I mean, it's unreasonable until it's not. The urban working class came through for Obama when the pundits said it was wishful thinking and that he would probably do slightly worse than Kerry in 2012.
In 2016 and 2020, same thing for Trump. In 2016 and even in 2020, he motivated people who everyone else written off as too lazy to vote.
In 2021, if there's an upset, it's that Republicans are becoming able to marry Trump's "Alt-Right" coalition with W's "Neoconservative" coalition around issues such as libertarian ideas surrounding school choice and public health and conservative populist policy on civil rights and the powers of the local armed services. Perhaps the consolidation of state power and a devolution of public responsibilities is attractive to many voters.
Then again, many polls have shown that educated suburban voters have become heavily reliant on physical and human infrastructure as diversity has become a central lynchpin of the community in terms of being able to get able hands and to sell to new customers.
