Forumlurker's Final VA Prediction

[It’s so Joever]

THis is what I think the final VA map will look like:



D+3

Youngkin does better than Biden in almost every county obviously, and he makes the race close. His largest overperformances are in Hampton Roads. He also does significantly better in NoVa than Biden, but it is not enough. Richmond is more interesting, and while Youngkin overperforms, he only does so barely. Of the three major metros, Youngkin overperforms most in Hampton Roads and least in Richmond. Needless to say, Youngkin overperforms Trump in the rurals, but turnout losses blunt the impact.

[MT Treasurer]

This looks more like D+6 than D+3.

Also surprised about the order in which you expect Youngkin to outperform Trump in the three big D-trending regions (Hampton Roads, NOVA, Richmond metro).

[It’s so Joever]

This looks more like D+6 than D+3.

Also surprised about the order in which you expect Youngkin to outperform Trump in the three big D-trending regions (Hampton Roads, NOVA, Richmond metro).

I made it with Election Shuffler as a resource, it is D+3 (actually D+2.83)
I had a decent turnout drop in some urban areas and some margin shifts which may be tough to see on here.
(and yes I also had a large turnout drop in SWVA)

[Skill and Chance]

This looks more like D+6 than D+3.

Also surprised about the order in which you expect Youngkin to outperform Trump in the three big D-trending regions (Hampton Roads, NOVA, Richmond metro).

Disagree.  Everything here looks like an R win except for Chesterfield and the >60% margin in Henrico.  McAuliffe won Chesapeake in 2013.  This is basically the low rural turnout in VA-09/VA-06 saves McAuliffe despite Youngkin getting enough everywhere else scenario.   

[MT Treasurer]

This looks more like D+6 than D+3.

Also surprised about the order in which you expect Youngkin to outperform Trump in the three big D-trending regions (Hampton Roads, NOVA, Richmond metro).

Disagree.  Everything here looks like an R win except for Chesterfield and the >60% margin in Henrico.  McAuliffe won Chesapeake in 2013.  This is basically the low rural turnout in VA-09/VA-06 saves McAuliffe despite Youngkin getting enough everywhere else scenario.  

I could see a close race even as McAuliffe (barely) gets >60% in Henrico, but I really don’t envision a scenario in which this race is particularly close if Youngkin can’t win Chesterfield County (even if it’s only a narrow loss). If he can’t get the necessary swing there, he’s even less likely to get the numbers he needs out of Loudoun/Prince William/etc.

I also think the 'elasticity' of the Hampton Roads area is generally exaggerated. It was basically that region (combined with Warner's overperformance in the western part of the state) that cost Gillespie in 2014.

In a D+3 statewide race, I’d expect these county margins:

Chesapeake: R+4
Chesterfield: R+5
Fairfax: D+30
Henrico: D+20
Loudoun: D+15
Prince William: D+15
Stafford: R+10
Virginia Beach: R+4

(note that this already assumes a Republican turnout/enthusiasm advantage — under presidential turnout, this would be closer to D+4/5).

[Non Swing Voter]

THis is what I think the final VA map will look like:



D+3

Youngkin does better than Biden in almost every county obviously, and he makes the race close. His largest overperformances are in Hampton Roads. He also does significantly better in NoVa than Biden, but it is not enough. Richmond is more interesting, and while Youngkin overperforms, he only does so barely. Of the three major metros, Youngkin overperforms most in Hampton Roads and least in Richmond. Needless to say, Youngkin overperforms Trump in the rurals, but turnout losses blunt the impact.

This is a reasonable map.  Youngkin might even get lucky and win Chesterfield.  But this wont be a T-Mac +3 result because most of those blue counties will have higher turnout relative to 2020 than some of the deep red counterparts (as they almost always do in off-years).  If that's the map then T-Mac is winning very comfortably.

[lfromnj]

Aren't Richmond Rs really energized right now?

[Non Swing Voter]

Aren't Richmond Rs really energized right now?

There are Rs in Richmond?

[lfromnj]

Aren't Richmond Rs really energized right now?

There are Rs in Richmond?

Well mostly meant Richmond area Rs. There is still that one precicnt in Richmond which most likely narrowly voted for Trump in 2020 and Stewart as well. It was fairly narrow in 2016 but huge margins for Gillespie.(63% ). If we had precinct results Youngkin should definitely be dominated there. I wouldn't even be shocked to see 70% there.

[It’s so Joever]

Aren't Richmond Rs really energized right now?

What? Where are you getting this from?

[lfromnj]

Aren't Richmond Rs really energized right now?

What? Where are you getting this from?

I am guessing you don't believe the polls due to the early voting which shows Dems as of far are more excited?

Well Hanover County has pretty high turnout, Goochland is 2nd highest in state.
https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-goochland-county-va/
 I can't see any map but it seems to be. Chesterfield is 30% higher than Henrico and this is despite Chesterfield having a slightly lower education rate than Henrico . Even the relatively low education Colonial heights seems to have pretty rock solid turnout.

[Skill and Chance]

This looks more like D+6 than D+3.

Also surprised about the order in which you expect Youngkin to outperform Trump in the three big D-trending regions (Hampton Roads, NOVA, Richmond metro).

Disagree.  Everything here looks like an R win except for Chesterfield and the >60% margin in Henrico.  McAuliffe won Chesapeake in 2013.  This is basically the low rural turnout in VA-09/VA-06 saves McAuliffe despite Youngkin getting enough everywhere else scenario.  

I could see a close race even as McAuliffe (barely) gets >60% in Henrico, but I really don’t envision a scenario in which this race is particularly close if Youngkin can’t win Chesterfield County (even if it’s only a narrow loss). If he can’t get the necessary swing there, he’s even less likely to get the numbers he needs out of Loudoun/Prince William/etc.

I also think the 'elasticity' of the Hampton Roads area is generally exaggerated. It was basically that region (combined with Warner's overperformance in the western part of the state) that cost Gillespie in 2014.

In a D+3 statewide race, I’d expect these county margins:

Chesapeake: R+4
Chesterfield: R+5
Fairfax: D+30
Henrico: D+20
Loudoun: D+15
Prince William: D+15
Stafford: R+10
Virginia Beach: R+4

(note that this already assumes a Republican turnout/enthusiasm advantage — under presidential turnout, this would be closer to D+4/5).

I agree with you on elasticity.  The elasticity in VA is in NOVA and some random rural areas.  Hampton Roads doesn't swing much and neither does Richmond.   

[Non Swing Voter]

Aren't Richmond Rs really energized right now?

What? Where are you getting this from?

I am guessing you don't believe the polls due to the early voting which shows Dems as of far are more excited?

Well Hanover County has pretty high turnout, Goochland is 2nd highest in state.
https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-voting/november-2021-election/locality-goochland-county-va/
 I can't see any map but it seems to be. Chesterfield is 30% higher than Henrico and this is despite Chesterfield having a slightly lower education rate than Henrico . Even the relatively low education Colonial heights seems to have pretty rock solid turnout.

If you believe TargetSmart, they have modeled that the increased turnout in those areas is mostly Dems voting.  In particular they call out Chesterfield.  We'll see, we don't have official party registration in VA but they can model it based on what primary ballot people selected in prior primaries.

[It’s so Joever]

Although I have considered changing my prediction...I  think I will keep it as it is. Yes it's a bit optimistic, but why not be optimistic for once? What's the worst that could happen? (Yeah I just jinxed it, I know)
Will be fun to do an error map.

[Non Swing Voter]

Although I have considered changing my prediction...I  think I will keep it as it is. Yes it's a bit optimistic, but why not be optimistic for once? What's the worst that could happen? (Yeah I just jinxed it, I know)
Will be fun to do an error map.

It's interesting that you have Chesterfield blue but some of the more swingy areas of VA Beach red.  I could see all three going red (slightly) and Youngkin still losing.

[Alben Barkley]

Although I have considered changing my prediction...I  think I will keep it as it is. Yes it's a bit optimistic, but why not be optimistic for once? What's the worst that could happen? (Yeah I just jinxed it, I know)
Will be fun to do an error map.

Sadly I think you did jinx it lol

[Non Swing Voter]

Although I have considered changing my prediction...I  think I will keep it as it is. Yes it's a bit optimistic, but why not be optimistic for once? What's the worst that could happen? (Yeah I just jinxed it, I know)
Will be fun to do an error map.

Sadly I think you did jinx it lol

If 3 people say he jinxed it then it unjinxes it.

[It’s so Joever]

Although I have considered changing my prediction...I  think I will keep it as it is. Yes it's a bit optimistic, but why not be optimistic for once? What's the worst that could happen? (Yeah I just jinxed it, I know)
Will be fun to do an error map.

Imma be a doomer forever now.