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April 28, 2024, 10:33:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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Author Topic: FOX-VA-Tmac+5  (Read 2033 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 15, 2021, 05:30:02 AM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2021, 06:53:10 AM »

Turns out McAuliffe has a 11 or 12 point lead among registered voters so they're already assuming that turnout benefits Youngkin a lot.

So they’re making the same mistake as the California recall? Cool.

Yeah, while I don't believe McAuliffe is actually up 53-41 (which the OP conveniently left out) in RV, I do think it's interesting that pollsters appear to be making the same mistake they did in CA and creating ridiculous LV models that cycle out a ton of Democrats.

Plausible they are overcorrecting for 2020?  But it can't just be assumed.  The geography of EV turnout thus far does look more R than 2020, not necessarily by enough to win though.

It's definitely possible. I also think it's possible that you have a lot of people who are not ticking off "very excited" to vote but are still going to vote nonetheless. Which may be Biden supporters, since they feel deflated a bit right now. So they may be getting bumped out of the "LV" model if it's too strict.

I don't think EV can really tell us anything though. It's just as possible that any location might be lower because that group has decided to vote election day instead of early vote.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2021, 06:28:50 PM »

Against my better judgment I tuned into CNN the other night, and they were discussing how Democrats should be concerned about the Virginia race and how much the race was "narrowing," while citing this poll as evidence. Yeah, the media clearly still believes that Virginia is some sort of major swing state.

Obviously Democrats shouldn't be complacent about this race, but it has hardly "narrowed." McAuliffe has consistently been leading Youngkin by the mid-single digits. If anything that shows that Republicans can only get so much support in Virginia these days, even when the political headwinds benefit them. I can't wait for this election to just be over already. And if we're lucky McAuliffe will outperform his polling and maybe the media can concern troll Republicans about why people don't want to vote for their reactionary asses anymore in some parts of the country.

Right - the fact that this poll - that has a double digit margin for T-Mac among RV, is somehow evidence of "Narrowing" is once again - as we've talked about - just more proof that the media always plays into the GOP hands, and needs a "Dems in Disarray" narrative.
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