Monmouth-VA- tie, youngkin +3, mcauliffe +3

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1450869510769201156

[wbrocks67]

The truly hilarious part is that on this day in 2017, Monmouth had a poll out with Gillepsie closing in, with a +1 lead-

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_va_101717/

IDK if history is repeating itself with this race but it's almost scary that it's seeming like a total 2017 redux.

If this poll is true, then McAuliffe and the Dems need to go into overdrive on Youngkin. How T-Mac has a net zero fav rating while Youngkin somehow has +12 (which is a tad unbelievable) is insane. I'm sure there's other nuances here like Reps hating T-Mac more than Dems hate Youngkin, but still.

Wild swings in Indie and Women samples as well, too. But that's not out of the ordinary for Monmouth.

[Lief 🗽]

Yikes.

Looks like we can move Virginia’s electoral votes in 2024 to Safe R now.

[Skill and Chance]

Yikes.

Looks like we can move Virginia’s electoral votes in 2024 to Safe R now.

What? 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This poll is projecting turnout to be higher than 2020... which is a little strange.

It's also worth noting that Monmouth's poll of the 2017 race around this time had the competition at Gillespie +1, but I doubt this little nugget of a caveat will temper the inevitable dooming that is about to happen here.

[Lief 🗽]

Yikes.

Looks like we can move Virginia’s electoral votes in 2024 to Safe R now.

What? 

If Youngkin is governor he’ll award VA’s electoral votes to Trump regardless of who wins the state popular vote.

[jamestroll]

Yea... I have seen this movie before. We all know what this means.

[Mr.Phips]

Good god Biden get it together.  He’s seriously going to cost Dems this race.

[wbrocks67]

Good god Biden get it together.  He’s seriously going to cost Dems this race.

How is Biden going to cost Dems the race? Pretty sure he's not a Senator who's voting on bills and holding things up.

[jamestroll]

Moving back to lean r. Seen this movie too many times

[Skill and Chance]

Yikes.

Looks like we can move Virginia’s electoral votes in 2024 to Safe R now.

What? 

If Youngkin is governor he’ll award VA’s electoral votes to Trump regardless of who wins the state popular vote.

The governor doesn't have that authority.  The only plausible way that could be done is by passing a law through the state legislature in advance of the election.  The state legislature is Dem and one chamber isn't even up until 2023.

[Skill and Chance]

Good god Biden get it together.  He’s seriously going to cost Dems this race.

How is Biden going to cost Dems the race? Pretty sure he's not a Senator who's voting on bills and holding things up.

Everyone looks incompetent right now.  I do think an infrastructure deal next week would be very helpful to McAuliffe. 

[Xing]

Yeah, Governor Gillespie agrees that Governor Youngkin is inevitable.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Moving back to lean r. Seen this movie too many times

[Matty]

Biden is at 52% disapprove in this poll

You wanted a nationalized race, you got one

[wbrocks67]

Hm, it also has a college-ed rate that is not only lower than 2017, but also 2013

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1450876886247215112

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Wbrocks still desperately unskewing polls.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This poll is projecting turnout to be higher than 2020... which is a little strange.

Where do you see that?

It's also worth noting that Monmouth's poll of the 2017 race around this time had the competition at Gillespie +1, but I doubt this little nugget of a caveat will temper the inevitable dooming that is about to happen here.

Simply put, 1 of 20 polls should be outside of MOE, thus you'll always find "bad" polls.

With that said, D were underestimated in 2017, and it might happen again. A difference though, that this time there is an unpopular (D) Pr, instead of unpopular (R).

[ElectionsGuy]

lol



As much as you guys want it to be 2017, it's not going to be 2017. I've just saw a non-public poll that indicates a very similar result. And the polls for this race have been very consistent and within a very narrow field of results. Not a single recent poll has been more than +5 for McAuliffe. Contrast that to 2013, the last time a Dem was in the White House, and McAuliffe lead by at least 5 points in nearly all polls. In 2017, you had at least a few polls that indicated Northam would win by more than 5, and you had the enthusiasm and unpopular incumbent party problem on the Democrat's side. Those are both on the Republican's side this year. The incumbent president's approval has a large effect on this race, and historically drags down the incumbent party. At this point, if you deny that, you're just burying your head in the sand.

My prediction is still at this point to think McAuliffe is going to eek out this race, because the polling in Virginia doesn't tend to have the same biases it does throughout the Midwest and WWC America, but I would not be sitting comfortably right now If I were working for McAuliffe.

[ElectionsGuy]

Good god Biden get it together.  He’s seriously going to cost Dems this race.

How is Biden going to cost Dems the race? Pretty sure he's not a Senator who's voting on bills and holding things up.

How could Biden possibly cost Democrats this race?

[jamestroll]

Safe r

[ElectionsGuy]

Safe r

lol just log off for a while. Take some deep breaths.

[Rookie Yinzer]

McAuliffe is going to win and it’s not going to be a nail biter. Polls for this race are useless asf and being used to drive a horse race narrative.

[Xing]

McAuliffe is going to win and it’s not going to be a nail biter. Polls for this race are useless asf and being used to drive a horse race narrative.

Atlas: 2020 proves that we shouldn't pay attention to polls, since they're useless. Just look at fundamentals and trust your gut!

Also Atlas: Polls show a close race in Virginia. Welp, that settles that, it's a Toss-Up at best, anyone who says otherwise is living in denial.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

McAuliffe is going to win and it’s not going to be a nail biter. Polls for this race are useless asf and being used to drive a horse race narrative.

Atlas: 2020 proves that we shouldn't pay attention to polls, since they're useless. Just look at fundamentals and trust your gut!

Also Atlas: Polls show a close race in Virginia. Welp, that settles that, it's a Toss-Up at best, anyone who says otherwise is living in denial.

Why are Atlas D's just completely ignoring the most glaring fact of the current national environment.. Biden's approval is literally at borderline 43%.

What is achieved by ignoring this.