2012 without Hurricane Sandy

[GregTheGreat657]

I'd guess this would be the map

[Mr.Phips]

Does anyone seriously believe that this swung a single state?

[BigVic]

There is an earlier scenario where Sandy Hook takes place in October 2012. Map wouldn’t had changed a lot other than Dems holding onto NC

[dw93]

Given how close it was, Florida is the only state I could see going to Romney without the Hurricane. Other than that, the map stays the same.

[Skill and Chance]

I think this is right.  Also, Romney might have won the PV.  Because this is a site for political enthusiasts, we underestimate how many voters make their decisions in the final week and how much the final major news event of a campaign can influence the outcome.

[Alben Barkley]

I think this is right.  Also, Romney might have won the PV.  Because this is a site for political enthusiasts, we underestimate how many voters make their decisions in the final week and how much the final major news event of a campaign can influence the outcome.

Uh… it’s not more than 5 million voters across the US (Obama NPV margin of victory), I can tell you that much. Especially since most were not affected by the event and have no particular reason for it to affect their vote. It probably is why New York and New Jersey were two of the few states where Obama saw significant improvement over his 2008 numbers, but beyond that I seriously doubt it had much impact beyond that, let alone to this degree.

[Skill and Chance]

I think this is right.  Also, Romney might have won the PV.  Because this is a site for political enthusiasts, we underestimate how many voters make their decisions in the final week and how much the final major news event of a campaign can influence the outcome.

Uh… it’s not more than 5 million voters across the US (Obama NPV margin of victory), I can tell you that much. Especially since most were not affected by the event and have no particular reason for it to affect their vote. It probably is why New York and New Jersey were two of the few states where Obama saw significant improvement over his 2008 numbers, but beyond that I seriously doubt it had much impact beyond that, let alone to this degree.

In most elections, polling shows >1/10 voters make up their minds in October or later. 

[If my soul was made of stone]

The storm clearly helped Obama overperform in New York and New Jersey, and possibly other states in the broader Northeast, but I highly doubt that it was a salient issue elsewhere to the point that it could affect the Electoral College.

Given how close it was, Florida is the only state I could see going to Romney without the Hurricane. Other than that, the map stays the same.

Florida was lost on all the talk of "Medicare vouchers", not anything happening on the Jersey Shore.

[Skill and Chance]

The storm clearly helped Obama overperform in New York and New Jersey, and possibly other states in the broader Northeast, but I highly doubt that it was a salient issue elsewhere to the point that it could affect the Electoral College.

Given how close it was, Florida is the only state I could see going to Romney without the Hurricane. Other than that, the map stays the same.

Florida was lost on all the talk of "Medicare vouchers", not anything happening on the Jersey Shore.

I would suggest that hurricane response is an issue that would sway more voters in Florida than just about anywhere else, even when the storm hit a different state.  The idea that Obama wasn't supposed to win Florida and then picked up votes at the last minute makes a lot of sense to me and could explain why the state was so mischaracterized as trending Dem after 2012.

It's an issue that Florida has been known to swing on in the past.  Strong hurricane response clearly helped Bush to his 5% win in 2004 and helped Rick Scott get the senate upset in 2018.