Rate Connecticut 2022

[Woody]

Lamont to announce if he is running or not for re-election by the end of the year:

https://www.wshu.org/news/2021-10-05/lamont-promises-a-re-election-decision-by-the-end-of-the-year

[Non Swing Voter]

Likely D if he runs for re-election.  Does the GOP even have a bench there?  they have no congressmen, and not a lot of local officials with name recognition either.

[ElectionsGuy]

Likely D.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe D

[Xing]

Likely D if Lamont's favorables remain decent and he runs. If he doesn't run, this becomes a potential sleeper race.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D — imagine unironically believing that this is winnable for Republicans (with or without Lamont) but that VA isn’t.

The PPP poll from last week had him ahead by 16/20 points and above 50% among a sample which gave Biden a +5 approval. Polls should be treated with a lot of caution and PPP is certainly far from reliable, but any Democratic candidate would have to be uniquely unpopular (and face an exceptionally skilled opponent) for 'candidate quality' to somehow outweigh the fundamentals of the state, and Lamont isn’t even close to that. He’s going to win even on a very good night for Republicans.

[Xing]

Safe D — imagine unironically believing that this is winnable for Republicans (with or without Lamont) but that VA isn’t.

Almost as crazy as thinking KS-GOV 2018 was winnable for Democrats but OH-GOV 2018 wasn't. Oh wait...

Apples and oranges. New England gubernatorial races have consistently been more favorable for Republicans than in many other blue states. And the fact that CT-GOV 2018 was quite close, even with a subpar Republican candidate in a blue wave and as Democrats won in normally competitive states by more should give people pause. (I was mocked for suggesting that it was more winnable for Republicans than RI-GOV 2018.) If Gillespie had actually come quite close in 2017, I'd be rating VA-GOV 2021 very differently.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D — imagine unironically believing that this is winnable for Republicans (with or without Lamont) but that VA isn’t.

Almost as crazy as thinking KS-GOV 2018 was winnable for Democrats but OH-GOV 2018 wasn't. Oh wait...

If the outgoing OH Republican Governor John Kasich had had approval ratings in the low/high 20s and had been the most unpopular Republican governor in the country, OH-GOV 2018 almost certainly would have flipped to Democrats and undoubtedly would have been "winnable" for them (it was already fairly winnable IRL). Apples and oranges indeed.

Lamont is a relatively popular incumbent in a deep blue state that’s far more Democratic than VA. This isn’t rocket science and there’s no need to overthink it. Axioms like "New England gubernatorial races races have consistently been more favorable for Republicans than in many other blue states" are true until they aren’t (although this has been even less true for CT than other NE states recently). Does anyone believe that the "Kansas always votes for the party out of the White House for Governor" streak would have continued in 2018 without Kobach as the R nominee and Brownback completely mismanaging the state? With the increasing nationalization of gubernatorial races, things aren’t exactly going to get easier for CT Republicans, and I also wouldn’t assume that any GOP state party is going to nominate a candidate like Youngkin (especially given that there’s an actual primary system in most states).

[Xing]

Safe D — imagine unironically believing that this is winnable for Republicans (with or without Lamont) but that VA isn’t.

Almost as crazy as thinking KS-GOV 2018 was winnable for Democrats but OH-GOV 2018 wasn't. Oh wait...

If the outgoing OH Republican Governor John Kasich had had approval ratings in the low/high 20s and had been the most unpopular Republican governor in the country, OH-GOV 2018 almost certainly would have flipped to Democrats and undoubtedly would have been "winnable" for them (it was already fairly winnable IRL). Apples and oranges indeed.

Lamont is a relatively popular incumbent in a deep blue state that’s far more Democratic than VA. This isn’t rocket science and there’s no need to overthink it. Axioms like "New England gubernatorial races races have consistently been more favorable for Republicans than in many other blue states" are true until they aren’t (although this has been even less true for CT than other NE states recently). Does anyone believe that the "Kansas always votes for the party out of the White House for Governor" streak would have continued in 2018 without Kobach as the R nominee and Brownback completely mismanaging the state? With the increasing nationalization of gubernatorial races, things aren’t exactly going to get easier for CT Republicans, and I also wouldn’t assume that any GOP state party is going to nominate a candidate like Youngkin (especially given that there’s an actual primary system in most states).

My point is that assuming universal swing from the 2020 Presidential results is silly, and that there are different dynamics in different states, even if partisanship is winning out more often than not. And is there really evidence of hyper-partisanship winning out in New England states, given that Sununu and Scott won by way more in 2020, rather than their performance trending toward generic R levels? Considering that CT-GOV swung a whole one point to the left from 2014 to 2018, I also don't buy that it's "getting harder" for Republicans to outperform the partisan lean of Connecticut. Note that I'm not saying that Lamont retiring would mean that the race would be a Toss-Up, nor that it would definitely vote to the right of VA-GOV, simply that there would be sleeper potential under the right circumstances for Republicans, whereas an embarrassingly narrow win is about as bad as I can imagine it will get for McAuliffe.

[Woody]

Safe D — imagine unironically believing that this is winnable for Republicans (with or without Lamont) but that VA isn’t.

Almost as crazy as thinking KS-GOV 2018 was winnable for Democrats but OH-GOV 2018 wasn't. Oh wait...

...Lamont is a relatively popular incumbent in a deep blue state that’s far more Democratic than VA.

While that is true, it was not long ago that Lamont was one of the most unpopular governors in the country. Sometimes tied with other clown governors like Kate Brown, David Ige, Gina Raimondo and the rest of the clown car:

https://morningconsult.com/governor-rankings/
https://ctnewsjunkie.com/2019/10/22/20191022_analysis_ned_lamont_is_very_unpopular_why/
https://i95rock.com/ned-lamont-4th-most-unpopular-governor-in-u-s-says-new-poll/

This was just before COVID came. Which really did wonders for his approvals.

[President Johnson]

Safe Democratic.

Even Muhloy managed to win reelection in a climate as bad as 2014. Lamont is lightyears better and more popular. Unless has a major scandal in the meantime, he'll win reelection with ease. It doesn't even look like Republicans have a strong recruit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's looking like it's going to be safe D with Lamont. The Connecticut GOP really f***ed up in 2018, because he could have beaten then and they probably could hold the Governor's Mansion in 2022 if they nominated someone like Boughton instead of Stefanowski.

[Chips]

Likely D. Could maybe become Lean D if Lamont doesn't run.