VA-Cygnal: Tie
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:19:11 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  VA-Cygnal: Tie
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: VA-Cygnal: Tie  (Read 934 times)
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 25, 2021, 07:22:25 AM »

McAuliffe (D) 48
Youngkin (R) 48

http://www.cygn.al/cygnal-poll-youngkin-tied/
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2021, 07:25:46 AM »

Another Republican internal?
Logged
Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2021, 07:41:20 AM »

Yes, even if it's a descent pollster per 538, it's basically an internal, thus it's difficult to get much information out of it. We already know, that polls indicates, it's a close race.

Quote
MEDIA STATEMENT: Cygnal has polled privately in Virginia in 2021 for multiple private Republican stakeholders. The poll released was conducted at Cygnal’s expense for internal testing purposes. No clients were consulted for questions, methodology, or approach. Cygnal chose to release the results of the survey because so much has changed in Virginia since it’s last private polls.

Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2021, 07:47:59 AM »


R-leaning pollster (not an internal, though), but it’s interesting that Democratic-affiliated pollsters don’t feel the need to "counter" all these R polls with the release of their own surveys.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2021, 07:50:28 AM »


R-leaning pollster (not an internal, though), but it’s interesting that Democratic-affiliated pollsters don’t feel the need to "counter" all these R polls with the release of their own surveys.

Why do you think that is?
Logged
crazy jimmie
jamespol
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2021, 08:53:03 AM »

I'm about to roll around on the floor and screaming!!!+

Omg no... trumpkin will win..
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2021, 08:57:21 AM »


R-leaning pollster (not an internal, though), but it’s interesting that Democratic-affiliated pollsters don’t feel the need to "counter" all these R polls with the release of their own surveys.

Why do you think that is?

I wouldn’t read too much into it, it’s just an observation. There were quite a few R polls released in the final two weeks before the 2017 election as well (with all of them showing numbers very similar to the Youngkin vs. McAuliffe race), and we know how that one turned out for the GOP. Back then, there weren’t that many D "counter-polls" either.

Given the partisan lean of the state, it’s not a good sign for Youngkin that he can’t get a clear lead in any of these even in the most R-friendly polls.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,758


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2021, 08:58:46 AM »

This is.... interesting lol

How does this only have Youngkin tied then? lmao

Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2021, 09:01:58 AM »

Ugh, are there so many garbage polls or is it just me not seeing the writing on the wall? I rate VA-gov as Lean or Likely D on margin and Safe D on winning chances.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2021, 09:29:54 AM »

Dems have no reason to push back because the freakout helps turnout efforts and last minute fundraising.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2021, 09:31:03 AM »

Ugh, are there so many garbage polls or is it just me not seeing the writing on the wall? I rate VA-gov as Lean or Likely D on margin and Safe D on winning chances.


Dems have no reason to push back because the freakout helps turnout efforts and last minute fundraising.
Either way, people have to vote.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 25, 2021, 09:36:03 AM »

This is.... interesting lol

How does this only have Youngkin tied then? lmao



This isn't the first time I've said this, but I beg y'all to stop treating results among subsamples like gospel.

The sample of Black voters is 113, Female voters in the 18-39 range is 69, and the number of Hispanic voters polled is an astounding 25 people.

So yeah. Don't be surprised when there are wacky results when samples are that low.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2021, 09:38:18 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2021, 09:42:17 AM by Person Man »

This is.... interesting lol

How does this only have Youngkin tied then? lmao



I mean, it's unreasonable until it's not. The urban working class came through for Obama when the pundits said it was wishful thinking and that he would probably do slightly worse than Kerry in 2012.

In 2016 and 2020, same thing for Trump. In 2016 and even in 2020, he motivated people who everyone else written off as too lazy to vote.

In 2021, if there's an upset, it's that Republicans are becoming able to marry Trump's "Alt-Right" coalition with W's "Neoconservative" coalition around issues such as libertarian ideas surrounding  school choice and public health and conservative populist policy on civil rights and the powers of the local armed services. Perhaps the consolidation of state power and a devolution of public responsibilities is attractive to many voters.

Then again, many polls have shown that educated suburban voters have become heavily reliant on physical and human infrastructure as diversity has become a central lynchpin of the community in terms of being able to get able hands and to sell to new customers.
Logged
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,905


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2021, 10:01:30 AM »

Fwiw, cygnal has a B+ rating

538 data shows they didn’t overestimate Rs in 2020 and nailed 2019 ky gov race
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,798
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 25, 2021, 10:09:24 AM »

We will find out next week we FL t need that many more polls, but Youngkin hasn't pulled a head
Logged
The Smiling Face On Your TV
slimey56
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,494
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.46, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2021, 10:15:18 AM »

Nothing we don't already know. Conservative enthusiasm is high and it's gonna be up to Tmac's campaign to rally support based on both COVID and social issues. This always was and still is about turnout.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 12 queries.