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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-Hampton: Gillespie +8
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Author Topic: VA-Hampton: Gillespie +8  (Read 5446 times)
uti2
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« on: October 25, 2017, 03:24:15 pm »

Link.

Gillespie - 41
Northam - 33

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Reluctant Republican
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« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2017, 03:25:34 pm »

Wow. Totally thought this would be a RickRoll. Tongue Seems so out of step with most of the other polls, so I have to assume it's an outlier.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2017, 03:28:30 pm »

This is the same pollster that had Trump beating Hillary in VA. Trash it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2017, 03:29:10 pm »

Northam is almost losing to undecided!
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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2017, 03:29:58 pm »

http://www.hamptonu.edu/cpp/polls/20171024_va_governor_poll/

Trump approval
Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 56%

Also Gillespie appears to be viewed more favorably.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2017, 03:35:48 pm »

Sure.
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2017, 03:36:15 pm »

With the # of undecideds Northam could be up 8 as well.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2017, 03:38:35 pm »

With the # of undecideds Northam could be up 8 as well.
even though this is a terrible poster, this is scary as undecided will break at least 60-40 for Gillespie/northam lol wout t ok
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2017, 03:38:57 pm »

This is the same pollster that had Trump beating Hillary in VA. Trash it.

Trump +3 on October 30.

http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Hampton-University's-CPP-Latest-Poll-Shows-VA-Voter-Shift-from-Clinton-to-Trump-Post-Email-Investigation
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Buckhead Kelly
Patrick97
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« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2017, 03:39:55 pm »

This poll also says that Northam only has 27 percent of whites that same share HRC got in TX.
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#Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2017, 03:42:55 pm »


applying it being 8.4% leaning rep and you have a 0.4 percent Northam win
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2017, 03:49:49 pm »

Excuse me but utter bullsh**t.
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Holmes
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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2017, 03:51:08 pm »

People will be commenting on this one on election night.
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2017, 03:56:19 pm »

I'm saying guys, just run Maxine Waters for President in 2020 if things fall to sh**t for Democrats in the midterms. If you're gonna lose, at least enrage the opposition while doing so to make your opponents' blood pressure spike, cuz that's what our politics is now

Good lord, we get it. But this poll is either horrendously inaccurate or every other pollster is horrendously inaccurate. Since they have a history of iffy results, I'm gonna say your jumping the gun.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2017, 03:56:34 pm »
« Edited: October 25, 2017, 05:15:15 pm by Brittain33 »

I like this poll.
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🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋🌋
DTC
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2017, 03:56:47 pm »

gg it's over folks. pack up your bags. dems arent winning anything (besides illegalville california) until 2058 at least.
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Arch
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« Reply #16 on: October 25, 2017, 04:11:17 pm »

#27% undecided
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Yank2133
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« Reply #17 on: October 25, 2017, 04:16:49 pm »

Hampton is a pretty crappy pollster. These are their numbers two weeks before the primaries.

https://twitter.com/JZTessler/status/923288407102681088

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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2017, 04:20:32 pm »

Did they get Northams name wrong in the poll?
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2017, 04:27:30 pm »

Highly unrealistic outcome. Looks like they just encouraged/bribed lots of Northam voters to say "undecided".
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2017, 04:28:29 pm »

Gillespie is eating this silly poll up no doubt. Let him have his bit of fun, the little hussy.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2017, 04:28:39 pm »

There is no way that 26% of Virginia is undecided at this point lol

While I could see Gillespie eking out a win via doing well in NOVA and doing just well enough in SW Virginia, an 8 point win is way beyond the realm of what is reasonable for Virginia. Maybe Gillespie's ads in Nova are flipping left-leaners to undecided, but will any of those voters actually vote for Gillespie or stay home?

There are some weird questions / responses in this poll as well - does anyone know what is up with 96% of roughly a third of the respondents supporting their home town being a sanctuary city (was this only asked of people who live in sanctuary cities?)?

Similarly, it is really odd that more identify as Democrat than Republican, but when you include two-party leaners the Republicans lead by 12. Has anyone asked this question previously in Virginia, and if so is that consistent? It seems almost backwards to me - I think of Virginia as having a large number of left-leaners, though it is possible those voters mostly identify as Democrats.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2017, 04:40:07 pm »

Who is Ralph Nortdam?

Anyway, this poll is obviously junk, but should we throw it into the average/database?


Keep it out of the database as this outcome is about as likely as pigs learning to fly. If you're constructing a polling average for your own use, giving this poll half or quarter weight might have some merit, but the database can't do that.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2017, 04:40:12 pm »

Who is Ralph Nortdam?

Anyway, this poll is obviously junk, but should we throw it into the average/database?


Did we put the Trump +3 during the election?
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2017, 04:46:44 pm »

I'd add it for posterity.
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