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  2023 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  FOX-VA-Tmac+5
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Author Topic: FOX-VA-Tmac+5  (Read 1963 times)
Matty
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« on: October 14, 2021, 05:25:13 PM »
« edited: October 14, 2021, 05:32:17 PM by Matty »



Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.
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Canis
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2021, 05:33:29 PM »

Race is still Lean T-Mac Youngkin has a chance of an upset but T-mac is still clearly up. Pollsters should really include Blanding though even if she gets just 1-3% that could be critical in deciding the race,
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2021, 05:36:25 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2021, 05:41:22 PM by Progressive Pessimist »



Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.

Then if that's the case McAuliffe's campaign is succeeding and Youngkin is still being too Trumpy with his tactics.

But at any rate, you're right that this seems like one of the more reasonable polls of the race so far. And that includes the Biden approval number. The election top line is not far off from my prediction, and slightly reassuring at this point even though I still would like to see better.
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RRusso1982
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2021, 06:01:00 PM »



Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.

Why do people say that Virginia is so blue it cannot elect a Republican Governor when Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2021, 06:10:53 PM »



Seems very reasonable

It’s not too far off from the cbs poll.

Ultimately, youngkin is running a fine campaign. The problem is the state is just so blue at this point and also, critically, enough voters still care strongly about covid and they favor mcauliffe.

I’m of the opinion that once covid fades as an issue, it will actually be a wash politically. Dems might get credit for ending it, but, paradoxically, voters will then stop gravitating towards the candidate they feel is stronger on measures and restrictions


Youngkins favorability ratings are +3. That’s not bad at all. A decent slice of mcauliffe voters like the man

They just think if they vote for him, they are voting for trump.

Why do people say that Virginia is so blue it cannot elect a Republican Governor when Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts?

It probably won't happen this year, but I think it's possible under the right circumstances. Though just about everything would have to go right for the GOP, and the victory would probably be narrow. A 17-point victory like they got in 2009 is definitely out of the question.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2021, 06:11:24 PM »

I think this matches closely with swing from the presidential race in CA to the CA Recall?
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Matty
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2021, 06:14:04 PM »

I have a question

I wasn’t really following elections in 2009

Wtf happened in VA?

In 2009 fall, Obama ratings weren’t bad. Bush was still toxic

Was there a scandal on the dem ticket?

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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2021, 06:17:00 PM »

A redux of 2017 with a 9% TMac win really shouldn't be ruled out. But it can still be inconclusive for 2022, it's just that polarization works for the blue team in this state like it does for the red team in Ohio.
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Matty
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2021, 06:20:15 PM »

A redux of 2017 with a 9% TMac win really shouldn't be ruled out. But it can still be inconclusive for 2022, it's just that polarization works for the blue team in this state like it does for the red team in Ohio.

True, but I think a 2017 redux would be demoralizing because

A) we have a (somewhat) unpopular dem president in office with middling approvals in VA
B) the gop nominee isn’t low quality at all and has managed to put together relatively decent favorability ratings

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2021, 06:37:35 PM »

I have a question

I wasn’t really following elections in 2009

Wtf happened in VA?

In 2009 fall, Obama ratings weren’t bad. Bush was still toxic

Was there a scandal on the dem ticket?



There was no one big scandal, but it was an old school pretty elderly rural Dem who unfortunately had a speech impediment debating someone who looked and spoke like JFK and didn't say anything to scare Fairfax.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2021, 06:46:36 PM »


Why do people say that Virginia is so blue it cannot elect a Republican Governor when Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts?

Because having a Republican Governor of Massachusetts does not matter. The Massachusetts Legislature has veto proof Democratic majorities so they not the Governor get the final say.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2021, 06:46:47 PM »

McAuliffe+7.2
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Pericles
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2021, 09:02:09 PM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2021, 09:26:03 PM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

Yeah given the RV numbers this might be the best poll of the race for McAuliffe. I doubt they’ll be that much of a gap between RV and LV.
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2021, 10:37:48 PM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: October 14, 2021, 10:42:36 PM »

A redux of 2017 with a 9% TMac win really shouldn't be ruled out. But it can still be inconclusive for 2022, it's just that polarization works for the blue team in this state like it does for the red team in Ohio.

True, but I think a 2017 redux would be demoralizing because

A) we have a (somewhat) unpopular dem president in office with middling approvals in VA
B) the gop nominee isn’t low quality at all and has managed to put together relatively decent favorability ratings



Oddly, the Ossoff loss sounds a bit like that, losing by 4% in a Trump +1.5% district didn't look great. However, that turned out to be just a case of down-ballot trends not catching up with presidential trends. VA if it did turn out to be an anomaly would either just be random or the opposite, of trends being too strong.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2021, 11:48:05 PM »

No silver linings for Youngkin in this poll. Seems to be a bit biased in favor of him, actually. Looks like they're undersampling dem voters.
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vitoNova
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2021, 12:00:06 AM »

To paraphrase Robert Browning:

"...and all is right in the world"
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2021, 05:30:02 AM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2021, 06:37:50 AM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.

Plausible they are overcorrecting for 2020?  But it can't just be assumed.  The geography of EV turnout thus far does look more R than 2020, not necessarily by enough to win though.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2021, 06:53:10 AM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.

Plausible they are overcorrecting for 2020?  But it can't just be assumed.  The geography of EV turnout thus far does look more R than 2020, not necessarily by enough to win though.

It's definitely possible. I also think it's possible that you have a lot of people who are not ticking off "very excited" to vote but are still going to vote nonetheless. Which may be Biden supporters, since they feel deflated a bit right now. So they may be getting bumped out of the "LV" model if it's too strict.

I don't think EV can really tell us anything though. It's just as possible that any location might be lower because that group has decided to vote election day instead of early vote.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2021, 07:02:08 AM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.

Plausible they are overcorrecting for 2020?  But it can't just be assumed.  The geography of EV turnout thus far does look more R than 2020, not necessarily by enough to win though.

It's definitely possible. I also think it's possible that you have a lot of people who are not ticking off "very excited" to vote but are still going to vote nonetheless. Which may be Biden supporters, since they feel deflated a bit right now. So they may be getting bumped out of the "LV" model if it's too strict.

I don't think EV can really tell us anything though. It's just as possible that any location might be lower because that group has decided to vote election day instead of early vote.

That only makes the situation better for Republicans if it happens.  The reason the current EV data doesn't look like "enough" for statewide R's is the low turnout in the 3 rural Appalachian influenced districts.
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Person Man
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2021, 08:37:57 AM »

Basically the only way this race isn’t called at a reasonable time is if enough “nerds” “forget to vote” when they are the ones who usually remember to.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2021, 10:58:48 AM »

Why do people say that Virginia is so blue it cannot elect a Republican Governor when Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts?

VA-MD would be the appropriate comparison here, not VA-MA, but I’d say:

1) Considerably more inflexible/concentrated D base in VA (government workers, D.C. liberals, much higher proportion of non-white voters)
2) New England Republicans having more leeway to run moderate campaigns (especially on social issues) that are divorced from the national GOP while Southern Republicans have to placate a very conservative R base
3) The legislature being reliably D in most New England states and the R governor serving as a check on the legislature rather than setting the agenda in/with it
4) Much of the Southern D base being out-of-state transplants who are less susceptible to campaigns centered on "local issues" or "local pride"
5) VA races being more nationalized due to the off-year dynamic — there’s no way Hogan would have beaten Brown in MD in 2013 either.
6) Blue state voters being even less persuadable now than during the Obama era, with straight-ticket voting increasingly determining every statewide race in a blue state. (This was already the case in Senate races under Obama but now seems to apply to gubernatorial/non-federal races as well.)

The reality is that >95% of blue state Republicans are DOA from the beginning regardless of the quality of their campaign in this day and age, which basically makes gubernatorial races like MD/CT/VA/NJ/CO/etc. unwinnable for GOP in 2021/2022 and the foreseeable future even in GOP wave environments and/or with particularly strong Republican candidates. I also think Baker and Scott could have a much closer call in 2022 than people think (also Sununu if he runs for GOV again). Hogan probably would have lost reelection in 2022 if he had been eligible for another term.  

Youngkin struggling this much to even match Trump 2016 in a non-federal race also flies in the face of the notion that Maggie Hassan is the most vulnerable D Senator in 2022 — with partisanship and PVI ruling the day, it’s really hard to argue that the Democratic Senator from the Biden +7 state is somehow more vulnerable than the Democratic Senators from the Biden +<0.5 and Biden +2 states.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2021, 12:26:31 PM »

Why do people say that Virginia is so blue it cannot elect a Republican Governor when Republicans have won 6 of the last 8 gubernatorial elections in Massachusetts?


Youngkin struggling this much to even match Trump 2016 in a non-federal race also flies in the face of the notion that Maggie Hassan is the most vulnerable D Senator in 2022 — with partisanship and PVI ruling the day, it’s really hard to argue that the Democratic Senator from the Biden +7 state is somehow more vulnerable than the Democratic Senators from the Biden +<0.5 and Biden +2 states.


I think you need to take into account that T-Mac is actually a good candidate as a popular former governor. I mean just look at this poll - his favorables are 52/44 compared to Biden's 50/48. Why does your analysis fail to take into account that T-mac is popular?
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