FOX-VA-Tmac+5

[Skill and Chance]

I think this matches closely with swing from the presidential race in CA to the CA Recall?

[Skill and Chance]

I have a question

I wasn’t really following elections in 2009

Wtf happened in VA?

In 2009 fall, Obama ratings weren’t bad. Bush was still toxic

Was there a scandal on the dem ticket?

There was no one big scandal, but it was an old school pretty elderly rural Dem who unfortunately had a speech impediment debating someone who looked and spoke like JFK and didn't say anything to scare Fairfax.

[Skill and Chance]

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.

Plausible they are overcorrecting for 2020?  But it can't just be assumed.  The geography of EV turnout thus far does look more R than 2020, not necessarily by enough to win though.

[Skill and Chance]

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.

Plausible they are overcorrecting for 2020?  But it can't just be assumed.  The geography of EV turnout thus far does look more R than 2020, not necessarily by enough to win though.

It's definitely possible. I also think it's possible that you have a lot of people who are not ticking off "very excited" to vote but are still going to vote nonetheless. Which may be Biden supporters, since they feel deflated a bit right now. So they may be getting bumped out of the "LV" model if it's too strict.

I don't think EV can really tell us anything though. It's just as possible that any location might be lower because that group has decided to vote election day instead of early vote.

That only makes the situation better for Republicans if it happens.  The reason the current EV data doesn't look like "enough" for statewide R's is the low turnout in the 3 rural Appalachian influenced districts.