What are the odds Loudoun is decided by a single-digit margin?
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  What are the odds Loudoun is decided by a single-digit margin?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What are the odds of Youngkin holding McAuliffe to less than a 10 point margin in Loudoun County?
#1
Less than 1%/non-existent		  
#2
1-5%		  
#3
5-10%		  
#4
10-20%		  
#5
More than 20%		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: What are the odds Loudoun is decided by a single-digit margin?  (Read 708 times)
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 15, 2021, 08:39:53 PM »
I'd say there's roughly a 5% chance of Youngkin holding McAuliffe to within 10 points in Loudoun and I give him a 25% chance of winning statewide%.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2021, 03:05:28 AM »
Almost nonexistent. It might be 10-15 but under 10 and Youngkin is definitely winning the state by a decisive margin.
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THG
TheTarHeelGent
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2021, 11:05:28 AM »
Very hot take: Prince William will probably be closer than Loudon in this election- ditto in the 2024 presidential election.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2021, 11:17:36 AM »
Quote from: I’M GONNA TOOOOOOOOM on October 16, 2021, 11:05:28 AM
Very hot take: Prince William will probably be closer than Loudon in this election- ditto in the 2024 presidential election.

Totally reasonable given trends, particularly if it's Trump again in 2024 (less sure if it's a more polite conventional R). 
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THG
TheTarHeelGent
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2021, 11:25:45 AM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 16, 2021, 11:17:36 AM
Quote from: I’M GONNA TOOOOOOOOM on October 16, 2021, 11:05:28 AM
Very hot take: Prince William will probably be closer than Loudon in this election- ditto in the 2024 presidential election.

Totally reasonable given trends, particularly if it's Trump again in 2024 (less sure if it's a more polite conventional R). 

Glenn Youngkin is the exact definition of “polite conventional R”, so if he over-performs in Prince William more than Loudon, it’s almost a given that this trend will be true in 2024 regardless of whether the Republican nominee is Trump or not.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2021, 04:43:34 AM »
Quote from: I’M GONNA TOOOOOOOOM on October 16, 2021, 11:05:28 AM
Very hot take: Prince William will probably be closer than Loudon in this election- ditto in the 2024 presidential election.

That's possible.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2021, 04:44:46 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 16, 2021, 03:05:28 AM
Almost nonexistent. It might be 10-15 but under 10 and Youngkin is definitely winning the state by a decisive margin.

That's probably true. 15 points is fairly plausibly reachable for Youngkin.
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Chips
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2021, 04:50:35 AM »
Loudoun is a weird one this cycle with the sexual assault allegations among other things. It's extremely doubtful Loudoun will flip even in Youngkin's absolute best case scenario, But I wouldn't discount the possibility of something interesting happening in Loudoun like an unexpected district flip on either side for instance.
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Spectator
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2021, 08:42:42 AM »
Zero.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2021, 06:31:02 PM »
Loudon County is safe R this year because of the epidemic of trans student rapists that are assailing the county.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2021, 03:16:35 AM »
How many people here have ever stepped foot in Loudoun county?  Just curious.
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