Monmouth-VA- tie, youngkin +3, mcauliffe +3

[DrScholl]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Did you not see what happened on January 6th? It will definitely happen again when Youngkin loses. Anyone who thinks he will actually win is the crazy one. Virginia got more Democratic in 2020, not less. And no, Trump did not win it, so don't even start with the "audit Virginia" nonsense.

[jamestroll]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Did you not see what happened on January 6th? It will definitely happen again when Youngkin loses. Anyone who thinks he will actually win is the crazy one. Virginia got more Democratic in 2020, not less. And no, Trump did not win it, so don't even start with the "audit Virginia" nonsense.

Exactly. If youngkin loses.. there is no way they let this go without a fight

[Chips]

Just calm down everyone, please. No one knows for sure what will happen on and in the aftermath of election day. It's only 2 weeks away. Will there be another January 6th type event? It's possible but unlikely. Will McAuliffe over or underperform expectations? No one can tell for sure until the election is over.

[Spectator]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Did you not see what happened on January 6th? It will definitely happen again when Youngkin loses. Anyone who thinks he will actually win is the crazy one. Virginia got more Democratic in 2020, not less. And no, Trump did not win it, so don't even start with the "audit Virginia" nonsense.

Exactly. If youngkin loses.. there is no way they let this go without a fight

Who cares? If they want to throw their lives away and become imprisoned or unemployable by doing that, whatever.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Is this parody ? Or are you actually that brain dead.

[SnowLabrador]

New prediction: Youngkin +1.

[DrScholl]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Is this parody ? Or are you actually that brain dead.

If you don't remember what happened January 6th then it is you that is brain dead. Just because I don't think Youngkin is guaranteed to win doesn't mean I'm brain dead.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Is this parody ? Or are you actually that brain dead.

If you don't remember what happened January 6th then it is you that is brain dead. Just because I don't think Youngkin is guaranteed to win doesn't mean I'm brain dead.

I never said youngkin is guaranteed going to win.. but every republican election defeat isn't going to come with rioting 

Did cali repubs riot when Elder lost.

[Spectator]

Youngkin will lose, his supporters will beat up the police, try to set the Capitol on Richmond on fire, threaten to kill the family of election officials, etc, etc. That is how this story will go period.

Is this parody ? Or are you actually that brain dead.

If you don't remember what happened January 6th then it is you that is brain dead. Just because I don't think Youngkin is guaranteed to win doesn't mean I'm brain dead.

I never said youngkin is guaranteed going to win.. but every republican election defeat isn't going to come with rioting 

Did cali repubs riot when Elder lost.

He also lost by 25 points. Hard for even the craziest Republicans to claim that was “stolen”

[kwabbit]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

I think you've got the wrong definition of unskewing. Looking at a polls demographics and whether they're realistic or not is not the same thing as unskewing.

The problem is that you never go 'hmm, this subsample is too favorable for Democrats, I need to adjust the topline more to the Republican'. Polling is by nature random and can be prone to extreme subsamples. However on average there should be no bias to any party across subsamples, which is why it's regarded as foolish to 'unskew'. Anyone can play that game, finding subsamples, and adjusting the poll to their preferred party. The end result is that you consistently overestimate Democrats. I think anyone on the 2020 polling boards remembers you claiming constantly that polling was underestimating Biden, the same polling that massively overestimated him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just when I was stating to feel better about this race...I'm not convinced Youngkin will win but I really don't like when more doubt starts setting in.

It sucks that McAuliffe isn't pulling away with this in polling like I had thought, but it is in fact possible that polling will end up the biggest loser of this race, even more than Youngkin, if McAuliffe over-performs his polling. Perhaps in moving the goal posts so much to make this race look competitive, McAuliffe's win will look more impressive. Or maybe these close polls will scare Democrats into turning out more. I don't know, I just can't shake my confidence that McAuliffe will still win. I just don't know by how much, and I just want this race to end already so we can know and stop all the damn speculating.

Also I hate these Schrodinger polls that hedge their bets so much. Is it really that helpful to have both McAuliffe and Youngkin up by the same amount, in addition to a tie? I mean, no s***! Just commit to a decisive result!

[lfromnj]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

I think you've got the wrong definition of unskewing. Looking at a polls demographics and whether they're realistic or not is not the same thing as unskewing.

The problem is that you never go 'hmm, this subsample is too favorable for Democrats, I need to adjust the topline more to the Republican'. Polling is by nature random and can be prone to extreme subsamples. However on average there should be no bias to any party across subsamples, which is why it's regarded as foolish to 'unskew'. Anyone can play that game, finding subsamples, and adjusting the poll to their preferred party. The end result is that you consistently overestimate Democrats. I think anyone on the 2020 polling boards remembers you claiming constantly that polling was underestimating Biden, the same polling that massively overestimated him.

Note though-

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1443226460483776512

Wait did Wbrocks just unskew a poll in favor of R's.

In defense he did do it a few weeks ago.

[wbrocks67]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

I think you've got the wrong definition of unskewing. Looking at a polls demographics and whether they're realistic or not is not the same thing as unskewing.

The problem is that you never go 'hmm, this subsample is too favorable for Democrats, I need to adjust the topline more to the Republican'. Polling is by nature random and can be prone to extreme subsamples. However on average there should be no bias to any party across subsamples, which is why it's regarded as foolish to 'unskew'. Anyone can play that game, finding subsamples, and adjusting the poll to their preferred party. The end result is that you consistently overestimate Democrats. I think anyone on the 2020 polling boards remembers you claiming constantly that polling was underestimating Biden, the same polling that massively overestimated him.

Note though-

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1443226460483776512

Wait did Wbrocks just unskew a poll in favor of R's.

In defense he did do it a few weeks ago.

Thanks. I'm not trying to "unskew" for either side, but if there's a glaring issue with the composite of the poll, it's worth being brought up.

Just like with the CNU or Roanoke or whatever polls they had a TOO educated of a sample, this one is a bit too low of an education sample. Not unskewing, just fact.

[wbrocks67]

Just when I was stating to feel better about this race...I'm not convinced Youngkin will win but I really don't like when more doubt starts setting in.

It sucks that McAuliffe isn't pulling away with this in polling like I had thought, but it is in fact possible that polling will end up the biggest loser of this race, even more than Youngkin, if McAuliffe over-performs his polling. Perhaps in moving the goal posts so much to make this race look competitive, McAuliffe's win will look more impressive. Or maybe these close polls will scare Democrats into turning out more. I don't know, I just can't shake my confidence that McAuliffe will still win. I just don't know by how much, and I just want this race to end already so we can know and stop all the damn speculating.

Also I hate these Schrodinger polls that hedge their bets so much. Is it really that helpful to have both McAuliffe and Youngkin up by the same amount, in addition to a tie? I mean, no s***! Just commit to a decisive result!

It's all the same feeling in 2017 at this time when pundits were all saying Northam was blowing that race because MS-13 was supposed to be a major issue that campaign, and polls at the time mostly said it was close to a dead heat.

Not sure who expected T-Mac to be "running away with it" though in a Biden midterm.

[TodayJunior]

So…… “McAuliffe is up! Unless he’s down…!!” 🙄

Seriously though, This isn’t 2009, 2013, or even 2017 anymore. Virginia is deep blue now, and the California treatment will kick in. McAuliffe will win by 8-10. I stand by that. The gop is dead on arrival in Virginia now and will be for the foreseeable future. Why? Cold hard math.

[Hollywood]

Democrats are likely in trouble in Virginia.  Republicans have a 7% motivational and 24% Enthusiasm lead over Democrats.  It also looks like the early voting (mail and in-person) numbers are pretty close in Republican and Democrat areas, and Democrats should be much further ahead.   There are many undecided voters in Democrat and Republican districts, and they seem to reflect numerous voters that disapprove of Joe Biden.  Joe Biden’s disapproval among Independents is 58%, and only 39% support McAuliffe, 5% support other, and 49% support Youngkin.  That means the majority of the 9% that are still undecided in this election disapprove of Joe Biden.  

[MT Treasurer]

something something 2017 something something

After four years of uninterrupted D success under one of the most divisive Republican Presidents in history who energized Democrats and suburbanites to previously unseen levels, Democrats really seem to have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that they man they depended on is... no longer in the White House.

McAuliffe probably still wins this race because of mere partisanship, but anyone who seriously thinks that this is more of a referendum on Trump than it is a referendum on VA Democrats/national Democrats/Biden is deliberately ignoring reality.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Monmouth: "We think the Virginia race will either be a TMac win, a Youngkin win or too close to call"

Atlas: 2+ page thread on how either the Dems or GOP are screwed


Gotta love Election season!

[Hollywood]

something something 2017 something something

After four years of uninterrupted D success under one of the most divisive Republican Presidents in history who energized Democrats and suburbanites to previously unseen levels, Democrats really seem to have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that they man they depended on is... no longer in the White House.

McAuliffe probably still wins this race because of mere partisanship, but anyone who seriously thinks that this is more of a referendum on Trump than it is a referendum on VA Democrats/national Democrats/Biden is deliberately ignoring reality.

I think you're 100% correct.  It's pretty obvious that Likely VA voters are motivated by their opposition  to Joe Biden and National Democrat policies.  Almost 60% of independents and 10% of Democrats disapprove of Joe Biden Biden.  It seems like a lot more minorities are either going to stay home or vote for Youngkin on November 2.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin won. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, they certainly have their bases covered no matter what happens.

[wbrocks67]

something something 2017 something something

After four years of uninterrupted D success under one of the most divisive Republican Presidents in history who energized Democrats and suburbanites to previously unseen levels, Democrats really seem to have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that they man they depended on is... no longer in the White House.

McAuliffe probably still wins this race because of mere partisanship, but anyone who seriously thinks that this is more of a referendum on Trump than it is a referendum on VA Democrats/national Democrats/Biden is deliberately ignoring reality.

I think you're 100% correct.  It's pretty obvious that Likely VA voters are motivated by their opposition  to Joe Biden and National Democrat policies.  Almost 60% of independents and 10% of Democrats disapprove of Joe Biden Biden.  It seems like a lot more minorities are either going to stay home or vote for Youngkin on November 2.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin won. 

Youngkin has 6% of the black vote here, which would be 6% less than what Gillepsie got in 2017 (12%)

[Hollywood]

something something 2017 something something

After four years of uninterrupted D success under one of the most divisive Republican Presidents in history who energized Democrats and suburbanites to previously unseen levels, Democrats really seem to have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that they man they depended on is... no longer in the White House.

McAuliffe probably still wins this race because of mere partisanship, but anyone who seriously thinks that this is more of a referendum on Trump than it is a referendum on VA Democrats/national Democrats/Biden is deliberately ignoring reality.

I think you're 100% correct.  It's pretty obvious that Likely VA voters are motivated by their opposition  to Joe Biden and National Democrat policies.  Almost 60% of independents and 10% of Democrats disapprove of Joe Biden Biden.  It seems like a lot more minorities are either going to stay home or vote for Youngkin on November 2.  And I wouldn't be surprised if Youngkin won. 

Youngkin has 6% of the black vote here, which would be 6% less than what Gillepsie got in 2017 (12%)

Understood.  But Youngkin is doing 12 points better with white voters than Gillespie, and white voters will make up a greater percentage of the electorate this year. According to Monmouth, 12% of Black Voters and 4% of white voters are undecided.  Black voters are less motivated and enthusiastic than white voters, and Democrat voters are less motivated and enthusiastic than Republicans.  This gap is
many times much wider in other polls. 

Also, other polls have Youngkin over 12% with African American voters, but keep his margin among white voters between 8-12% as opposed to 25%. 

[Alben Barkley]

These "likely voter" models are a joke. And they are going to (yet again) be so vastly, comically off that the next polling "scandal" will be about how horribly inaccurate these stupid models are now.

Mark my words.

[ElectionsGuy]

These "likely voter" models are a joke. And they are going to (yet again) be so vastly, comically off that the next polling "scandal" will be about how horribly inaccurate these stupid models are now.

Mark my words.

lol if only you spent the same amount of time/energy critiquing polls in 2020 instead of gloating about them and how accurate they'd be and predicting a fantasy landslide that even those polls didn't support.

[Calthrina950]

While I do think McAuliffe is still going to win, I also think it is foolish for Democrats to take this race for granted. And given that both Bidens, Harris, and Obama have been campaigning on McAuliffe's behalf, it doesn't appear that they are doing so. Moreover, it seems like some posters on here are repeating last year's mistakes, by doubting polls that are not favorable for that party-even if such polls are from reputable polling outfits. That is a mistake that should also be avoided.