Roanoke: McAuliffe +1

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1454429054107541511?t=vMrQWsYpBEgnUR5Bn-U...

[ElectionsGuy]

This was McAuliffe +8 in August and +7 in September.

[Person Man]

I can buy that this will be a squeaker. They were tied in their final poll in 2017. Given the evidence, I think the 538 tracker is correct.

[wbrocks67]

This is a good way to se whee what's going on -

Republicans hold an advantage in being extremely enthusiastic about voting (49% to 32% for Democrats), while most partisans say they are almost certain to vote or have already voted (76% of Republicans vs. 77% of Democrats)

This is why the enthusiastic question means nothing for either side - whoever is leading. The latter question is what matters. Just because you're not enthusiastic doesn't mean you're not going to 100% vote. I could be the most unenthusiastic person in the world - but that doesn't mean I miss a single election!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

6 point swing from Sep.


Ayala 46
Sears 44

Herring 46
Miyares 45


Favs:
McAuliffe 44/43
Youngkin 45/37
Trump 37/54


Approval:
Biden 44/50

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This is a good way to se whee what's going on -

Republicans hold an advantage in being extremely enthusiastic about voting (49% to 32% for Democrats), while most partisans say they are almost certain to vote or have already voted (76% of Republicans vs. 77% of Democrats)

This is why the enthusiastic question means nothing for either side - whoever is leading. The latter question is what matters. Just because you're not enthusiastic doesn't mean you're not going to 100% vote. I could be the most unenthusiastic person in the world - but that doesn't mean I miss a single election!

Yes, and they don't use "enthusiam" as likely voters screen nor to weight the results. So your "findings" are actually a bad news for T-Mac if anything. You has overunskewed this 

Likely voters were defined as those registered to vote in Virginia who are extremely likely or very likely to vote or have already voted in the November elections.

The data were statistically weighted for gender, race and education. Weighting was done to match the modeled general and race demographics of the 2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Election.

They weighted after 2017 Gov, though. Hm...

[wbrocks67]

6 point swing from Sep.


Ayala 46
Sears 44

Herring 46
Miyares 45


Favs:
McAuliffe 44/43
Youngkin 45/37
Trump 37/54


Approval:
Biden 44/50

6pt swing makes sense since the September poll had Biden's approval at 50/45, and this one is 44/50. Given it swung 11 pts, 6 pt drop could... be worse for T-Mac here tbh

[Chips]

Seems in line with just about every other poll we've seen over the past week or so.

[Alben Barkley]

Toss-up/Tilt R looks to be my final rating I think.

[Senator Incitatus]

Definitely Tilt R, willing to call this Lean if McAuliffe doesn't get at least one good poll before Tuesday.

Youngkin now clearly has a slight polling lead and has all the last-second momentum in the world. McAuliffe hasn't had a credible independent poll (i.e. excluding that weird VCU one) better than +1 in two and a half weeks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Toss-up/Tilt R looks to be my final rating I think.

You wish VBM not same day is gonna come in for Twrry

[Senator Incitatus]

Worth noting that this took two weeks and has a ±4.1% MoE. Wish they had broken down by week but that sample is far too small.   

[Alben Barkley]

Toss-up/Tilt R looks to be my final rating I think.

You wish VBM not same day is gonna come in for Twrry

Why would I wish? I support T-Mac, I just now think he’s very slightly more likely to lose than win, but it’s a toss-up that could go either way.