complacent). 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

This is far from impossible.
I've been wondering if Dems will ultimately profit from the Fox poll. It helps you raise money if you can sell the race as one you lead, but that also helps turn out the other side, as suddenly the election is in doubt.
We saw a somewhat similar dynamic in TX-PRES 2020. Beto nearly winning led to R turnout increasing. Trump won 4.69 million votes in 2016 and 5.89 million in 2020.

It's too late to raise money I suppose but it will scare Dems into turning out, and given how Dem-leaning VA is all T-Mac needs is for Dems to turnout.

T-Mac should have been hammering home (i.e., scaring) women about the abortion issue and failed to.  This might solve the alleged complacency issue among Dems (even though there is no evidence Dems are complacent).  

From a "game theory" perspective, it just seems the best thing for Youngkin was to not lead big in any polls at all. His voters were probably going to turn out anyway, while if enough Ds turn out that could sink him badly.
And core D voters loathe Youngkin, from the looks of it.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is getting ridiculous.

In the last 2 days, one person claimed Youngkin would win Prince William.  Now this.

predictit comments have a lot of wishcasting about Youngkin..

-Fairfax Resident who thinks it could well be Youngkin/Ayala/Herring winning

Prediction, the garbage Fox poll (probably coordinated with the Youngkin campaign) will push Dem enthusiasm in Fairfax/Arlington/Alexandria up off the charts and backfire spectacularly.  Like everything else the GOP does.

This is far from impossible.
I've been wondering if Dems will ultimately profit from the Fox poll. It helps you raise money if you can sell the race as one you lead, but that also helps turn out the other side, as suddenly the election is in doubt.
We saw a somewhat similar dynamic in TX-PRES 2020. Beto nearly winning led to R turnout increasing. Trump won 4.69 million votes in 2016 and 5.89 million in 2020.

It's too late to raise money I suppose but it will scare Dems into turning out, and given how Dem-leaning VA is all T-Mac needs is for Dems to turnout.

T-Mac should have been hammering home (i.e., scaring) women about the abortion issue and failed to.  This might solve the alleged complacency issue among Dems (even though there is no evidence Dems are complacent).  

From a "game theory" perspective, it just seems the best thing for Youngkin was to not lead big in any polls at all. His voters were probably going to turn out anyway, while if enough Ds turn out that could sink him badly.
And core D voters loathe Youngkin, from the looks of it.

Probably.  Though the big problem for him is if the turnout is too LOW, he's probably screwed because Dems have a huge education advantage in VA and are therefore higher propensity voters.  If the turnout is too HIGH he's screwed because of the general demographics of the state.  He needs the sweet spot of MEDIUM turnout where his people are slightly more engaged than high propensity Dems but those are the only two groups who vote (i.e., young people and minorities vote at very low rates).  Very hard to balance.