Does 2004 show that Dem panicking over the Rio Grande Valley is overblown?

[Hope For A New Era]

It's too early to say. A big part of 2004 was Bush being from Texas and targeting Latinos in his campaign (as well as already being a good fit for them generally).

If I had to make a gun-to-head guess right now, I'd say we're likely to see a bounce-back in both RGV and South Florida in 2022 and 2024, but that Democrats are not going to reach their extreme 2016 margins again anytime soon. I also think that South Florida will probably remain overall relatively static as far as trending goes (there is only so Republican an urban area can get in this alignment), while South Texas will continue to move right (though it will retain at least a small Democratic lean for the foreseeable future, and the urban counties at the far south are definitely not flipping, though several rural ones might).

[Woody]

No bounce back. TX-15th just elected it's first Republican.

Democrats say goodbye to the RGV soon - swing and trend map:

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

If I had to make a gun-to-head guess right now, I'd say we're likely to see a bounce-back in both RGV and South Florida in 2022 and 2024, but that Democrats are not going to reach their extreme 2016 margins again anytime soon. I also think that South Florida will probably remain overall relatively static as far as trending goes (there is only so Republican an urban area can get in this alignment), while South Texas will continue to move right (though it will retain at least a small Democratic lean for the foreseeable future, and the urban counties at the far south are definitely not flipping, though several rural ones might).

Lol

Obvious no both with and without hindsight, although Dems outperformed general expectations in the RGV this year.

[It’s so Joever]

No bounce back. TX-15th just elected it's first Republican.

Democrats say goodbye to the RGV soon - swing and trend map:

Why would you be bragging about that trend map?

[Skill and Chance]

No bounce back. TX-15th just elected it's first Republican.

Democrats say goodbye to the RGV soon - swing and trend map:

Why would you be bragging about that trend map?

Yes, this election was scarier for Texas R's than it looked, while 2020 wasn't as scary as it looked.  Houston came through for Beto by a lot more than expected given the statewide margin.  If Dems ever crack 60% consistently in Harris (on a uniform swing, Beto would have in a tie), it's game over regardless of the RGV.

[Hope For A New Era]

If I had to make a gun-to-head guess right now, I'd say we're likely to see a bounce-back in both RGV and South Florida in 2022 and 2024, but that Democrats are not going to reach their extreme 2016 margins again anytime soon. I also think that South Florida will probably remain overall relatively static as far as trending goes (there is only so Republican an urban area can get in this alignment), while South Texas will continue to move right (though it will retain at least a small Democratic lean for the foreseeable future, and the urban counties at the far south are definitely not flipping, though several rural ones might).

Lol

Obvious no both with and without hindsight, although Dems outperformed general expectations in the RGV this year.

Mistakes were made