VA-echelon- Youngkin +3

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1454156372636061697

[BigSerg]

Asssssssss

[Skill and Chance]

This was a poll that consistently overestimated Biden in 2020 despite the Republican affiliation.

Interesting that it's Youngkin>Sears>Miyares>HoD.  R's have held up best downballot in the recent past. 

[Duke of York]

Calling all three statewide elections for the Republicans at this point

[Mr.Phips]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

[Woody]

I am still sceptical of Youngkin winning. But this is a race I would be more than happy to be wrong.

[Duke of York]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

[Mr.Phips]

I am still sceptical of Youngkin winning. But this is a race I would be more than happy to be wrong.

Youngkin’s gonna win so you’re gonna be happy.

[Mr.Phips]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

[Person Man]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

That's why Republicans were in a permanent minority status between 1968 and 1994. They went 5-1 in Presidential elections.

[jamestroll]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

and going forward really..

[Duke of York]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

That's why Republicans were in a permanent minority status between 1968 and 1994. They went 1-5 in Presidential elections.

Things were different then

[Duke of York]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

and going forward really..

Stop. Your being ridiculous

[kwabbit]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

That's why Republicans were in a permanent minority status between 1968 and 1994. They went 1-5 in Presidential elections.

Congress from 1932 to 1994 was dominated by Democrats regardless of the presidency because they were a massive tent that included the entire South + half of the rest of the country. Even when conservatism was popular, the Dems still had the House locked up because of the conservadems in the South.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

That's why Republicans were in a permanent minority status between 1968 and 1994. They went 1-5 in Presidential elections.

You mean 5-1

[Senator Incitatus]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

That's why Republicans were in a permanent minority status between 1968 and 1994. They went 1-5 in Presidential elections.

You mean 5-1

You mean 5-2.

[Chips]

I will once again go on the record and say that neither side should get overconfident about this race.

That being said, I will give the GOP that I would definitely be sweating a bit if I were McAuliffe right now.

[jamestroll]

safe r

[Xing]

Still predicting a narrow McAuliffe win, but Democrats are showing their incompetence at messaging again. If McAuliffe really does lose, this will just be another entry in a list of dozens of races that Democrats had no business losing but lost anyway. The Republican strategy of not offering any good faith solutions to key issues and instead basically just arguing that Democrats are crazy should not work as well as it does, but Democrats have somehow never figured out how to run against this, except in very rare cases.

[President Johnson]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MOE insignificant

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

Even in 1998 , republicans still controlled both houses of congress which probably limited them from making gains to begin with .

[Mr.Phips]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014? 

[President Johnson]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014? 

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

[jamestroll]

Yep Dems really screwed this up.  This election is pretty much going to wipe out their bench here.

2022 is going to be an utter disaster. Calling it now.

At this point it’s safe to assume that any midterm election of a Dem President is going to be a disaster.  People need to stop thinking otherwise and realize that winning the Presidency dooms you to minority in congress, governorships, and state legislatures.

Well, Trump also had a disastrous midterm and downballot races. 1998 and 2002 were the only exceptions in recent history, for unique reasons. Seems like a president of the other party just seems to energize the base of the opposing party that is falling asleep once their own guy is elected. And latter applies more to the Democrats than Republicans. Still too many of them think their mission is accomplished after voting in a presidential election. Part of the problem is also that too many elections take place. The US is de facto in campaign mode for the better part of four years before everything starts all over again.

This has been far worse for Democrats than Republicans.  Republicans quickly recouped their 2006/2008 losses and then some (in 2010) will almost certainly recoup their 2018 loss (they already recouped some in 2020) in 2022.  It took Democrats 12 years to regain congress after losing it in 1994 and then they only held it for four years.  It took Dems eight years to regain the House after losing it in 2010 and are likely to only hold it for four years.  Another concern is that the Dem floor in the House and state legislatures continues to drop further than the last wave did after every wave against them.  2010 dropped them lower than 1994 and 2014 dropped them lower than 2010.  Will 2022 drop them lower than 2014? 

Agreed, and 2010 had some butterfly effects since redistricting weakened their long term prospects. I feel like that midterm is still haunting them. Unfortunately 2020 was a missed chance as well. Things would be different now if 2020 was the up and down the ticket landslide that seemed possible ahead of the election.

maybe if the democrats weren't screaming "STAY HOME UNTIL COVID ZERO!!" they would have done better.