Final prediction poll: VA-GOV 2021

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, Atlas?
Remember, only vote your FINAL prediction plz

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac 4-7.

[_.]

There are like five of these man

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are like five of these man

Let the other poll stand as a specimen of what Atlas thought of the race a few days ago.
Sentiments have changed now, that makes it especially fitting we have a new poll to befit that.

[Non Swing Voter]

There are like five of these man

He wanted a more current version because people have changed their minds since the last one.

[_.]

There are like five of these man

Let the other poll stand as a specimen of what Atlas thought of the race a few days ago.
Sentiments have changed now, that makes it especially fitting we have a new poll to befit that.

There are like five of these man

He wanted a more current version because people have changed their minds since the last one.

Ah, thanks, I'd thought the other polls were created later.

I'll go McAuliffe+6

[LabourJersey]

I originally said T-Mac will win by 5. Revised that down to T-Mac winning by 2.

The race is tight but I think early voting will keep him narrowly up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are like five of these man

Let the other poll stand as a specimen of what Atlas thought of the race a few days ago.
Sentiments have changed now, that makes it especially fitting we have a new poll to befit that.

There are like five of these man

He wanted a more current version because people have changed their minds since the last one.

Ah, thanks, I'd thought the other polls were created later.

One difference you notice is that I split the "Tie" option in 2.
This is to get a concise number of how many people thought Youngkin would win vs how many thought T-Mac would.

[Alben Barkley]

I think it's very unlikely either candidate wins by 4-7 or more. I think less than 1 either way is more likely. I went with Youngkin 1-3 as of now, but I'm really not sure. Just about anything from McAuliffe +3 to Youngkin +3 seems plausible.

[BigSerg]

I need the last Quinnipiac poll, but we can do a new poll on Monday. My prediction is McAuliffe +2.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I need the last Quinnipiac poll, but we can do a new poll on Monday. My prediction is McAuliffe +2.

Remember, only vote your FINAL prediction.

[SnowLabrador]

Youngkin +3.

[beesley]

I think it's very unlikely either candidate wins by 4-7 or more. I think less than 1 either way is more likely. I went with Youngkin 1-3 as of now, but I'm really not sure. Just about anything from McAuliffe +3 to Youngkin +3 seems plausible.

I think this is a pretty fair take that I agree with.

[Not Me, Us]

McAuliffe+3 I think. Atlas is bedwetting as usual, and though I don’t disagree that the race has narrowed, McAuliffe wins or I leave the forum for a year.

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe+3 I think. Atlas is bedwetting as usual, and though I don’t disagree that the race has narrowed, McAuliffe wins or I leave the forum for a year.

This is obviously the correct take.

[Alben Barkley]

McAuliffe+3 I think. Atlas is bedwetting as usual, and though I don’t disagree that the race has narrowed, McAuliffe wins or I leave the forum for a year.

Well now you’ve done it. Any time anyone makes one of these pledges, the thing they are sure won’t happen happens.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Per 538's average, it's:

Youngkin 47.6%
McAuliffe 47.0%


But it's a D+10 state, and I assume, that the rest are mostly reluctant Democrats, and so I think, that the undeciders will go 80/20 towards D/R. It will get

Youngkin 48.7%
McAuliffe 51.3%

which is my final prediction.

[Buzz]

T-Mac by 3.1.  It’s Virginia

[Non Swing Voter]

McAuliffe+3 I think. Atlas is bedwetting as usual, and though I don’t disagree that the race has narrowed, McAuliffe wins or I leave the forum for a year.

Well now you’ve done it. Any time anyone makes one of these pledges, the thing they are sure won’t happen happens.

someone made the opposite pledge though.

[Mr.Phips]

Youngkin +3.

Basically where I am.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

At this point I’m saying Youngkin by <1%. Youngkin has the late momentum and the TMac campaign is making error after error. Sure, Virginia is a blue state. But even in these polarized times, there are still races every year where gubernatorial candidates outrun the partisanship of their states (see SD-Gov and MD-Gov 2018, KY-Gov 2019). Factor in that Virginia is nowhere near as safe as any of those states and the fact that Dems are in a slump right now, and I don’t see why a Republican victory is unbelievable.

[Duke of York]

Youngkin by 1

[lfromnj]

T-Mac by 4.

[😥]

This is like third thread about final prediction for VA-Gov, isn't it? Youngkin +1.5

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm thinking T-Mac by 4%.