VA-Gov(Fox): Youngkin +8 with Likely Voters

[wbrocks67]

I mean, it's definitely an R sample. The LV screen is assuming that Republican turnout is going to be considerably above D turnout.

The true question is just going to be if thats true or not. It seems both sides are engaged, so idk if that's likely.

It also appears to be the first poll that has a decent chunk more Biden supporters crossing over to Youngkin than Trump for T-Mac.

[Matty]

The LV is too tight, but even the RV margin is youngkin +1

Youngkin has the polling trends in his favor

It’s the exact opposite we saw in CA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Told you McAuliffe was more vulnerable than Tester. It’s not too late to send Tester to the Boonies and get rural losses down to 2014 levels, but the McAuliffe campaign doesn’t know what it’s doing, so...

Almost heaven, Youngkin-ginia
Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah River
Life is old there, older than the trees
Younger than the NoVa, that's growin' like a breeze

Country roads, take me home
To the place I belong
Youngkin-ginia, mountain mama
Take me home, country roads

[Xing]

Told you McAuliffe was more vulnerable than Tester. It’s not too late to send Tester to the Boonies and get rural losses down to 2014 levels, but the McAuliffe campaign doesn’t know what it’s doing, so...

Tester would have this race locked down months ago if he were running TMac’s campaign.

Eh, maybe in any other state, but not in the neoliberal populist-hating DC suburbs.

[SnowLabrador]

How the HELL does Youngkin have this much momentum?

[Pollster]

What a time to be alive

[Spectator]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

[NYDem]

Okay, I'm convinced. Tossup.

[Spectator]

I told yall virignia will be a gop state going forward

Reported for trolling

[Holmes]

I told yall virignia will be a gop state going forward

Much like Kansas and Louisiana are now a Democratic states, yes.

[wbrocks67]

Voters under 35 are also not passing their LV screen, either. The RV sample shows T-Mac +21 with that group, but in the LV group, there's not enough of them for the sample.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

This is a major cope.. we now have a democratic president who's approval is in the low 40s.

Wake up.

[wbrocks67]

The LV is too tight, but even the RV margin is youngkin +1

Youngkin has the polling trends in his favor

It’s the exact opposite we saw in CA

the RV makes sense, because if this is actually a T-Mac +1 or +2 race like polls are suggesting, then you'd expect to see Youngkin +1 based on MoE

The RV sample also lines up with what we've seen in VA recently (D+2 sample, exact same as last year)

LV sample clearly too Republican. Youngkin can win, but he's not winning by 8

[wbrocks67]

Should also be noted that the RV sample in their last poll was much more Democratic (D+7) compared to this one (D+2), so also makes sense why Biden approval was higher

[SnowLabrador]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

[Spectator]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

This is a major cope.. we now have a democratic president who's approval is in the low 40s.

Wake up.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275757.0

[wbrocks67]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

Yep, which would be pretty damn disappointing since VA has a lot of college-educated, rational, intelligent people who seem like they wouldn't fall for these tactics.

Somehow GOP has turned crazy lunatics showing up at school board meetings into heroes. Total insanity.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

This is a major cope.. we now have a democratic president who's approval is in the low 40s.

Wake up.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275757.0

a 53-45 poll is very different from a 41-33 one

[BigSerg]

Quinnipiac is next, if they have a similar result, dude this is a landslide

[Pericles]

Is the finding that Youngkin is outrunning Trump by 7 points among registered voters verified by other polls?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

This is a major cope.. we now have a democratic president who's approval is in the low 40s.

Wake up.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275757.0

That doesn't refute my point at all.. Biden is inherently unpopular at the moment, you need to accept that.

Trump is no longer president.

[wbrocks67]

Is the finding that Youngkin is outrunning Trump by 7 points among registered voters verified by other polls?

Well technically Youngkin outrunning Trump by 4 points among RV, as Youngkin is at 48 (T-Mac 47) here.

Honestly the RV # is completely believable given what we've seen over the last 2 weeks. Youngkin +1 would perfectly fit in with tied-T-Mac +2/3 that we've been getting.

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac is next, if they have a similar result, dude this is a landslide

Q-Pac would be quite interesting lol.

I *think* a Roanoke poll is coming tomorrow possibly as well

But that's probably it since CBS/YouGov is not doing any more.

[Spectator]

This is “GILLESPIE IS SURGING” 2.0

This is a major cope.. we now have a democratic president who's approval is in the low 40s.

Wake up.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275757.0

That doesn't refute my point at all.. Biden is inherently unpopular at the moment, you need to accept that.

Trump is no longer president.

If this were any competitive state, I would agree and that Youngkin would win. Fortunately for McAuliffe, the Safe D nature of Virginia is here to save his awful campaign.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is sickening. It seems that their astroturfed culture wars are paying off.

Yep, which would be pretty damn disappointing since VA has a lot of college-educated, rational, intelligent people who seem like they wouldn't fall for these tactics.

Somehow GOP has turned crazy lunatics showing up at school board meetings into heroes. Total insanity.

College educated-voters are, at best, barely less likely to hold stupid/extreme/whoever you put it stances (though the specifics vary wildly) on political issues, all while being probably harder to deprogram, because they have a diploma and that makes many of them think they are actually smarter politically.