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June 18, 2024, 06:21:54 PM
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Poll
Question: Rate the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Election
#1
Safe McAuliffe
#2
Likely McAuliffe
#3
Lean McAuliffe
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt McAuliffe
#5
Toss-Up/Tilt Youngkin
#6
Lean Youngkin
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Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate Virginia  (Read 2465 times)
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Computer89
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E: 3.42, S: 2.61

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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2021, 04:33:40 PM »
Tilt R, Youngkin by 1.5
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Thunder98
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2021, 04:55:50 PM »
Final Prediction, Youngkin +2
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Spectator
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2021, 05:45:29 PM »
Safe D, McAuliffe by 1
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Chips
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2021, 05:50:52 PM »
I myself am now quite conflicted. There's so many different factors.

I have decided that I will change my prediction to a slight Youngkin win if there isn't any poll that comes out tomorrow that shows anything better than an tie or +1 for McAuliffe.

There hasn't been a single likely voter poll conducted since October 21st that has had McAuliffe up by more than a single point up to now. This is a rather important thing to keep in mind.

This is legit a race that could easily go either way now I feel.
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Abdullah
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2021, 06:21:37 PM »
FINAL PREDICTION

LIKELY McAULIFFE: D+5

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for gubernatorial races


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[D] Terry McAuliffe - 1.83 Million Votes - 52% ✔️
[R] Glenn Youngkin - 1.66 Million Votes - 47%


Notable Counties and Cities:

D+34 - Fairfax County
D+18 - Prince William County
D+6 - Virginia Beach
D+16 - Loudoun County
D+6 - Chesterfield County
D+29 - Henrico County
D+7 - Chesapeake
D+56 - Arlington County
D+47 - Norfolk
D+68 - Richmond
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2021, 06:27:22 PM »

What's got you so bullish on T-Mac?
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Abdullah
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2021, 06:32:34 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2021, 06:43:32 PM by YOU JUST POSTED MALARKEY! »

Rain in SWVA...

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.
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Chips
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2021, 06:34:13 PM »
Quote from: YOU JUST POSTED MALARKEY! on November 01, 2021, 06:21:37 PM
FINAL PREDICTION

LIKELY McAULIFFE: D+5

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for gubernatorial races


Image Link

[D] Terry McAuliffe - 1.83 Million Votes - 52% ✔️
[R] Glenn Youngkin - 1.66 Million Votes - 47%


Notable Counties and Cities:

D+34 - Fairfax County
D+18 - Prince William County
D+6 - Virginia Beach
D+16 - Loudoun County
D+6 - Chesterfield County
D+29 - Henrico County
D+7 - Chesapeake
D+56 - Arlington County
D+47 - Norfolk
D+68 - Richmond

I now starting to think McAuliffe+5 is within the upper realm of possibilities for him but it's still possible.

Also, I find it interesting you got Radford going for Youngkin while McAuliffe is winning by this much.
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DANNT
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2021, 06:44:30 PM »
TMac +2.5
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Abdullah
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2021, 06:48:31 PM »
Quote from: Chips on November 01, 2021, 06:34:13 PM
Quote from: YOU JUST POSTED MALARKEY! on November 01, 2021, 06:21:37 PM
FINAL PREDICTION

LIKELY McAULIFFE: D+5

Map uses Wikipedia color scheme for gubernatorial races


Image Link

[D] Terry McAuliffe - 1.83 Million Votes - 52% ✔️
[R] Glenn Youngkin - 1.66 Million Votes - 47%


Notable Counties and Cities:

D+34 - Fairfax County
D+18 - Prince William County
D+6 - Virginia Beach
D+16 - Loudoun County
D+6 - Chesterfield County
D+29 - Henrico County
D+7 - Chesapeake
D+56 - Arlington County
D+47 - Norfolk
D+68 - Richmond

I now starting to think McAuliffe+5 is within the upper realm of possibilities for him but it's still possible.

Also, I find it interesting you got Radford going for Youngkin while McAuliffe is winning by this much.

Well, if you dig into the crosstabs of some of these polls, what you'll find is massive Youngkin overperformances in Southwestern Virginia and among White Virginians (as well as interestingly McAuliffe overperformances in Tidewater and the I-95 corridor), so I adjusted the margins accordingly
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Politics Fan
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2021, 07:22:42 PM »
Final prediction T-MAC by 1.5. Election isn’t called until after midnight est

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2021, 07:38:49 PM »
I think it's extremely close, but if forced to choose I'll pick Youngkin.  There are many conflicting factors at play here, so I think most of them will cancel each other out.  That brings me back to the long history of the Virginia governor's race going against the party in the White House, so I'll go with that.  But I will not be surprised by any outcome that's in single digits either way.
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Continential
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2021, 07:52:06 PM »
Tilt McAuliffe but I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin wins, but if he wins, I expect Ayala and Herring to win.
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AGA
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2021, 08:16:02 PM »
Tilt D with McAuliffe winning by around 2.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2021, 08:19:25 PM »
Come on lol

Lean Youngkin

Stop denying it. Let’s accept it and do better next time
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2021, 09:11:25 PM »
Tilt D McAuliffe +1.6
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Thunder98
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2021, 11:45:47 PM »

Almost spot on!
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