IL-06: Casten vs. Newman?
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  IL-06: Casten vs. Newman?
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Author Topic: IL-06: Casten vs. Newman?  (Read 4986 times)
Gracile
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« on: October 29, 2021, 11:32:57 AM »

Thought this was relevant here. Marie Newman has announced that she will run in the newly drawn IL-06 where Sean Casten resides-



Newman does not live in this district, but her home is a stone's throw away and contains much of her former district (in fact, geographically the plurality of this district's residents are from the old IL-03).

Thoughts on this potential primary?
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Skunk
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2021, 11:34:40 AM »

Should be close either way, I've already seen takes on Twitter about Casten trouncing Newman or vice versa but I don't really see how that'd happen. Rooting for Newman but won't be too upset if she loses.
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Joseph Cao
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2021, 11:39:11 AM »

Too evenly divided between Newman- and Casten-friendly turf to be a blowout either way unless one of them totally implodes. I guess this early out my gut says Newman but we'll need a few more months to see properly.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2021, 11:49:03 AM »

Maybe one of them jumps in the race to replace Jesse White instead?
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2021, 11:57:40 AM »

I hope Casten wins, but anyway race will be very close
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AMB1996
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2021, 12:11:51 PM »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2021, 12:16:27 PM »

I hope Casten wins, but anyway race will be very close
Probably.
I too support Casten, but I wouldn't predict a blowout for either one of them.
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leecannon
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2021, 12:33:38 PM »

I’d give Newman the edge as a lot of her base is in this district plus she has lots of ties and fundraising ability and the rare experience of ousting an incumbent before
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Sestak
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2021, 01:51:43 PM »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.

Could be wrong but I believe the Hispanic areas in which Lipinski performed the strongest are not in this new district.
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Gracile
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2021, 02:57:24 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2021, 03:01:13 PM by gracile »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.

Could be wrong but I believe the Hispanic areas in which Lipinski performed the strongest are not in this new district.

It's kind of a wash in that regard. They also got rid of some of Newman's best parts of the city in Bridgeport and kept in Mount Greenwood and Clearing precincts that Lipinski performed well in. Obviously, the dynamics are much different against Casten (I do think she could get at least somewhat of an incumbency boost among certain demographics from her old district - specifically the remaining Hispanic and Arab communities) and much of the new territory added in is up for grabs.
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Donerail
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2021, 03:14:07 PM »

Must be remembered that Casten won a contested primary in 2018 with slightly under 30% — not exactly an electoral juggernaut
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Horus
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2021, 03:38:05 PM »

Both have rather annoying personalities but I'm supporting Newman here. Casten is just too elitist and his gaffes make the party look bad.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2021, 10:31:14 PM »

Newman is one of the Hamas Nine, so I'm hoping to see powerhouse groups jump into this race to ensure she loses her seat. Too many of the others are probably safe, but setting an example is essential.
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beesley
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2021, 02:23:24 AM »

I think whilst in the grand scheme of things it's fairly equal, Newman definitely represents more of the district. I'd give the edge and my support to her.
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VPH
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2021, 09:26:58 AM »

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2021, 10:55:24 AM »

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2021, 12:07:43 PM »

Baffling. Rooting for Newman but Casten has been fine enough
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Donerail
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2021, 12:48:19 PM »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.
That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?
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compucomp
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2021, 01:12:57 PM »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.
That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

Maybe they will after the big money groups move in, possibly coordinated by the IL machine, and the area is showered with ads proclaiming that Newman supports The Squad, Defunding the Police, Hamas terrorists, CRT, transgender creeps raping their children, etc.
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VPH
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2021, 01:13:37 PM »

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.
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Figueira
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2021, 01:23:08 PM »

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

"Far left" in this case meaning not being a homophobe?
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Figueira
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2021, 01:25:49 PM »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.
That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

Maybe they will after the big money groups move in, possibly coordinated by the IL machine, and the area is showered with ads proclaiming that Newman supports The Squad, Defunding the Police, Hamas terrorists, CRT, transgender creeps raping their children, etc.

Seems like explicitly running that kind of campaign would backfire in a Democratic primary. I could see Republicans doing that in an attempt to pull a reverse McCaskill, but there's no guarantee it would work (in the primary or the general).
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2021, 02:03:09 PM »

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

"Far left" in this case meaning not being a homophobe?

I think if we try really hard, we can find a candidate who supports a woman's right to choose, gay people's right to marry and be treated like any other citizen, and also opposes Jewish children having rockets shot at them.

Hey, I wonder about this Sean Casten guy.
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Gracile
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2021, 02:05:41 PM »

The people complaining about supporting "Hamas terrorists" as a major liability have clearly never been to the Southwest burbs.
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Donerail
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2021, 02:48:50 PM »

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.
That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

Maybe they will after the big money groups move in, possibly coordinated by the IL machine, and the area is showered with ads proclaiming that Newman supports The Squad, Defunding the Police, Hamas terrorists, CRT, transgender creeps raping their children, etc.

Seems like explicitly running that kind of campaign would backfire in a Democratic primary. I could see Republicans doing that in an attempt to pull a reverse McCaskill, but there's no guarantee it would work (in the primary or the general).
Especially given the (well-publicized, so there's really no excuse) reason Newman is particularly sensitive to trans issues. May as well directly attack her family, see how far that'll get you in the primary.
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