2021-22 College Basketball Thread

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1502733060600696842

Given the scope of those allegations and the fact that football program also has multiple allegations against it, it's hard to imagine LSU getting anything less than a multi-year postseason ban in Men's Basketball and Football.

The Death Penalty might even be on the table for Men's Basketball, given how long it took them to fire Will Wade.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ER's 2022 Bracketology:

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Tennessee
3 Seeds: Villanova, Texas Tech, Houston, Purdue
4 Seeds: UCLA, Arkansas, Iowa, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Illinois, UConn, Texas, Ohio State
6 Seeds: San Diego State, Alabama, Saint Mary's, LSU
7 Seeds: Murray State, Boise State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Providence, Loyola-Chicago, North Carolina, San Francisco
9 Seeds: Memphis, USC, TCU, Marquette
10 Seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Davidson
11 Seeds: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
12 Seeds: Michigan/Xavier, Rutgers/Texas A&M, UAB, South Dakota State
13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
14 Seeds: Colgate, Akron, Longwood, Montana State
15 Seeds: Delaware, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State, Long Beach State
16 Seeds: Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Wright State/Bryant, Texas Southern/Southeastern Louisiana

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Rutgers, Texas A&M
First Four Out: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
Next Four Out: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU


NIT Bracketology:
1 Seeds: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
2 Seeds: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU
3 Seeds: North Texas, Mississippi State, Oregon, Saint Louis
4 Seeds: Belmont, Colorado, Virginia, South Carolina
5 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Santa Clara, Utah State, Missouri State
6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Richmond*, Washington State*, Drake*
7 Seeds: Iona, Towson, Toledo, Northern Iowa
8 Seeds: Texas State, Nicholls, Cleveland State, Alcorn State

Last Four In: Vanderbilt, Richmond*, Washington State*, Drake*
First Four Out: Saint John's, Fresno State, UCF, Louisiana Tech

*Subject to potential removal from the projected field should New Mexico State, Long Beach State, and/or Princeton lose their conference championship games and require auto-bids to the NIT.

San Diego State with a higher seed than USC? I find that hard to believe. The highest ranked team San Diego State beat was Colorado State when it was #20. USC also beat San Diego State this season.

I know Lunardi disagrees with my answer, but here's what I'd say:

SDSU: 24 NET, 5 Q1 wins, 22 KenPom, 27 BPI, 36 SOR
USC: 35 NET, 4 Q1 wins, 43 KenPom, 40 BPI, 20 SOR

But, you're probably right that it should be a little closer, especially with the SOR number.  I didn't move SDSU and BSU after the MWC Championship, so I could do a little tweaking there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way Houston is a #3.  I know the computers love them, but off the top of my head they’ve got only one Quad 1 win.

[Greedo punched first]

USC beat a P6 team ranked #12 (UCLA) and also beat San Diego State. San Diego State only beat a mid-major ranked #20 (Colorado State). No way San Diego State gets a higher seed than USC.

[Greedo punched first]

Cal State Fullerton beats Long Beach State 72-71 to go to the NCAA tournament.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ER's 2022 Bracketology:

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Tennessee
3 Seeds: Villanova, Texas Tech, Purdue, UCLA
4 Seeds: Arkansas, Iowa, Houston, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Illinois, UConn, Texas, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Boise State, Alabama, Saint Mary's, LSU
7 Seeds: Murray State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Providence, Loyola-Chicago, North Carolina, San Francisco
9 Seeds: Memphis, USC, TCU, Marquette
10 Seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Davidson
11 Seeds: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
12 Seeds: Michigan/Xavier, Rutgers/Texas A&M, UAB, South Dakota State
13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
14 Seeds: Colgate, Akron, Longwood, Montana State
15 Seeds: Delaware, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State, Cal State Fullerton
16 Seeds: Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Wright State/Bryant, Texas Southern/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Miami, Indiana
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Rutgers, Texas A&M
First Four Out: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
Next Four Out: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU


NIT Bracketology:
1 Seeds: Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest, Dayton
2 Seeds: Wyoming, VCU, Florida, BYU
3 Seeds: North Texas, Mississippi State, Oregon, Saint Louis
4 Seeds: Belmont, Colorado, Virginia, South Carolina
5 Seeds: Saint Bonaventure, Santa Clara, Utah State, Missouri State
6 Seeds: Vanderbilt, Richmond, Washington State*, Iona
7 Seeds: Towson, Toledo, Northern Iowa, Long Beach State
8 Seeds: Texas State, Nicholls, Cleveland State, Alcorn State

Last Four In: Missouri State, Vanderbilt, Richmond, Washington State*
First Four Out: Drake, Saint John's, Fresno State, UCF

*Subject to potential removal from the projected field should Princeton lose its conference championship game and require an auto-bid to the NIT.

[DINGO Joe]

Can't bring myself to do a whole bracket, but I'll say Michigan and Rutgers are out with SMU/Wyoming/Dayton filling those 2 spots. 

Some NET thoughts:

With Rutgers out (78 Net) the highest Net of the At-large teams belongs to Miami at 63 which kind of makes it surprising that they're considered such a lock for the tourney.  Creighton is next at 55 which I haven't been able to figure out their NET for some time now.   

Kind of interesting to see how Murray St/San Francisco/Loyola (21-23) are seeded vs Wisconsin/Ohio St (25-26).   Regardless of where the latter are seeded I'm willing to bet those two teams will be two of the most popular teams picked to be upset in the 1st round.

[GeorgiaModerate]

And the last couple of games with bubble implications...

Richmond vs Davidson in the A-10 final - If Richmond wins, they'll steal a bid and knock out a bubble team.

Texas A&M vs Tennessee in the SEC final - I think A&M should be in even with a loss, but there's room for doubt.  It would be best for them to remove the doubt with a win.

Also worth noting: the Big 10 and AAC finals start so late (and finish so close to the start of the selection show) that their outcomes will likely have zero impact on the bracket.  Since Purdue, Iowa, Houston, and Memphis are all solidly in the field, their slots will be decided before those games finish.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Loyola Chicago even good enough for an at-large bid?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Loyola Chicago even good enough for an at-large bid?

I think they would have been right on the edge (and probably out) if they had not won the conference tournament.  Hence I think ER's projection of them as an 8 seed is too high; IMO a 10 is more likely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way Houston is a #3.  I know the computers love them, but off the top of my head they’ve got only one Quad 1 win.

Checked this morning and Houston is actually 0-4 in Quad 1.  The win I was thinking of (neutral site vs Oklahoma State) is now Quad 2, as Oklahoma State has fallen out of the top 50 NET teams (they're #51).

[7,052,770]

Also worth noting: the Big 10 and AAC finals start so late (and finish so close to the start of the selection show) that their outcomes will likely have zero impact on the bracket.  Since Purdue, Iowa, Houston, and Memphis are all solidly in the field, their slots will be decided before those games finish.

I've long thought the SEC (and presumably everyone else) should end the SEC Tournament on Saturday and give the selection committee a whole day to figure it out.

It's been a while now, but I think this really hurt Mississippi State in 2009 and 2010. In 2009, we won the SEC Tournament to get to 23-12 (9-7) but just crossed out the last at-large team and handed us their #13 seed, when we probably would have been a couple seeds higher had they considered our full resume and slotted us in.

In 2010, we lost in overtime by 1 to Kentucky (controversially I'll add) right before the selection show. I just don't think there was enough time to re-evaluate us and likely give us a spot. It hurt extra when the tournament expanded from 65 to 68 the very next year.

In both years, I think the committee had already judged us to be "OUT" before Sunday.

[Greedo punched first]

All of USC’s losses were to teams that didn’t lose at home to a mid-major. Boise State lost at home to two non-conference mid-majors. St. Louis is good, but Boise State also lost at home to Cal State Bakersfield!

[GeorgiaModerate]

All of USC’s losses were to teams that didn’t lose at home to a mid-major. Boise State lost at home to two non-conference mid-majors. St. Louis is good, but Boise State also lost at home to Cal State Bakersfield!

USC vs Boise State

Record: 26-7 / 27-7
NET: 35 / 29
Kenpom: 43 / 28
BPI: 40 / 55
Sagarin: 29 / 38
Quad 1: 4-4 / 6-3
Quad 2: 5-1 / 7-3
Quad 3: 11-2 / 7-0
Quad 4: 6-0 / 6-1

Really, these resumes are quite comparable. The metrics are a wash, and Boise's better record in Q1 is offset by their Q4 loss. It won't be at all surprising if they're on the same seed line or one apart, in either direction. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lunardi thinks the AAC final could affect Houston's seeding:

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/1503073770373853189

[Greedo punched first]

USC is .500 in Q1 wins. San Diego State is only .385 in Q1 wins and lost to USC.

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC is .500 in Q1 wins. San Diego State is only .385 in Q1 wins and lost to USC.

Duh, I was thinking of Boise State rather than San Diego State.  But on a quick look I think all three are comparable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Richmond steals a bid, and makes SMU/Texas A&M/Xavier/etc. even more nervous.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Richmond steals a bid.  I think that might have been Texas A&M's, but I will review before the show.

[Greedo punched first]

USC is .500 in Q1 wins. San Diego State is only .385 in Q1 wins and lost to USC.

Duh, I was thinking of Boise State rather than San Diego State.  But on a quick look I think all three are comparable.

Boise State should be seeded lower than both USC and San Diego State. San Diego State never beat a #12 team.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

ER's Final 2022 Bracketology:

*I know there's a major change to having Notre Dame drop out.  I was overvaluing them due to their conference record, but they have very few quality wins and rank worse than Texas A&M in basically every metric.  I think I had them in my mind as a "lock" due to having always seemed to be above the cut line and to their ACC record, so I think I was biased towards my prior expectations.

1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Duke, Tennessee
3 Seeds: Villanova, Purdue, Texas Tech,UCLA
4 Seeds: Iowa, Arkansas, Houston, Wisconsin
5 Seeds: Illinois, UConn, Texas, Ohio State
6 Seeds: Boise State, Alabama, Saint Mary's, LSU
7 Seeds: Murray State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Seton Hall
8 Seeds: Providence, Loyola-Chicago, North Carolina, USC
9 Seeds: San Francisco, Memphis, TCU, Marquette
10 Seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Virginia Tech, Davidson
11 Seeds: Iowa State, Indiana, Miami, Michigan/Xavier
12 Seeds: Rutgers/Texas A&M, UAB, South Dakota State, Richmond
13 Seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Colgate
14 Seeds: Akron, Longwood, Montana State, Yale
15 Seeds: Delaware, Saint Peter's, Norfolk State, Cal State Fullerton
16 Seeds: Jacksonville State, Georgia State, Wright State/Bryant, Texas Southern/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

Last Four Byes: Davidson, Iowa State, Indiana, Miami
Last Four In: Michigan, Xavier, Rutgers, Texas A&M
First Four Out: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest
Next Four Out: Dayton, Wyoming, VCU, Florida


NIT Bracketology:
1 Seeds: Notre Dame, Oklahoma, SMU, Wake Forest
2 Seeds: Dayton, Wyoming, VCU, Florida
3 Seeds: BYU, North Texas, Mississippi State, Oregon
4 Seeds: Saint Louis, Belmont, Colorado, Virginia
5 Seeds: South Carolina, Saint Bonaventure, Santa Clara, Utah State
6 Seeds: Missouri State, Vanderbilt, Iona, Northern Iowa
7 Seeds: Towson, Toledo, Princeton, Long Beach State
8 Seeds: Texas State, Nicholls, Cleveland State, Alcorn State

Last Four In: Santa Clara, Utah State, Missouri State, Vanderbilt
First Four Out: Washington State, Drake, Saint John's, Fresno State

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia hires Florida's Mike White as our next head coach.  I'm pretty happy with that.  There were some rumors that the school was trying for Scott Drew, which would have been fantastic, but realistically was never going to happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No way Houston is a #3.  I know the computers love them, but off the top of my head they’ve got only one Quad 1 win.

Houston is a #5.

Is Loyola Chicago even good enough for an at-large bid?

I think they would have been right on the edge (and probably out) if they had not won the conference tournament.  Hence I think ER's projection of them as an 8 seed is too high; IMO a 10 is more likely.

Loyola is a #10.

USC is .500 in Q1 wins. San Diego State is only .385 in Q1 wins and lost to USC.

Duh, I was thinking of Boise State rather than San Diego State.  But on a quick look I think all three are comparable.

USC is a #7, Boise and San Diego State are #8's, which all seem perfectly reasonable.

I do have some quibbles with the selection committee, of course:

- Tennessee should have been a #3, with either Duke or Villanova falling to #2.

- Disappointing that Murray State and San Francisco are meeting in the first round.  I'd rather see each of them play a power conference team.

- Surprised that Dayton was the first team out (I had them further out) and Texas A&M was the fourth (I had them as first out after Richmond's win today).

- Also surprised that all of Notre Dame, Rutgers, and Michigan made it.

- IMO there are a couple of very plausible 13-over-4 upsets: Vermont over Arkansas and South Dakota State over Providence.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It felt like the committee really ignored conference tournaments as a whole.

I'm not sure about Wyoming and also am surprised that it was Dayton that Richmond knocked out.

[Podgy the Bear]

Basically, the committee took the whole week off.  A surprise to me that Texas A&M didn't make it after beating #4 Auburn and #14 Arkansas.  And it was clear that Virginia Tech (an 11 seed) wouldn't have made it if they hadn't beaten Duke yesterday.

The message from the committee is: if you're on the bubble, you need to win the conference tournament.  And if you're pretty much guaranteed a spot, take your starting team out of the tournament to avoid injuries and more.