khirkhib
Jr. Member
Posts: 967
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« on: June 19, 2004, 04:02:14 PM » |
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« edited: June 19, 2004, 04:17:18 PM by khirkhib »
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Election Projection is predicting the 269-269 tie again.
In the Most Likely Tie Scenario, Kerry keeping Gores states and gaining New Hampshire and Nevada, the House of Representatives will decide the election. Each state will be given only 1 vote to be decided by its reps. Though this vote will be held in January with the new reps it is much more likely that Bush would win in the Vote. Assuming the composition of each states representatives do not change radically Bush would easily garner the votes of 22 states. Kerry should have no problem getting 10. The interesting thing is though Bush would only need 3 more states to win the vote he could possibly get all 16 other votes out of party loyalty and/or fear of not getting re-elected. Basically though this shows it in the EV tie Bush is going to waltz back into the oval office.
I predict in the Vote 31 states go to Bush and 19 go to Kerry. Please if somebody knows more about the congressional race could you show the likely composition of the states.
(map Dark Red/Blue Reps votes would clearly go to chosen candidate -- Light Red/Blue Reps may vote for party out of loyalty or against own party and fear of reprecussions from constituents)
State - Likley Polutar Vote - Composition of House Reps - Likely Representative Vote Safe for Bush Alabama - Bush - R 5 D 2 - Bush Alaska Bush R1 - Bush Arizona Bush R6 D2 - Bush Colorado - Bush R 5 D 2 Bush Florida Bush R 18 D 7 Bush Georgia Bush - R 8 D5 Bush Idaho - Bush R 1 Bush Indiana Bush R 6 D 3 Bush Kansas Bush R 3 D 1 - Bush Kentucky Bush R 4 D1 Bush Louisiana Bush R 4 D 3 Bush Mississippi Bush R 2 D 2 Bush Missouri Bush R 5 D 4 Bush Montana Bush R 1 Bush Nebraska Bush R 3 Bush North Carolina Bush - R 7 D 6 - Bush Ohio Bush R 12 D6 - Bush Oklahoma Bush R 4 D 1 Bush South Carolina Bush R 4 D 2 Bush Utah Bush R 2 D 1 Bush Virginia Bush R 8 D 3 Bush Wyoming Bush R 1 Bush
Safe For Kerry California - Kerry - R 20 D 33 Kerry Hawaii Kerry D 2 Kerry Maine Kerry D 2 Kerry Massachusetts Kerry D10 Kerry Maryland Kerry D 5 R 2 - Kerry New Jersey Kerry R 6 D 7 Kerry New York Kerry R 10 D 18 Kerry Oregon Kerry R 1 D 4 Kerry Rhode Island Kerry D 2 Kerry Washington Kerry R 3 D 6 - Kerry
Interesting - How would the Reps Vote? Probably for Bush Arkansas - Bush - R 1 D 3 - Bush New Hampshire Kerry R 2 Bush New Mexico Kerry R 2 D 1 Bush North Dakota Bush D1 Bush Pennsylvania Kerry - R 12 D 7 - Bush South Dakota Bush D 1 Bush Tennessee Bush R 4 D 5 - Bush Texas Bush - R 15 D 17 Bush West Virginia Bush R 1 D 2 - Bush
Probably for Kerry Connecticut Kerry R 3 D 2 Kerry Delaware Kerry R1 Kerry Illinois Kerry - R 10 D9 Kerry Iowa - Kerry R 3 D1 - Kerry Nevada Kerry R1 D1 Kerry Michigan Kerry - R 8 D 7 - Kerry Minnesota Kerry - R 4 D 3 Kerry Vermont Kerry I 1 Kerry Wisconsin Kerry R 4 D 4 - Kerry
Washington DC would not have a vote
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