VA-echelon- Youngkin +3

[jamestroll]

Or screaming defund police

[Mr.Phips]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014? 

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

It didn’t help that Biden ran a campaign based on getting Republicans to vote for him.  That gave many swing voters an excuse to vote Republican downballot.  Dems need to never nominate a candidate like him for President again.

[Person Man]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014?  

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

They are in still better shape than they were in 2010. It was a confluence of reasons why Republicans held congress between 1994 and 2006 and why Republicans struggled in Congress until 1994. Between Republicans winning all but one race and half the party voting with the GOP anyways, there is no reason to believe that we are nearing the death of the Democratic Party but underperforming by 13 points (I’m thinking 51-48 Youngkin) can’t bode well though in 2019, the Republicans underperformed by 25 and still almost won in 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014? 

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

They are in still better shape than they were in 2010. It was a confluence of reasons why Republicans held congress between 1994 and 2006 and why Republicans struggled in Congress until 1994. Between Republicans winning all but one race and half the party voting with the GOP anyways, there are now reasons to believe that we are nearing the death of the Democratic Party but underperforming by 15 points can’t bode well though in 2019, the Republicans underperformed by 25 and still almost won in 2020.

Will they be in better shape in 2022 than they were in 2010?  I doubt it.  Like I said, the floor keeps dropping for Dems. We thought 1994 was the floor in the House and it dropped further in 2010.  We then thought 2010 was the floor and then dropped further in 2014.  Is 2014 the floor or will Dems drop even further yet again?  Where is the bottom?

[Person Man]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014?  

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

They are in still better shape than they were in 2010. It was a confluence of reasons why Republicans held congress between 1994 and 2006 and why Republicans struggled in Congress until 1994. Between Republicans winning all but one race and half the party voting with the GOP anyways, there are now reasons to believe that we are nearing the death of the Democratic Party but underperforming by 15 points can’t bode well though in 2019, the Republicans underperformed by 25 and still almost won in 2020.

Will they be in better shape in 2022 than they were in 2010?  I doubt it.  Like I said, the floor keeps dropping for Dems. We thought 1994 was the floor in the House and it dropped further in 2010.  We then thought 2010 was the floor and then dropped further in 2014.  Is 2014 the floor or will Dems drop even further yet again?  Where is the bottom?

The Republicans had total control of 3 states in 1991. In 2019, we have 236 seats, in 2007, we had 233.  Otoh, There is no need for a national  Democratic Party without a functioning VDP since if we’re not winning VA, we’re definitely not winning GA, FL, or NC. Colorado and Arizona can make up for losing Iowa and Ohio, but without Virginia, that’s not enough. Democrats need Virginia.

[wbrocks67]

McAuliffe only winning women by 2 certainly would be something

[Alben Barkley]

Youngkin now has the lead on the FiveThirtyEight tracker.

[Alben Barkley]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014? 

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

It didn’t help that Biden ran a campaign based on getting Republicans to vote for him.  That gave many swing voters an excuse to vote Republican downballot.  Dems need to never nominate a candidate like him for President again.

Not only did he win the election and overperform most downballot Dems, his strategy of targeting swing/traditionally R suburban voters is the very reason he won. There were MANY ballots in states like WI and GA that either voted Biden but straight R down ticket or left the top line blank but voted straight R down ticket. Those ballots alone cost Trump the election.

Absolutely insane to say Dems shouldn't nominate a candidate like Biden again because he won with a successful strategy. And apparently he was the ONLY Dem who had enough appeal to get a lot of today's swing voters to actually cast ballots for him. Why the HELL would we ditch that??? What was the alternative? Go full "progressive" and rely on the most notoriously unreliable group of voters, young people, to turn out in droves like Bernie and George F--king McGovern tried? Go all-in on trying to win back the rural WWC which has sped away from Dems and is not coming back in any sizable numbers any time soon no matter what?

No.

The sensible strategy was to make a play for suburban voters in D-trending states. And it WORKED. It's not Biden's fault if downballot Dems couldn't make it work as well. But then again, looking specifically at states like AZ and GA where we swept all the Senate seats, it still could have been a lot worse. Spanberger and such got scares too but still held on. It didn't go as well as it was supposed to, but the reasons for this are NOT what you are claiming. Your theory relies on the ridiculous assumption that it was a choice between turning out Biden/R voters and Biden/D voters, when the real choice was between turning out Biden/R voters and Trump/R voters in many cases.

[Alben Barkley]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014?  

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

They are in still better shape than they were in 2010. It was a confluence of reasons why Republicans held congress between 1994 and 2006 and why Republicans struggled in Congress until 1994. Between Republicans winning all but one race and half the party voting with the GOP anyways, there are now reasons to believe that we are nearing the death of the Democratic Party but underperforming by 15 points can’t bode well though in 2019, the Republicans underperformed by 25 and still almost won in 2020.

Will they be in better shape in 2022 than they were in 2010?  I doubt it.  Like I said, the floor keeps dropping for Dems. We thought 1994 was the floor in the House and it dropped further in 2010.  We then thought 2010 was the floor and then dropped further in 2014.  Is 2014 the floor or will Dems drop even further yet again?  Where is the bottom?

The Republicans had total control of 3 states in 1991. In 2019, we have 236 seats, in 2007, we had 233.  Otoh, There is no need for a national  Democratic Party without a functioning VDP since if we’re not winning VA, we’re definitely not winning GA, FL, or NC. Colorado and Arizona can make up for losing Iowa and Ohio, but without Virginia, that’s not enough. Democrats need Virginia.

VA is still safe D at the presidential level (and probably at the federal level in general, Senate races included) no matter what happens in the gubernatorial race. This is like saying Trump or McConnell could have lost KY because Beshear won.

Unless I misunderstand your point and you're talking just about state elections, but how then could CO and AZ "make up" for IA and OH like that?

[Person Man]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014?  

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

They are in still better shape than they were in 2010. It was a confluence of reasons why Republicans held congress between 1994 and 2006 and why Republicans struggled in Congress until 1994. Between Republicans winning all but one race and half the party voting with the GOP anyways, there are now reasons to believe that we are nearing the death of the Democratic Party but underperforming by 15 points can’t bode well though in 2019, the Republicans underperformed by 25 and still almost won in 2020.

Will they be in better shape in 2022 than they were in 2010?  I doubt it.  Like I said, the floor keeps dropping for Dems. We thought 1994 was the floor in the House and it dropped further in 2010.  We then thought 2010 was the floor and then dropped further in 2014.  Is 2014 the floor or will Dems drop even further yet again?  Where is the bottom?

The Republicans had total control of 3 states in 1991. In 2019, we have 236 seats, in 2007, we had 233.  Otoh, There is no need for a national  Democratic Party without a functioning VDP since if we’re not winning VA, we’re definitely not winning GA, FL, or NC. Colorado and Arizona can make up for losing Iowa and Ohio, but without Virginia, that’s not enough. Democrats need Virginia.

VA is still safe D at the presidential level (and probably at the federal level in general, Senate races included) no matter what happens in the gubernatorial race. This is like saying Trump or McConnell could have lost KY because Beshear won.

Unless I misunderstand your point and you're talking just about state elections, but how then could CO and AZ "make up" for IA and OH like that?

I was just conjecturing how if Virginia became more elastic, it would be hard to continue to compete at the federal level. States matter more and more now anyways with SCOTUS being effectively packed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't live in VA I don't care if TMac loses we still win EC college WI, pza and MI gets us to 265 and AZ, GA or VA gets us over 270/ some think that WI gets us over 270 but it's VA, AZ or GA