IL-06: Casten vs. Newman?

[Donerail]

Must be remembered that Casten won a contested primary in 2018 with slightly under 30% — not exactly an electoral juggernaut

[Donerail]

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.

That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

[Donerail]

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.

That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

Maybe they will after the big money groups move in, possibly coordinated by the IL machine, and the area is showered with ads proclaiming that Newman supports The Squad, Defunding the Police, Hamas terrorists, CRT, transgender creeps raping their children, etc.

Seems like explicitly running that kind of campaign would backfire in a Democratic primary. I could see Republicans doing that in an attempt to pull a reverse McCaskill, but there's no guarantee it would work (in the primary or the general).

Especially given the (well-publicized, so there's really no excuse) reason Newman is particularly sensitive to trans issues. May as well directly attack her family, see how far that'll get you in the primary.