North Korea Prepares for a Future Without Kim Jong Un

[Frodo]

Seeing his sister Kim Yo Jong as the most likely successor, it's going to be interesting seeing a woman representing North Korea on the world stage:

North Korea may be making plans for a future without Kim Jong Un

[Meclazine for Israel]

I thought the title was going to be:

"North Korea prepares for Nuclear War".

[Biden 2024]

Should probably change the title to "New article article re: prospects of North Korea post-Kim Jong Un" or something like that. The redacted title as of now is "North Korea Prepares for" which is concerning to see lol.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

[Indy Texas]

Would Kim Yo-jong qualify as history's first female dictator?

[NewYorkExpress]

Would Kim Yo-jong qualify as history's first female dictator?

Does Isabel Peron count?

[H. Ross Peron]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

There's no reason to think Kim Jong-Un's death would cause chaos nor would South Korea move troops around the DMZ without US backing.

[Big Abraham]

Would Kim Yo-jong qualify as history's first female dictator?

Maria Theresa?
Catherine the Great?

[PSOL]

North Korea isn’t going to fall apart after the death of the current leading Kim. Internally, after the purge of the pro-Chinese faction led by his now dead uncle, there are no leading figures or factions to challenge Kim’s somewhat internal modernizing program. Similarly, externally the threats to North Korea are a bit distracted. With China dealing with economic slowdown and a hypermilitarized South China Sea with AUKUS, they have no willingness to make North Korea turn towards the Anglophone. Similarly, with the focus now on thermonuclear war with China and China alone, with all other bugaboos a distant memory, the United States couldn’t care about the Korean Peninsula and won’t let their proxy in South Korea—the LKP— act against the north what with focus on China.

Outside of deterioration from privatization to the hands of the military elite, which mainly just affects the poor anyway, North Korea is in a pretty stable position with no inner or outer threats, especially now with the main policy being focusing on inner development and not making any foreign policy moves. The next leader will either be his sister, but I suspect that while the Kim family will hold onto their grip as the top dog, actual administrative rule will be done by bureaucrats with close ties to them, which could make things both very much more competitive in factions trying to make it to the top and very divorced from who controls power informally.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Would Kim Yo-jong qualify as history's first female dictator?

Does Isabel Peron count?

Or Indira Gandhi?

[Silent Hunter]

Both female Tudor monarchs of England?

[Conservatopia]

The queen in Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs?

[CumbrianLefty]

There were (a few) female Pharaohs, come to that.

[Tintrlvr]

Obviously there have been lots of female monarchs throughout history, including in Korea. I suppose the question is whether there is a meaningful distinction between (absolute) monarchy and dictatorship.

In any event, Isabel Peron and Indira Gandhi seem at least pretty close to modern female dictators. Jiang Qing also held unofficial power for about a month after Mao Zedong's death and could count.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

It's baffling how a nation like North Korea might be sooner than the USA in having a woman as commander-in-chief for the first time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Somewhat unsurprising, the following thread had been started by our one and only Tender:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=203334.25

[Хahar 🤔]

The linked article discusses this, but Kim Jong-un appears to have lost a staggering amount of weight, to the extent where it's not totally unreasonable to ask if it's even the same person who is making public appearances now.

North Korea has been hit hard by covid, not just in terms of direct deaths from disease but also because the country has been closed. North Korea has never been able to produce enough food to feed its population (the scarcity of arable land would make units difficult no matter what), and ever since the famine of the '90s most North Koreans have relied on the market to survive. Pandemic-related disruptions have severely impacted market activity.

The conciliatory attitude adopted by the current South Korean government has not been reciprocated; last year, the North Korean government destroyed the Inter-Korean Liaison Office building, which was located in Kaesong just north of the border. (The office had been evacuated by the South Korean government due to the pandemic.) It appears that there have been some changes since the death of Kim Jong-il in that the military-first policy seems to have been rolled back somewhat, but there has been no structural change.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

[Hnv1]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

that is simply not going to happen. the ROK has enough problems without having to take care of millions of poor people from the DRPK. the lessons from the GDR and DDR unifications are still up there for everyone to see, and assimilating the north koreans would be significantly more expensive.

Secondly, if the fat kid from up is pushed aside, it will probably be in a coordinated move by the north korean military who will issue a warning to the ROK and the US in advance

[PSOL]

The linked article discusses this, but Kim Jong-un appears to have lost a staggering amount of weight, to the extent where it's not totally unreasonable to ask if it's even the same person who is making public appearances now.

lmao, at worst the dude went through a hefty liposuction. Still, I believe that both stress and determination to lose weight pushed him to drop those pounds.

[StateBoiler]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

That's an incredibly stupid take.

[StateBoiler]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

[Former President tack50]

Would Kim Yo-jong qualify as history's first female dictator?

Depends on whether you consider Indira Gandhi at her peak of power a dictator or not I suppose.

[Frodo]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

Isn’t North Korea already a client/vassal state of China?  Unless what you are really referring to is have China follow Russia’s lead (with regard to Crimea) and officially annex the country. And honestly, I can’t say I am averse to the idea.  North Korea is such a basket case I’d rather they be China’s burden instead of South Korea’s (and by extension, ours).

[PSOL]

If Kim Jong Un dies anytime soon, the South Korean Army going to cross the DMZ in the chaos and seek to reunify Korea by force.

No idea if the U.S (or anyone else) would help them.

Even a peaceful reunification of Korea would be problematic and extremely expensive for South Korea, far beyond what West Germany had to pay for German reunification. The only way South Korea would even consider attempting reunification by force would be if chaos in North Korea had already caused one or more contenders to be Kim Jong-un's successor to launch an invasion of South Korea. Even then, they'd probably just try to push the Korean People's Army back across the DMZ, only going further if the North Koreans refused offers of a resumed armistice.

The only way I ever see reunification occurring is for some reason the Chinese allow it to intentionally weaken South Korea. The end game to me is North Korea becomes more of a Chinese vassal state a la Imperial Japan-led Manchukuo. This would require the elimination of the Kim family from the leadership and for someone that is completely under China's thumb to take control and get rid of all the Kim loyalists in the state apparatus.

Isn’t North Korea already a client/vassal state of China?  Unless what you are really referring to is have China follow Russia’s lead (with regard to Crimea) and officially annex the country. And honestly, I can’t say I am averse to the idea.  North Korea is such a basket case I’d rather they be China’s burden instead of South Korea’s (and by extension, ours).

North Korea and China are in the nadir of their relationship together after the murder of Jang Thae Sok, who represented the pro-Chinese faction. They are not a Chinese vassal state, never have been and that’s due to the various purges within the North Korean elite.