IL-06: Casten vs. Newman?

[brucejoel99]

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

A conservadem was a better fit for a D+6 district than a liberal who, need it be reminded, literally beat him in the district!?

Ok, sure Jan.

[Figueira]

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

"Far left" in this case meaning not being a homophobe?

I think if we try really hard, we can find a candidate who supports a woman's right to choose, gay people's right to marry and be treated like any other citizen, and also opposes Jewish children having rockets shot at them.

Hey, I wonder about this Sean Casten guy.

I'm not opposed to Casten and I don't know how I would vote if I lived in this district, if this ends up being the primary.

[beesley]

If you believe Lipinski lost his primary because of poor representation of his constituents (on the issues or otherwise), which to me seems fairly objective by any standard, then yes, he became a poor fit for the district (or it would perhaps be more accurate to say the district became a poor fit for him). And if you believe it's because of turnout, that doesn't really refute that.

[compucomp]

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.

That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

Maybe they will after the big money groups move in, possibly coordinated by the IL machine, and the area is showered with ads proclaiming that Newman supports The Squad, Defunding the Police, Hamas terrorists, CRT, transgender creeps raping their children, etc.

Seems like explicitly running that kind of campaign would backfire in a Democratic primary. I could see Republicans doing that in an attempt to pull a reverse McCaskill, but there's no guarantee it would work (in the primary or the general).

Especially given the (well-publicized, so there's really no excuse) reason Newman is particularly sensitive to trans issues. May as well directly attack her family, see how far that'll get you in the primary.

Are you saying that most Democratic primary voters in this district actually agree with defunding the police and all that stuff? We're going to have to agree to disagree. This is not near North Side or West Loop. This is a suburban district, there may be some progressive Democrats out there but it swung left because of Trump.

Let's watch what happens in VA, if suburban NoVA swings against the Democrats to any substantial degree then Newman could be vulnerable to this line of attack. It helps Casten's cause that IL has open primaries and he could try to get some Republicans to vote against Newman.

[Figueira]

Did Newman beat Lipinski the parts of her district that are carrying over? Could see some lingering resentment from his voters doing her in, even if Casten obviously isn't Lipinski.

That is... a bit of an understatement. Are the same people in Clearing or Mt. Greenwood who voted for Lipinski going to vote for a liberal a-theist from DuPage County just because he grades out as five points to the right on some national group's scoring system?

Maybe they will after the big money groups move in, possibly coordinated by the IL machine, and the area is showered with ads proclaiming that Newman supports The Squad, Defunding the Police, Hamas terrorists, CRT, transgender creeps raping their children, etc.

Seems like explicitly running that kind of campaign would backfire in a Democratic primary. I could see Republicans doing that in an attempt to pull a reverse McCaskill, but there's no guarantee it would work (in the primary or the general).

Especially given the (well-publicized, so there's really no excuse) reason Newman is particularly sensitive to trans issues. May as well directly attack her family, see how far that'll get you in the primary.

Are you saying that most Democratic primary voters in this district actually agree with defunding the police and all that stuff? We're going to have to agree to disagree. This is not near North Side or West Loop. This is a suburban district, there may be some progressive Democrats out there but it swung left because of Trump.

Let's watch what happens in VA, if suburban NoVA swings against the Democrats to any substantial degree then Newman could be vulnerable to this line of attack. It helps Casten's cause that IL has open primaries and he could try to get some Republicans to vote against Newman.

It's not that Democratic primary voters necessarily agree with Newman on everything (I'm sure they don't), but using right-wing attacks on someone doesn't make sense in a Democratic primary. It just energizes the progressives that exist in the district to vote for Newman, and makes them hate Casten when they wouldn't otherwise. There are more subtle arguments you can use to get moderates on your side.

[VPH]

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

A conservadem was a better fit for a D+6 district than a liberal who, need it be reminded, literally beat him in the district!?

Ok, sure Jan.

Yes, he barely lost a low turnout primary race where his opponent counted on a TON more institutional Democratic and special interest group support. I don't think either was a perfect fit for the whole district, but he certainly was a better fit for the working-class areas while she represented the wealthier suburbs.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think Casten will win, he's a generic liberal with a technocratic bent which plays much better into the democratic base here than being a squad progressive. Also due to his newsness he seems fairly clean for an illinois democrat so you don't have the normal sleeze attacks to use against him.

[JM1295]

Rooting for Newman here, but Casten isn't like Cuellar level bad and there is a decent chance to get someone progressive elected in IL-03 so I won't be too disappointed either way. I will say that even if Newman is a Justice Democrat though, she isn't really all in with the Squad and doesn't tend to attract the same attention as them. She also seems to be pretty active in her district and with her constituents. I'm interested to see how this primary plays out.

[Canis]

Looks like Lipinski is considering hopping in too
https://twitter.com/DanLipinski/status/1454297534030139395

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Looks like Lipinski is considering hopping in too
https://twitter.com/DanLipinski/status/1454297534030139395

Will this primary end up being as much of a toxic disaster as VA-Gov 2021, it’s a high bar but there’s a chance

[JM1295]

Looks like Lipinski is considering hopping in too
https://twitter.com/DanLipinski/status/1454297534030139395

Wow a potential Newman/Lipinski primary 3 cycles in a row, that's quite the feat. I'm surprised he's even considering running again since most congressmen don't have any issue finding good work and money after they leave office.

[😥]

Looks like Lipinski is considering hopping in too
https://twitter.com/DanLipinski/status/1454297534030139395

Wow, would obviously be my first choice, but I don't think he can win

[Canis]

Looks like Lipinski is considering hopping in too
https://twitter.com/DanLipinski/status/1454297534030139395

Wow a potential Newman/Lipinski primary 3 cycles in a row, that's quite the feat. I'm surprised he's even considering running again since most congressmen don't have any issue finding good work and money after they leave office.

He wrote an article for the American earlier this month reflecting on his time in Congress and his loss and it seems the primary left him a bitter taste in his mouth the end of the article makes it pretty clear he's not done with politics.
https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/10/13/pro-life-democrat-congress-daniel-lipinski-241638

After that press conference—and with the help of the calls, texts and emails that flowed in from many Catholics afterwards—I felt more at peace than I ever imagined possible after a defeat. I had never worked harder on anything in my life than that campaign, and really for the three years leading up to the 2020 primary. I lost a job that was a great honor and privilege. But what I lost was nothing compared to what I have. I was tested by fire, and though I was not perfect through the whole ordeal, in the end I was—and am—Catholic first. I am hopeful, even though I did not succeed, that through my witness more Catholics will come to see that with faith and reason, wisdom from Scripture and tradition, unceasing prayer and God’s grace, we can defeat this culture of contempt and save the American republic.

[I’m not Stu]

What happened to IL-03?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What happened to IL-03?

It's now majority hispanic

[OneJ]

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

A conservadem was a better fit for a D+6 district than a liberal who, need it be reminded, literally beat him in the district!?

Ok, sure Jan.

Yes, he barely lost a low turnout primary race where his opponent counted on a TON more institutional Democratic and special interest group support. I don't think either was a perfect fit for the whole district, but he certainly was a better fit for the working-class areas while she represented the wealthier suburbs.

I mean the thing is that you believe that Lipinski is the better fit overall though. Given that the both of them competed against each other in close races twice tell me that this district is one that is polarized. It really doesn't matter which one is a better fit for the district since neither Lipinski nor Newman are particularly great fits for the district as a whole rather than the areas of it they simply have more appeal in anyway.

Also, here's a reminder that Lipinski voted against Obamacare (albeit 10 years ago) and it looks like he even tried to defend it which I'm not sure is necessarily unpopular in the areas Lipinski won in.

[free my dawg]

Newman needs to get to the 4th. We don't need a chance of Lipinski.

[VPH]

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

A conservadem was a better fit for a D+6 district than a liberal who, need it be reminded, literally beat him in the district!?

Ok, sure Jan.

Yes, he barely lost a low turnout primary race where his opponent counted on a TON more institutional Democratic and special interest group support. I don't think either was a perfect fit for the whole district, but he certainly was a better fit for the working-class areas while she represented the wealthier suburbs.

I mean the thing is that you believe that Lipinski is the better fit overall though. Given that the both of them competed against each other in close races twice tell me that this district is one that is polarized. It really doesn't matter which one is a better fit for the district since neither Lipinski nor Newman are particularly great fits for the district as a whole rather than the areas of it they simply have more appeal in anyway.

Also, here's a reminder that Lipinski voted against Obamacare (albeit 10 years ago) and it looks like he even tried to defend it which I'm not sure is necessarily unpopular in the areas Lipinski won in.

Yes, I still think he's a better representative for the district, even though he's certainly not perfect for it (see the Obamacare thing). You're right that it's polarized. This race is a good example of why I think smaller and more numerous House districts would be good for the country. The working class Bungalow Belt portion of the district, which has diversified quite a bit but remains very Catholic, shouldn't be in the same district as well-off socially liberal suburbs.

[lfromnj]

Newman needs to get to the 4th. We don't need a chance of Lipinski.

You mean the 3rd right?

No way she beats Chuy.

[free my dawg]

Yeah 3rd, my bad. Chuy is great

[H. Ross Peron]

Suddenly I'm a huge Sean Casten fan

Weren't you the one that claimed that Lipinski was an amazing fit for his district? Apparently he wasn't.

Damn right I was. He was a better fit than a far-left Justice Dem who outspent him 2 to 1 with special interest money pouring in from out-of-district, endorsements from multiple local members of Congress and four Presidential candidates, etc.

A conservadem was a better fit for a D+6 district than a liberal who, need it be reminded, literally beat him in the district!?

Ok, sure Jan.

Yes, he barely lost a low turnout primary race where his opponent counted on a TON more institutional Democratic and special interest group support. I don't think either was a perfect fit for the whole district, but he certainly was a better fit for the working-class areas while she represented the wealthier suburbs.

I mean the thing is that you believe that Lipinski is the better fit overall though. Given that the both of them competed against each other in close races twice tell me that this district is one that is polarized. It really doesn't matter which one is a better fit for the district since neither Lipinski nor Newman are particularly great fits for the district as a whole rather than the areas of it they simply have more appeal in anyway.

Also, here's a reminder that Lipinski voted against Obamacare (albeit 10 years ago) and it looks like he even tried to defend it which I'm not sure is necessarily unpopular in the areas Lipinski won in.

Yes, I still think he's a better representative for the district, even though he's certainly not perfect for it (see the Obamacare thing). You're right that it's polarized. This race is a good example of why I think smaller and more numerous House districts would be good for the country. The working class Bungalow Belt portion of the district, which has diversified quite a bit but remains very Catholic, shouldn't be in the same district as well-off socially liberal suburbs.

A Stephen Lynch clone would be a very good fit for this district and Lynch's district is in some ways similar to Lipinski's (ie a mixture of working class white ethnic areas and wealthier suburbs).

[lfromnj]

Also obviously it isn't in the national Democratic party interest to create a homogenous district. Having a district with mixed trends is the best way to make sure it won't fail over the decade. Although individual candidates may prefer it due to primaries.

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Coming as a guy who lives in IL-14 (Love ya' Bill!), I like both Casten and Newman and would be completely happy if either of them wins. However, I personally think that Casten will win re-election.

[Meatball Ron]

Newman needs to get to the 4th. We don't need a chance of Lipinski.

You don't think Lipinski entering would draw votes away from Casten, thereby benefitting Newman?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Newman needs to get to the 4th. We don't need a chance of Lipinski.

You don't think Lipinski entering would draw votes away from Casten, thereby benefitting Newman?

eh he'd probably split the non-college more catholic vote, allowing Casten to win through his base among secular college-educated voters.