My VA prediction

[THG]

I believe that T-Mac does narrowly pull it off but it will be extremely close. Anywhere from a 0.5-3 point victory margin for T-Mac is possible, and is what I’ll predict one last time.

Youngkin winning (while not the most likely scenario)  is far more likely than T-Mac winning by Northam margins. Democratic turnout is abysmal and the energy factor evidently favors Youngkin. However, as someone who knows a fair bit about VA politics and as someone who looks at statewide trends outside of this election, it’s clear that the map for a Republican victory in Virginia is extremely difficult.

Some other quick takes:

- Prince William County votes to the right of Loudon. Youngkin will improve more with Hispanics than he will with UMC Whites in NOVA.

- Youngkin gets better % numbers in Western Virginia than Trump. Not better turnout of course, but similar % margins if not greater.

-Unlike previous Virginia election, Fairfax County reports first this time. Keep that in mind on election day.

- Places like Cheapsake, Chesterfield, and Virginia Beach are close! Based on how black turnout appears to be, I currently have Youngkin very narrowly winning counties like that, but they could absolutely swing either way.

-The HOD flips. Tilt/Lean R.

-Turnout is key. If I underestimated T-Mac in this prediction and you all bump this thread to laugh at me, it’s probably because I likely underestimated Democratic turnout. However, this race has been nationalized for months, and T-Mac brining the entire DNC does indicate to me that his internals aren’t looking amazing. And there’s a reason I keep mentioning black turnout- him bringing in Obama and Abrams of all people would indicate this is a problem to me.

- If I underestimated Dem turnout, T-Mac wins by 4-6 like I previously predicted.

-I don’t know if the election day vote will favor Republicans AS MUCH as in 2020, because Virginia is not traditionally a mail in heavy state. However, I still think the E-Day/in person vote overall favors Republicans by a fair bit.

-If I somehow actually overestimated Dem turnout and underestimated Republican trends, Youngkin is winning this election by a tilt margin. I don’t know how this happens even if it is possible, which is why I don’t see Youngkin winning.

- If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I was extremely pessimistic and skeptical of Youngkin’s chances after a certain election cycle earlier this year, but he’s proving me wrong. I know Virginia politics relatively well however, so I feel confident in this prediction.

[Woody]

Very solid! I agree with everything you wrote, including the part of Loudoun/Prince William. Though I do think that Youngkin will have decisive margin in VA Beach... Chesterfield is the nailbiter
 
I think the key to Youngkin coming close is due to his strength in Hampton Roads, and Fairfax having a more drastic shift right than Loudoun/Prince William, although those two will still be closer margin wise.

[BoiseBoy]

Flip Chesapeake, Montgomery, and Prince Edward, and you have essentially my map.

[It’s so Joever]

Unfortunately I agree tentatively with you. McAuliffe will win this, but it will be embarrassingly tight and the HOD easily could flip. Tilt Traitor might be a bit much, but it’s clear the Traitors can easily win it and Americans really seem to have been taking the HOD for granted.
The enthusiasm factor is not there for the Americans this time around…and early voting numbers are really the only thing positive for Americans at this point. I also would agree with your analysis about PW and Loudoun.
Switch Chesterfield, Surrey, and Montgomery and you have my map roughly.

[THG]

I am moving this race to a pure tossup now.

[Skill and Chance]

I am moving this race to a pure tossup now.

I am actually switching my prediction to Youngkin +5-10.  I do think that if the result stays close, McAuliffe still wins.  Rural turnout is down.  Youngkin either flips the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA/Richmond vote en masse or he doesn't.  For the first time, I think he will.

[THG]

I am moving this race to a pure tossup now.

I am actually switching my prediction to Youngkin +5-10.  I do think that if the result stays close, McAuliffe still wins.  Rural turnout is down.  Youngkin either flips the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA/Richmond vote en masse or he doesn't.  For the first time, I think he will.

Rural turnout is much higher than in 2017, and they vote on election day.

You don’t have to flip the suburbs but you can make improvements there as well as take advantage of lower Democratic turnout.

[Bootes Void]

I am moving this race to a pure tossup now.

I am actually switching my prediction to Youngkin +5-10.  I do think that if the result stays close, McAuliffe still wins.  Rural turnout is down.  Youngkin either flips the Romney-Clinton-Biden NOVA/Richmond vote en masse or he doesn't.  For the first time, I think he will.

Rural turnout is much higher than in 2017, and they vote on election day.

You don’t have to flip the suburbs but you can make improvements there as well as take advantage of lower Democratic turnout.

Turnout by area is fairly consistent election after election.

[It’s so Joever]

I genuinely am confused by how you can look at the turnout numbers and think the race is any different than before? Voters in NoVa are turning out more now, I just don't think you are reading early voting well.